反倾销政策或取消， PVC出口压力减小 PVC周报 2025/11/22 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2425元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；山东电石价格报2805元/吨，周同比下跌25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周 同比持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率78.8%，环比上升0.3%；其中电石法81.3%，环比上升0.5%；乙烯法73.1%，环比下降0.1%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升， 主因信发等检修结束，下周预期负荷进一步回升。11月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，且有多套装置试车投产，供应压力持续较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度BIS认证政策撤销，但对目前出口基本面影响不大，另外反倾销税率市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the PVC market, the fundamental situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. The overall valuation pressure has decreased, but the supply pressure remains high due to low maintenance volume and new device production. Although domestic demand has improved slightly, it is still unable to support the significant increase in production, and the export outlook is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be unfavorable after new device commissioning. Therefore, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price is 870 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton month - on - month. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has further declined to the lowest level of the year, and the ethylene - based profit has remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.8%, down 0.7% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.2%, down 0.9% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.7%, down 0.1% month - on - month. The maintenance volume decreased slightly last month, and the average capacity utilization rate was higher than that in September. With the output from new devices, the supply pressure continued to rise, and the monthly output reached a new high. The maintenance intensity is expected to be low this month, and two new devices are planned to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain high [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the export volume rebounded to the highest level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline after that. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries continued to rise. The pipe load is 39.4%, down 1% month - on - month; the film load is 71.8%, up 7.9% month - on - month; the profile load is 37.6%, down 1.3% month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 49.6%, up 1.8% month - on - month. The downstream performance continued to improve, but was still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle and unable to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory is 33.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5 tons; the social inventory is 104 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6 tons; the overall inventory is 137.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9.5 tons; the warehouse receipts continued to rise. The market is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and with the expected weakening of exports, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No detailed text analysis content provided, only some charts about PVC spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, term structure, prices, positions, and trading volumes are presented [15][16][19]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has fallen to a historical low level, reducing the valuation pressure [44]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory and social inventory data are presented through charts, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][40]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices first rose and then fell. Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices showed different trends, with Shandong's price declining month - on - month [11][51]. - The semi - coke price stabilized and rebounded, the caustic soda price remained stable, and the ethylene price declined [54]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is planned to be put into operation, including multiple projects using different production processes in different regions [63][68]. - The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented, showing a slight decline month - on - month [11]. 6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC have increased, but the overall downstream demand is still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle [11]. - In September, the export volume rebounded to a high level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline [11]. - The relationship between PVC demand and real - estate indicators such as housing completion area and new construction area is analyzed through charts [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply of PVC continues the weak trend, with high - yield production maintained. Domestic and export demands are weakening, and social inventory is continuously accumulating. However, recently, as coal prices strengthen, the cost - chain support of coal - based production has strengthened, which may limit the downward space [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply and Demand Supply - The risk lies in the possible upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide if coal prices rise in the future, and the cost - side support is expected to strengthen [9]. - In 2025, the first - quarter has seen a new production capacity of 500,000 tons. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, and the annual production capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. The pressure of production capacity release remains high. - On August 8, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 77.75%, a 4.49% increase from the previous period (due to planned maintenance). The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23% [13]. Demand - **Domestic demand**: The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [10]. - **Export**: On August 8, the export order volume sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 5.08% compared to the previous period and increased by 1.89% year - on - year [14]. Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,400 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Disk Data - The PVC price was oscillating this week, mainly due to the game between cost and supply - demand. In terms of supply - demand, the supply remained high, new production capacity was yet to be fully released, while the downstream was still in the off - season, social inventory continued to increase, and registered warehouse receipts also increased. However, on the cost side, driven by the rise in coal prices, semi - coke enterprises raised prices, and the supply of calcium carbide enterprises decreased under the influence of power restrictions, leading to an increase in the cost of the industrial chain. - The basis was at a discount to the disk. This week, the East China 09 basis was around - 200; the 9 - 1 spread was weakly running at - 140. - The position of the 09 contract decreased to around 635,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 63,200 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional spread**: The spread between East and South China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 127, and the spread between East and North China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 27. - **Ethylene - calcium carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread oscillated around 307 [33]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium - carbide - based profit**: The current calcium - carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide - based production has shrunk, mainly because the cost has strengthened while the PVC spot price has been weakly oscillating. - For northwest integrated enterprises, the price of semi - coke, a cost factor, increased slightly this month, and the comprehensive profit decreased slightly to around 500 yuan/ton. - For enterprises purchasing calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide increased this week. The comprehensive profit of northwest enterprises purchasing calcium carbide decreased to around 800 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was compressed to near the break - even point [43][44]. - **Ethylene - based profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5% (excluding coal - to - methanol - to - ethylene). The adjustment range of the ethylene - based PVC spot price was limited. The profit of enterprises purchasing vinyl chloride was slightly profitable, while the profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene was a loss of 100 yuan/ton [45]. 