期货研究 烧碱：近月交割压力较大 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 03合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 1917 600 1875 -42 2026 年 2 月 6 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东：32 碱周均价 593 元/吨，环比-1.98%。年关临近，山东区域液碱库存持续高企，周内部分货源以 适度低价换量，叠加当前价格已处近年低位，下游及贸易商适量拿货，带动山东液碱库存阶段性回落，但库 存持续性仍需观察。 【市场状况分析】 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 此前市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产 量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在 4 月份之后（出口退税 导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变， 减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过后期也有大规模产能投产带来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The caustic soda market also has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation and some downstream start - up rates decreasing. The overall market is affected by both supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,905 yuan/ton (-67), the East China basis is -245 yuan/ton (+27), and the South China basis is -265 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (-60) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is -27.4 US dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (-0.70%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The export orders remain resilient [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,218 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -68 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 517.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -194.20 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 84.67% (-0.47%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis The caustic soda market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The futures price rebounds with the improvement of market expectations but then fluctuates and corrects. The inventory is accumulating, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries are decreasing [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [5]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5].