当前时点如何看待焦煤价格？20251227 中长期来看，2026 年上半年和全年焦煤价格走势预估如何？ 近期焦煤价格的短期走势如何？ 短期内，焦煤价格主要受下游季节性补库行为的影响。根据过去五年的数据， 从年末到年初，下游钢厂通常会进行冬季补库，这一行为对焦煤价格有显著支 撑作用。在下游季节性补库期间，焦煤现货价格往往保持持平或偏强状态，而 在补库结束后，价格则会承压并出现回落。具体来看，今年（2025 年）钢厂 的焦煤库存高点出现在 1 月 24 日，前三周现货价格维持在 1,380 元/吨左右， 从第四周开始回落至 1,364 元/吨，并持续下降。因此，在未来 3 至 5 周内， 即从一月份开始到一月下旬，季节性补库将驱动焦煤现货价格保持较强支撑， 趋势性下跌的概率较小。 焦煤期货市场的短期波动情况如何？ 焦煤期货市场的波动频率较高，但整体走势与现货市场相差不大。在下游库存 见顶回落之前，期货市场不会出现明显的大幅度下跌。预计未来 3 至 5 周内， 下游季节性补库将使得焦煤期货维持震荡走势，并可能略微偏强。 摘要 短期内，季节性补库支撑焦煤现货价格，预计未来 3-5 周内价格维持强 势，趋势性下跌概率较 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the 2601 contract experiencing the largest drop, attributed to three main factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures are under pressure due to delivery warehouse inventory issues, with the current cost of Mongolian coal at 952 CNY/ton leading to a theoretical warehouse cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton, resulting in a delivery discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1]. - The increase in Mongolian coal imports, with weekly truck traffic reaching nearly 14,000 vehicles, represents a 58% month-on-month growth, reversing previous supply shortages [2]. - Weak demand from downstream steel production, with iron output decreasing by approximately 19,000 tons since early November, has led to a significant reduction in inventory replenishment needs [2]. Group 2: Price Influences - The decline in coking coal prices is exacerbated by a weaker thermal coal market, with national electricity consumption showing a negative year-on-year growth rate [2][4]. - The price drop in coking coal is estimated to be influenced by warehouse factors (approximately 100 CNY/ton), thermal coal price declines (around 75 CNY/ton), and market sentiment (about 205 CNY/ton), with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]. - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated, indicating that the decline in coking coal prices is not solely driven by thermal coal [4]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The potential for reduced imports of seaborne coal is increasing as the profitability of Australian coal imports has shifted from a profit of 155 CNY/ton to a loss, while the profit margin for long-term Mongolian coal contracts has narrowed to 190 CNY/ton [4]. - The overall supply situation is expected to remain weak, with domestic production typically declining towards the end of the year, limiting further increases in Mongolian coal supply [3].