Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase the export cost of PVC, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - Operationally, short - term unilateral trading can be conducted within the range, with the 2605 contract reference range of 4700 - 4950. For arbitrage, a positive spread between the 3 - 5 contracts can be considered [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.63%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.3 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The supply pressure is still relatively high. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity, and the supply expansion is coming to an end [8]. - In 2025, the new production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity plan, and abroad, only the UAE has a 350,000 - ton plan to be put into production by the end of 2026 [25]. - Last week, the PVC output was 487,500 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the maintenance of facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan [25]. 2. Demand - The operating rate of downstream products continued to be weak. It is the off - season for terminal demand, construction in northern construction sites has stopped, and orders are poor. Since April 1st, 2026, the export tax rebate for PVC value - added tax has been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the potential increase in short - and medium - term export demand [8]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations are India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [65]. 3. Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory was 1.1441 million tons, a 2.69% increase from the previous week and a 52.49% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 27.27% increase year - on - year. The futures registered warehouse receipt volume increased again [8]. 4. PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC remained stable and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable from the previous week and was higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable from the previous week and was lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounded slightly from the previous week and was weaker year - on - year [19]. 5. Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide also remained stable from the previous week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai region reported at 2,400 yuan/ton. There was a decrease in calcium carbide supply in Shaanxi, and Xinjiang increased its external procurement due to environmental protection [82]. - The price of ethylene decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years [86]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine rebounded significantly and was higher year - on - year [90]. - Last week, the loss of calcium carbide - based PVC slightly expanded and remained at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC decreased, with a reduced loss year - on - year [93]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali continued to rise slightly from the previous week but decreased year - on - year [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The caustic soda market also has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation and some downstream start - up rates decreasing. The overall market is affected by both supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,905 yuan/ton (-67), the East China basis is -245 yuan/ton (+27), and the South China basis is -265 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (-60) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is -27.4 US dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (-0.70%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The export orders remain resilient [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,218 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -68 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 517.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -194.20 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 84.67% (-0.47%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis The caustic soda market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The futures price rebounds with the improvement of market expectations but then fluctuates and corrects. The inventory is accumulating, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries are decreasing [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [5]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The PVC market currently has a supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand. Although the expected cancellation of anti - dumping policies may reduce export pressure to India, it is still difficult to reverse the situation of over - supply. In the short term, valuations have declined to a low level, but they cannot support the current supply - demand situation. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2425 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Chlor - alkali integrated profit is continuously declining, and ethylene - based profit is at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.8%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.3%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 73.1%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week, and is expected to further recover next week. November's overall load is expected to remain high, with multiple new units starting trial production, resulting in continuous high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: The revocation of India's BIS certification policy has little impact on the current export fundamentals. The expected non - implementation of anti - dumping duties will reduce the pressure of exporting to India at the end of the year. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe loading is 40.2%, down 0.4% month - on - month; the film loading is 71.1%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile loading is 36.3%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season. Last week, PVC pre - sales volume was 67.6 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 31.5 tons, down 0.7 tons week - on - week; social inventory was 103.3 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week; total inventory was 134.8 tons, down 0.2 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. Even if the export pressure to India is alleviated, due to the weak domestic demand, it is difficult to absorb the increasing production, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the magnitude may improve [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a low level for the year, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, there are few maintenance activities on the supply side, and production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new units will start trial production. Domestically, the downstream is about to enter the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Exports are expected to maintain a high volume to India, but it is still difficult to absorb the excess capacity. The calcium carbide on the cost side is weak, and caustic soda prices are falling. In the medium term, after the new units are put into operation, the supply - demand situation is poor, and real - estate demand continues to decline. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old units to absorb the domestic excess capacity [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents multiple charts including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [15][16][18][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows charts of PVC factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory total inventory, warehouse receipts, and various profit charts, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [32][33][35][39][43]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have a slight increase. The report provides charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [49][50][51][54]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The report lists specific PVC production capacity expansion plans in 2025, including new plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical, with a total planned production capacity of 250 tons per year [59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are declining marginally and gradually entering the off - season. The report also shows charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [75][76][78][81][83][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the PVC market, the fundamental situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. The overall valuation pressure has decreased, but the supply pressure remains high due to low maintenance volume and new device production. Although domestic demand has improved slightly, it is still unable to support the significant increase in production, and the export outlook is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be unfavorable after new device commissioning. Therefore, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price is 870 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton month - on - month. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has further declined to the lowest level of the year, and the ethylene - based profit has remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.8%, down 0.7% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.2%, down 0.9% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.7%, down 0.1% month - on - month. The maintenance volume decreased slightly last month, and the average capacity utilization rate was higher than that in September. With the output from new devices, the supply pressure continued to rise, and the monthly output reached a new high. The maintenance intensity is expected to be low this month, and two new devices are planned to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain high [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the export volume rebounded to the highest level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline after that. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries continued to rise. The pipe load is 39.4%, down 1% month - on - month; the film load is 71.8%, up 7.9% month - on - month; the profile load is 37.6%, down 1.3% month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 49.6%, up 1.8% month - on - month. The downstream performance continued to improve, but was still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle and unable to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory is 33.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5 tons; the social inventory is 104 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6 tons; the overall inventory is 137.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9.5 tons; the warehouse receipts continued to rise. The market is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and with the expected weakening of exports, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No detailed text analysis content provided, only some charts about PVC spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, term structure, prices, positions, and trading volumes are presented [15][16][19]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has fallen to a historical low level, reducing the valuation pressure [44]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory and social inventory data are presented through charts, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][40]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices first rose and then fell. Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices showed different trends, with Shandong's price declining month - on - month [11][51]. - The semi - coke price stabilized and rebounded, the caustic soda price remained stable, and the ethylene price declined [54]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is planned to be put into operation, including multiple projects using different production processes in different regions [63][68]. - The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented, showing a slight decline month - on - month [11]. 6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC have increased, but the overall downstream demand is still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle [11]. - In September, the export volume rebounded to a high level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline [11]. - The relationship between PVC demand and real - estate indicators such as housing completion area and new construction area is analyzed through charts [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply of PVC continues the weak trend, with high - yield production maintained. Domestic and export demands are weakening, and social inventory is continuously accumulating. However, recently, as coal prices strengthen, the cost - chain support of coal - based production has strengthened, which may limit the downward space [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply and Demand Supply - The risk lies in the possible upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide if coal prices rise in the future, and the cost - side support is expected to strengthen [9]. - In 2025, the first - quarter has seen a new production capacity of 500,000 tons. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, and the annual production capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. The pressure of production capacity release remains high. - On August 8, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 77.75%, a 4.49% increase from the previous period (due to planned maintenance). The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23% [13]. Demand - **Domestic demand**: The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [10]. - **Export**: On August 8, the export order volume sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 5.08% compared to the previous period and increased by 1.89% year - on - year [14]. Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,400 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Disk Data - The PVC price was oscillating this week, mainly due to the game between cost and supply - demand. In terms of supply - demand, the supply remained high, new production capacity was yet to be fully released, while the downstream was still in the off - season, social inventory continued to increase, and registered warehouse receipts also increased. However, on the cost side, driven by the rise in coal prices, semi - coke enterprises raised prices, and the supply of calcium carbide enterprises decreased under the influence of power restrictions, leading to an increase in the cost of the industrial chain. - The basis was at a discount to the disk. This week, the East China 09 basis was around - 200; the 9 - 1 spread was weakly running at - 140. - The position of the 09 contract decreased to around 635,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 63,200 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional spread**: The spread between East and South China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 127, and the spread between East and North China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 27. - **Ethylene - calcium carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread oscillated around 307 [33]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium - carbide - based profit**: The current calcium - carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide - based production has shrunk, mainly because the cost has strengthened while the PVC spot price has been weakly oscillating. - For northwest integrated enterprises, the price of semi - coke, a cost factor, increased slightly this month, and the comprehensive profit decreased slightly to around 500 yuan/ton. - For enterprises purchasing calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide increased this week. The comprehensive profit of northwest enterprises purchasing calcium carbide decreased to around 800 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was compressed to near the break - even point [43][44]. - **Ethylene - based profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5% (excluding coal - to - methanol - to - ethylene). The adjustment range of the ethylene - based PVC spot price was limited. The profit of enterprises purchasing vinyl chloride was slightly profitable, while the profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene was a loss of 100 yuan/ton [45]. 