3.5 Industry - related Product Situation Semi - coke - This week (August 8), the semi - coke price increased slightly. The medium - grade semi - coke in the Shaanxi market was traded at 620 - 650 yuan/ton. The cost pressure of semi - coke production enterprises remained under the firm coal price, and the production enthusiasm of most enterprises was average. Some enterprises had limited inventory, which supported a narrow increase in the ex - factory price, and the price remained stable after the increase. Downstream users mainly purchased on - demand, and the enthusiasm for inventory replenishment was not high. The limestone price remained stable, and the mainstream ex - factory price in Wuhai was 55 - 70 yuan/ton. - On August 8, the operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises was 54.22%, a 0.57% increase from the previous period. - In the future, the coal consumption of downstream power plants may increase due to high - temperature in August, and the cost pressure will still exist. In addition, the demand for small - sized semi - coke and foreign trade orders are expected to increase, so semi - coke still has room for improvement. The trend of coal prices and the inventory of semi - coke enterprises need to be monitored [66]. Calcium Carbide - This week (August 8), the overall price of calcium carbide shifted upward. The market price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased from 2,250 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply decreased due to maintenance or peak - shaving production, and the price center of calcium carbide in most northwest regions shifted upward. The purchase prices in central and northern China remained stable. - On August 8, the average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased to 68.89%, a 3.94% decrease from the previous period. One reason is the unstable power supply in Inner Mongolia, and some calcium carbide plants in Wuhai were affected by peak - shaving production. The other reason is that some calcium carbide plants in Ningxia and Gansu were affected by the increase in electricity prices and carried out maintenance or peak - shaving production. - In the future, some affected calcium carbide plants this week are expected to resume production, but the increase in the operating rate may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia. During the peak electricity - consumption season in August, the operating rate may be unstable. On the demand side, the demand for calcium carbide from PVC plants increased in the first half of August but is expected to be limited in the second half. The semi - coke price may be firm, and the impact of coal - related policies needs to be monitored. Overall, the supply - demand support for calcium carbide is relatively limited, but if the supply decreases more than expected due to peak - shaving production or if the coal price increase is transmitted to the entire coal - based cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [70][75]. Caustic Soda - This week (August 8), the caustic soda market changed little. The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton in some areas and increased by 10 - 110 yuan/ton in others. The non - aluminum demand in Shandong, Hebei, and South China was weak during the off - season, and the mainstream transaction price center shifted downward. The price in the southwest region increased slightly due to plant maintenance. - On August 8, the weekly operating rate of the caustic soda sample was 85.1%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period, and the weekly inventory was 461,700 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous period. - In the future, most chlor - alkali enterprises will operate normally, with sufficient supply. During the off - season, downstream users will mainly purchase on - demand. The overall price may be weak, but the price in some areas may increase slightly due to maintenance and low inventory [80]. 3.6 Supply - **Production capacity growth**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, Bohua Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - based plant was tested in July and is expected to be in full production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into production in the third quarter; Jiahua Energy's 300,000 - ton plant is planned for the third or fourth quarter, and other plants may be postponed. The annual production capacity growth rate may be around 6.4%, and the relatively certain growth rate in the third quarter may be 3.18% (900,000 tons/28.33 million - ton capacity) [84]. - **Operation and maintenance**: The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week (including long - term shutdown enterprises) was 54,240 tons, a decrease of 27,180 tons from the previous week. Only Ordos No. 2 Factory is planned to be under maintenance next week, and some previously maintained enterprises may resume production. The maintenance loss is expected to decrease next week. The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23%. The risk is that the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide may strengthen the cost support [85]. 3.7 Import and Export - In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a 63.80% increase from the previous month. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a 32.61% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia regions, and the import remains at a low level, with an import dependence of about 1%. - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a 27.61% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export from January to June was 1.9606 million tons, a 21.03% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.20%. The main destination is still India. - In June 2025, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor materials was 323,600 tons, an 8.09% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.091 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the same period last year. The main destinations are the United States and Canada [113]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [136]. - **Real estate**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 11.2%, and the decline slightly expanded; the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 20%. The investment confidence has not recovered, and the willingness to start construction is poor. The front - end indicators such as investment, new construction, construction, and completion all showed significant year - on - year declines, indicating that the capital pressure of real estate enterprises has not been substantially relieved, and the development willingness remains weak. Although the decline in the sales end has narrowed, a 3.5% year - on - year decline still shows that the recovery momentum of the demand end is insufficient, and there is a time lag in the transmission of policy relaxation to the market. The real estate market may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [155][156]. 3.9 Inventory - On August 8, some production enterprises tried to maintain prices, the arbitrage space for traders was limited, and the procurement enthusiasm of hedgers was average. Some factories received fewer orders. Some enterprises had high pre - sales in the previous period and mainly delivered previous orders this week. The salable inventory of sample production enterprises increased compared to the previous period, reaching 496,500 tons, an increase of 42,150 tons. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly compared to the previous period, reaching 327,250 tons, a decrease of 13,430 tons. - As of August 8, due to the decrease in maintenance on the supply side of domestic PVC, the increase in operation, and the normal market arrival, the market price first decreased and then increased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving orders was poor. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. As of September 1, the original sample inventory in East China was 405,000 tons, a 7.31% increase from the previous period and an 18.58% decrease year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 665,800 tons, a 6.60% increase from the previous period and a 20.76% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 52,600 tons, an 8.45% increase from the previous period and a 32.83% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,800 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [171].