1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in this regard. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for caustic soda is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The near - month delivery pressure of caustic soda suppresses the upside space, but it may be affected by the overall sentiment of the energy - chemical sector due to geopolitical disturbances next week [5]. - The PVC market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes. Cost increases support the short - term PVC market, but if manufacturers do not cut production, the market will lack continuous upward momentum [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Core Contradictions and Exports - **Core Contradictions**: The supply - side has a weak willingness to cut production, while demand is expanding but affected by low profits. There are also disputes between short - sellers and long - sellers, with short - sellers focusing on high supply, high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, etc., and long - sellers emphasizing policy drive, cost support, and export market expansion [9]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 4108700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The export price has risen, but spot signing is still in a stalemate. Northeast Asian FOB prices have risen to around $340 per dry ton. The US caustic soda supply is disrupted and inventory is low, leading European traders to purchase caustic soda from Asia [10][17][20]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 84.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [5][34]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 540,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 22.13% and a year - on - year increase of 15.28% [36][38]. - **Maintenance**: There are fewer caustic soda maintenance plans in March. Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, such as Shandong Jinling (Dongying plant) planning to shut down for 15 days around March 20 [39][40]. - **New Capacity**: In 2026, caustic soda production will continue, with a capacity growth rate of over 3%. The total planned new capacity is 2.94 million tons [41]. - **Cost**: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2096 yuan/ton. Liquid chlorine prices are expected to be weak in March, and the compressed space of liquid chlorine and chlorine - consuming downstream industries can support caustic soda [45][48]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina**: In the first half of 2026, alumina production is concentrated, with an expected new capacity of 13.9 million tons for the whole year. Currently, alumina production has declined, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and profits are in a loss state. There is an expectation of production cuts [64][65]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: The pulp industry is in a off - season, with terminal profits being continuously compressed. The paper pulp industry has new capacity coming on stream. The finished paper industry has stable production. The viscose staple fiber industry has stable production, and the printing and dyeing industry has rising production. The water treatment industry has rising production, and the ternary precursor industry has rising production [73][78][83][85][87]. 3.4 PVC Core Contradictions and Spreads - **Core Contradictions**: There are disputes between short - sellers and long - sellers. Short - sellers focus on high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, and slow export growth. Long - sellers emphasize policy drive, cost support, and no new capacity in 2026 [92][93]. - **Spreads**: The PVC basis and monthly spread are weakening [95]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 82.08%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. There are fewer PVC maintenance plans in March 2026. In 2026, there is no new PVC capacity except for the release of Jiahua's capacity [101][106][107]. - **Demand**: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. After the Spring Festival, the downstream PVC industry's production has recovered. Since April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for PVC and other products has been cancelled, and India has launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese PVC resin, leading to an expected weakening of PVC exports [114][123][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the winter maintenance off - season, the overall supply - side production cut was still weak. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [156]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in the red, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it lacks sustainability for more than 3 months [156]. - On the demand side, caustic soda faces negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces a persistently weak real - estate demand pattern [157]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2250 has long - allocation value. PVC, despite significant profit losses, has a forward premium that limits the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [157]. - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly experience wide - range oscillations. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [157]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Core Contradictions and Export - The market has contradictions between high supply and high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, and slow - down in export growth. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali price spread is weak, and there are changes in the delivery area and delivery premium/discount [11]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustments. In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to the large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [21]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and currently, the Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [26]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure features rising production and inventory, with high - level operation and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - In January 2026, there were few caustic soda maintenance projects. In 2026, caustic soda production will continue to increase, with a capacity growth rate of over 3% [47][49]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The current liquid chlorine price is in a normal fluctuation range, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [50][54]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the first half of 2026, alumina production will be concentrated, with an expected annual new capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, alumina is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses, and there are expectations of production cuts [75]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, with continuously compressed terminal profits. The new pulp production capacity continues to be put into operation. The start - up of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has declined, as well as the water treatment and ternary precursor industries [86][98][100][102]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Core Contradictions and Price Spread - The market has contradictions of high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, slow - down in export growth, and a large forward premium in futures [107][110]. - The PVC basis and monthly spread have strengthened [111]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In January 2026, there were fewer PVC maintenance projects, and there will be no new capacity put into operation in 2026 [117][121][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [125][128]. - The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened, and the export tax rebate will increase competition pressure. The warehouse receipts are rising and still at a high level [133][139][147][153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are still expectations for demand during the peak season. The expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region, and the alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,481, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,531, and the basis was 50 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 14, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 770 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak liquid chlorine. There are expectations for demand during the peak season, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, leading to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend [3]