3.5 Industry - related Product Situation Semi - coke - This week (August 8), the semi - coke price increased slightly. The medium - grade semi - coke in the Shaanxi market was traded at 620 - 650 yuan/ton. The cost pressure of semi - coke production enterprises remained under the firm coal price, and the production enthusiasm of most enterprises was average. Some enterprises had limited inventory, which supported a narrow increase in the ex - factory price, and the price remained stable after the increase. Downstream users mainly purchased on - demand, and the enthusiasm for inventory replenishment was not high. The limestone price remained stable, and the mainstream ex - factory price in Wuhai was 55 - 70 yuan/ton. - On August 8, the operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises was 54.22%, a 0.57% increase from the previous period. - In the future, the coal consumption of downstream power plants may increase due to high - temperature in August, and the cost pressure will still exist. In addition, the demand for small - sized semi - coke and foreign trade orders are expected to increase, so semi - coke still has room for improvement. The trend of coal prices and the inventory of semi - coke enterprises need to be monitored [66]. Calcium Carbide - This week (August 8), the overall price of calcium carbide shifted upward. The market price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased from 2,250 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply decreased due to maintenance or peak - shaving production, and the price center of calcium carbide in most northwest regions shifted upward. The purchase prices in central and northern China remained stable. - On August 8, the average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased to 68.89%, a 3.94% decrease from the previous period. One reason is the unstable power supply in Inner Mongolia, and some calcium carbide plants in Wuhai were affected by peak - shaving production. The other reason is that some calcium carbide plants in Ningxia and Gansu were affected by the increase in electricity prices and carried out maintenance or peak - shaving production. - In the future, some affected calcium carbide plants this week are expected to resume production, but the increase in the operating rate may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia. During the peak electricity - consumption season in August, the operating rate may be unstable. On the demand side, the demand for calcium carbide from PVC plants increased in the first half of August but is expected to be limited in the second half. The semi - coke price may be firm, and the impact of coal - related policies needs to be monitored. Overall, the supply - demand support for calcium carbide is relatively limited, but if the supply decreases more than expected due to peak - shaving production or if the coal price increase is transmitted to the entire coal - based cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [70][75]. Caustic Soda - This week (August 8), the caustic soda market changed little. The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton in some areas and increased by 10 - 110 yuan/ton in others. The non - aluminum demand in Shandong, Hebei, and South China was weak during the off - season, and the mainstream transaction price center shifted downward. The price in the southwest region increased slightly due to plant maintenance. - On August 8, the weekly operating rate of the caustic soda sample was 85.1%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period, and the weekly inventory was 461,700 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous period. - In the future, most chlor - alkali enterprises will operate normally, with sufficient supply. During the off - season, downstream users will mainly purchase on - demand. The overall price may be weak, but the price in some areas may increase slightly due to maintenance and low inventory [80]. 3.6 Supply - **Production capacity growth**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, Bohua Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - based plant was tested in July and is expected to be in full production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into production in the third quarter; Jiahua Energy's 300,000 - ton plant is planned for the third or fourth quarter, and other plants may be postponed. The annual production capacity growth rate may be around 6.4%, and the relatively certain growth rate in the third quarter may be 3.18% (900,000 tons/28.33 million - ton capacity) [84]. - **Operation and maintenance**: The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week (including long - term shutdown enterprises) was 54,240 tons, a decrease of 27,180 tons from the previous week. Only Ordos No. 2 Factory is planned to be under maintenance next week, and some previously maintained enterprises may resume production. The maintenance loss is expected to decrease next week. The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23%. The risk is that the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide may strengthen the cost support [85]. 3.7 Import and Export - In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a 63.80% increase from the previous month. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a 32.61% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia regions, and the import remains at a low level, with an import dependence of about 1%. - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a 27.61% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export from January to June was 1.9606 million tons, a 21.03% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.20%. The main destination is still India. - In June 2025, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor materials was 323,600 tons, an 8.09% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.091 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the same period last year. The main destinations are the United States and Canada [113]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [136]. - **Real estate**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 11.2%, and the decline slightly expanded; the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 20%. The investment confidence has not recovered, and the willingness to start construction is poor. The front - end indicators such as investment, new construction, construction, and completion all showed significant year - on - year declines, indicating that the capital pressure of real estate enterprises has not been substantially relieved, and the development willingness remains weak. Although the decline in the sales end has narrowed, a 3.5% year - on - year decline still shows that the recovery momentum of the demand end is insufficient, and there is a time lag in the transmission of policy relaxation to the market. The real estate market may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [155][156]. 3.9 Inventory - On August 8, some production enterprises tried to maintain prices, the arbitrage space for traders was limited, and the procurement enthusiasm of hedgers was average. Some factories received fewer orders. Some enterprises had high pre - sales in the previous period and mainly delivered previous orders this week. The salable inventory of sample production enterprises increased compared to the previous period, reaching 496,500 tons, an increase of 42,150 tons. