烧碱：宽幅震荡 PVC：短期偏强，关注成本变化 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱核心矛盾和出口 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC核心矛盾和价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述和政策解读 1 | 本周烧碱观点：宽幅震荡 | | --- | | 供应 | 中国10万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.9%，较上周（20260213-0219）环比+0.5%。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，节后氧化铝库存呈现总量微增、结构分化格局，现货情绪持续转暖。期货市场驱动不足，加上库存保持微增状态，盘面价格 深度回调再度与现货基本保持一致。当前氧化铝运行产能靠近平衡，短期现货流动性具备可控偏紧状态。非铝需求当前维持刚需，春节期 | | | 间部分行业停工，3月份开工将持续回升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Both caustic soda and PVC face oversupply, high inventory, and low - profit situations. In late 2025, both reduced production, but due to the winter maintenance off - season, the overall supply - side production cut was still weak. They will face significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and high - level inventory needs to be continuously digested in the first half of 2026 [156]. - Although domestic chlor - alkali production capacity is in the red, large - scale capacity elimination is difficult. In a low - profit situation, production cuts of PVC and caustic soda can drive rapid profit repair, but it lacks sustainability for more than 3 months [156]. - On the demand side, caustic soda faces negative feedback from low alumina profits, while PVC faces a persistently weak real - estate demand pattern [157]. - In terms of valuation, both have many supporting factors in 2026. Caustic soda has high volatility, with an annual volatility of over 30% in recent years, and its forward futures price between 2150 - 2250 has long - allocation value. PVC, despite significant profit losses, has a forward premium that limits the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [157]. - In 2026, caustic soda and PVC will mainly experience wide - range oscillations. Affected by maintenance expectations, differential electricity prices, and anti - involution sentiment, the continuous decline space is limited, but it is also difficult to rise continuously before the fundamentals improve substantially. Caustic soda has stronger price elasticity than PVC [157]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Core Contradictions and Export - The market has contradictions between high supply and high inventory, alumina production cut expectations, and slow - down in export growth. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali price spread is weak, and there are changes in the delivery area and delivery premium/discount [11]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustments. In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative export volume of caustic soda was 3.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The development of wet - process nickel may lead to the large - scale application of the magnesium oxide precipitation process, which may replace caustic soda to some extent [21]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia has declined, and currently, the Southeast Asian customers have not started new inquiries for spot orders [26]. 3.1.2 Supply - The market structure features rising production and inventory, with high - level operation and high inventory. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more is 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [40]. - In January 2026, there were few caustic soda maintenance projects. In 2026, caustic soda production will continue to increase, with a capacity growth rate of over 3% [47][49]. - In January 2026, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong Province decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has limited support. The current liquid chlorine price is in a normal fluctuation range, and the cost support for caustic soda is limited [50][54]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the first half of 2026, alumina production will be concentrated, with an expected annual new capacity of 13.9 million tons. However, alumina is currently operating at a high level, with rising inventory and losses, and there are expectations of production cuts [75]. - The demand in the pulp industry is in the off - season, with continuously compressed terminal profits. The new pulp production capacity continues to be put into operation. The start - up of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has declined, as well as the water treatment and ternary precursor industries [86][98][100][102]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Core Contradictions and Price Spread - The market has contradictions of high supply, high inventory, weak domestic demand, slow - down in export growth, and a large forward premium in futures [107][110]. - The PVC basis and monthly spread have strengthened [111]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In January 2026, there were fewer PVC maintenance projects, and there will be no new capacity put into operation in 2026 [117][121][123]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali plants is at a low level but has not reached the cash - flow cost. PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, but the social inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [125][128]. - The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month. The PVC export expectation has weakened, and the export tax rebate will increase competition pressure. The warehouse receipts are rising and still at a high level [133][139][147][153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are still expectations for demand during the peak season. The expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region, and the alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,481, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,531, and the basis was 50 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 14, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 770 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak liquid chlorine. There are expectations for demand during the peak season, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, leading to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend [3]