Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The delivery pressure of the caustic soda 03 contract is relatively high, and the weak spot market pattern is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the price decline of liquid chlorine in the later period will also lead to a pattern of cost increase and large - scale production reduction in the far - month contracts [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 1917, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 600 yuan/ton, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1875, and the basis is - 42 [1]. Spot News - The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 593 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. Near the Spring Festival, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong is continuously high. Some goods are sold at a moderately low price to increase sales volume. The downstream and traders purchase an appropriate amount of goods, driving the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong to decline periodically, but the sustainability of the inventory needs to be observed [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The core logic of short - selling caustic soda profits in the previous market was that liquid chlorine was strong, the cost of caustic soda declined, and manufacturers did not reduce production when it was not at the cash - flow cost, so the pattern of high production and high inventory continued. However, this logic will be challenged later because the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable after April [3]. - From the fundamental perspective, the weak spot market caused by the high inventory of caustic soda is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, the oversupply pattern of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production reduction suppresses the hoarding of caustic soda. However, there is also incremental demand brought by large - scale capacity construction in the later period. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, and the overall demand is difficult to support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for maintenance of chlor - alkali enterprises. Before the loss reaches the cash - flow cost, it is difficult for manufacturers to significantly reduce production [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The caustic soda market also has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation and some downstream start - up rates decreasing. The overall market is affected by both supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,905 yuan/ton (-67), the East China basis is -245 yuan/ton (+27), and the South China basis is -265 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (-60) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is -27.4 US dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (-0.70%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The export orders remain resilient [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,218 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -68 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 517.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -194.20 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 84.67% (-0.47%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis The caustic soda market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The futures price rebounds with the improvement of market expectations but then fluctuates and corrects. The inventory is accumulating, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries are decreasing [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [5]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5].