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly compared to the previous period, reaching 327,250 tons, a decrease of 13,430 tons. - As of August 8, due to the decrease in maintenance on the supply side of domestic PVC, the increase in operation, and the normal market arrival, the market price first decreased and then increased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving orders was poor. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. As of September 1, the original sample inventory in East China was 405,000 tons, a 7.31% increase from the previous period and an 18.58% decrease year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 665,800 tons, a 6.60% increase from the previous period and a 20.76% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 52,600 tons, an 8.45% increase from the previous period and a 32.83% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,800 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [171].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current relatively low Treasury bond yields, China's economic recovery trend, and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and for iron ore, they can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - For ferroalloys, consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [22]. - Consider going long on the main contracts of crude oil and fuel oil [25][27]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, and urea requires attention to export changes [28][29][34]. - For PX, PTA, and other chemical products, consider range - bound operations [38][39]. - For ethylene glycol, short - term bottom - oscillating is expected, and cautious participation is recommended [41]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, they are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and cautious participation is recommended [42][43]. - For soda ash, short - term disk adjustments may occur, and short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [46]. - For glass, the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48]. - For pulp, the market is in a weak pattern [51]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. - Consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper, and have a bearish and oscillating view on tin [56][57]. - Nickel is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to decline in price [58][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the - money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [61]. - Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread, and consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [63][65]. - For cotton, sugar, apples, and other agricultural products, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [67][71][74]. - For live pigs, consider waiting and seeing, and for eggs, consider reverse - spread opportunities [77][79]. - For corn and corn starch, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [81]. - For logs, the market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in April was 50.7, and the comprehensive PMI output index declined, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic enterprise production and operation activities [5]. - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering various factors, it is recommended to remain cautious, and the volatility is expected to increase [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The market is worried about the decline in corporate profit growth due to tariffs, but domestic asset valuations are low, and policies have hedging space. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the increase in the risk of global recession due to tariffs, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][12][13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The shipment of coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. The futures may continue to decline, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. Consider opportunities in out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to OPEC's plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The increase in production may lead to price fluctuations, but factors such as Sino - US talks are favorable for crude oil. Consider going long on the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and fell sharply. The reduction in Singapore's inventory may support the price, and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Consider going long on the main contract [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost side rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The approach of the summer corn fertilizer preparation period and potential Indian tenders may affect the price. Pay attention to export policy changes [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the downstream demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand is affected by tariffs, and the cost side is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and range - bound operations are recommended [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and cautious participation is recommended [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is weak, and it is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate. Cautious participation is recommended [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The cost support is insufficient, the supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. In May, device maintenance will be concentrated, which may lead to short - term disk adjustments. The supply is high, and the inventory is stable [44][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to enterprise inventory and delivery volume data changes [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the supply is increasing, and the market is in a weak pattern [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be in a weak operation [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. Although the ICSG expects a supply surplus of refined copper, Sino - US talks may boost demand. Consider going long on the main contract [53][55][56]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply shortage may ease with the resumption of mines, and the downstream demand is affected by Sino - US trade. A bearish and oscillating view is taken [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern [58]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures continued to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude for soybean meal and consider out - of - the money call options for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices fell. The market is concerned about the May production outlook, and the inventory may increase. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean oil - palm oil spread [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed in the EU has increased, and China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Consider buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pullback [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market showed a volatile trend. The planting area in China has increased, and the demand is affected by tariffs. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [66][67][68]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market showed a volatile trend. Brazil is entering the production acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [69][71][72]. Apples - The domestic apple futures showed a sharp rise and then a fall. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the new - year production increase is expected. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs showed a slight decline. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the demand will enter a short - term off - season. Consider waiting and seeing [76][77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the pre - holiday stocking may provide support. Consider reverse - spread opportunities [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures closed flat, and corn starch futures rose. The supply of corn is expected to be in a surplus state, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [80][81]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state with no obvious driving force [82][83][84].