【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：铁水恢复，港口库存累积 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内窄幅震荡，收于 814.5 元/吨，较前 一个交易日收盘价上涨 1.5 元/吨，涨幅+0.18%，成交 27 万手，持仓量 64 万手， 沉淀资金 114.66 亿。盘面价格在前高 840 附近承压回调，短期震荡偏弱对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 821 涨 0，超特粉 700 涨 0， 掉期主力 108.35(+0.1)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格无变化。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 857.4 元/吨，基差 42.9 元/吨， 基差小幅收缩；铁矿 1-5 价差 37.5 元，铁矿 5-9 价差 21.5 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，短期虽偏弱回调，下方空间或有限。 二、基本面梳理 年底冲量结束，海外矿山发运环比大幅下滑，澳巴和非主流发运环比同步走 弱，本期到港环比增加，预计前期高发运仍将支撑到港量高位运行，供给端存扰 动预期;需求端，铁水环比恢复，前期高炉检修后复产，钢厂盈利率小幅恢复， 补库逐渐开 ...

铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂金、钯金：进入整理期，寻找较理性价格点重新出发 强弱分析：铂金中性、钯金中性 价格区间：广铂主力500-600元/克、广钯主力390-460 元/克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 本周广铂及广钯跟随白银大步回撤，钯金最低价时几乎抹平广钯上市交 易以来所有涨幅，后随着期现、内外套利空头买平离场，尾盘有所反弹。 铂由于前期上涨势头更猛，回撤幅度也更大，主力合约周跌幅达到 22.08%，钯主力合约周跌幅15.33%。广铂和广钯的溢价在本周得到了 很好的修正，内外、期现价差迅速收敛，但还未收敛至0。外盘在周三触 底之后有所反弹，目前外盘铂钯周五均收在技术面良好 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant decline in coking coal futures and spot prices, with the 2601 contract experiencing the largest drop, attributed to three main factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures are under pressure due to delivery warehouse inventory issues, with the current cost of Mongolian coal at 952 CNY/ton leading to a theoretical warehouse cost of approximately 1050 CNY/ton, resulting in a delivery discount of about 100 CNY/ton [1]. - The increase in Mongolian coal imports, with weekly truck traffic reaching nearly 14,000 vehicles, represents a 58% month-on-month growth, reversing previous supply shortages [2]. - Weak demand from downstream steel production, with iron output decreasing by approximately 19,000 tons since early November, has led to a significant reduction in inventory replenishment needs [2]. Group 2: Price Influences - The decline in coking coal prices is exacerbated by a weaker thermal coal market, with national electricity consumption showing a negative year-on-year growth rate [2][4]. - The price drop in coking coal is estimated to be influenced by warehouse factors (approximately 100 CNY/ton), thermal coal price declines (around 75 CNY/ton), and market sentiment (about 205 CNY/ton), with respective contributions of 26.3%, 19.7%, and 53.9% [4]. - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal has fluctuated, indicating that the decline in coking coal prices is not solely driven by thermal coal [4]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The potential for reduced imports of seaborne coal is increasing as the profitability of Australian coal imports has shifted from a profit of 155 CNY/ton to a loss, while the profit margin for long-term Mongolian coal contracts has narrowed to 190 CNY/ton [4]. - The overall supply situation is expected to remain weak, with domestic production typically declining towards the end of the year, limiting further increases in Mongolian coal supply [3].

Report Overview - The report is a futures research report on urea by Guantong Futures, released on November 4, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the demand side supports the futures price, and the current futures price is still at a discount to the spot price. Seasonal storage enterprises should pay attention to the futures hedging opportunities [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and fluctuated strongly on the day. Both the futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] - Urea production continues to rise, with the daily output exceeding 190,000 tons. There is no large - scale gas and production restriction yet, and high - level daily production is expected in the near future [1] - Due to the strong demand for peak - winter energy, coal prices are expected to rise, and the cost of coal - water slurry process provides support for urea prices [1] - The demand for autumn fertilizers is ending, and other demands are mainly for fertilizer storage. The price of compound fertilizer for winter storage is still in the negotiation stage. After the phosphate fertilizer meeting, the procurement is expected to start [1] - The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased. The operating rate will gradually rise, and the finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1] - Due to the improvement in weather and the end of agricultural demand, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. Coupled with fertilizer storage demand, the urea inventory has decreased this period [1] - India issued a long - term contract tender for 2.5 million tons in 2026 on November 3, 2025, an increase of 1 million tons compared to 2025 [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,624 yuan/ton, closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The trading volume was 272,271 lots (+2,518 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 4,948 lots, and short positions increased by 1,723 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +3,341 lots, Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 302 lots, Minmetals Futures had a net short position of - 1,054 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of +997 lots [2] - On November 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, a net increase of 2,445 compared to the previous trading day [2][3] Spot - The spot price rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 160 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - On November 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends across different commodity sectors, with factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and policy changes influencing prices. For example, the Fed's interest rate decisions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and seasonal production patterns all play significant roles [3][4]. - Different commodities have distinct investment outlooks. Some are expected to be bullish in the short - term or long - term, while others are likely to be bearish or range - bound. For instance, gold may have short - term volatility but is supported by the de - dollarization logic, while some energy and chemical products may face supply - driven downward pressure in the long run [4][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: After a sharp decline in price, it is recommended to buy on dips as the short - term trend is a pull - back after hitting a new high. The Fed's rate cut and Sino - US relations, along with LME's position limits, have affected the market [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and overseas power supply issues, it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to decline as it returns to the fundamental surplus logic. However, the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. Buying call options on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the main position changes [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is expected to be strong due to high spot demand. High - frequency monitoring of inventory and warehouse receipt changes is recommended, and chasing long positions should be done with caution [5]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, considering factors such as the Fed's rate cut, Sino - US relations, and LME's position limits [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to have significant short - term volatility. Buying on support levels is recommended, and silver long positions should be reduced. The de - dollarization logic remains, but market reactions to the Fed's decisions and Sino - US negotiations are complex [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Hold long positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3060 - 3130 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions, with the I01 reference range of 780 - 810 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is marginally neutral - strong, and the inventory build - up may be slower than the historical average [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the JM01 reference range of 1270 - 1320 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is high, and there is an expectation of production contraction [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, focusing on trade negotiations. The domestic market is range - bound, following the cost side. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [8]. - **Corn**: The futures price is expected to be oscillating weakly due to factors such as damaged grain quality in North China, new grain listing pressure, and production cost reduction [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils are bearish with structural differences. An anti - spread strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to production areas' output and biodiesel policies [8]. - **Cotton**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with a range - bound strategy between 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton, considering factors such as the strength of the US dollar and Sino - US trade negotiations [8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound as the pressure eases [9]. - **Pigs**: The futures price is expected to be range - bound with improved demand and reduced second - fattening [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, as new devices are put into operation, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. Short positions or anti - spreads are recommended [10]. - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand pattern is improving. Long positions are recommended, and shorting the processing margin on rallies is advisable [10]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term pull - back and a medium - term range - bound trend. Band - trading is recommended [11]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. An anti - spread strategy is recommended [11]. - **PP**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Short positions or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered on rallies [11]. - **MEG**: In the long - term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [11]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the reduction of Russian oil exports [11]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more relaxed. Shorting on rallies or month - spread anti - spreads can be considered [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is balanced, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights a narrowing spread between near-term and future WTI crude oil futures, indicating a potential oversupply in the market due to increased OPEC+ production and seasonal refinery maintenance in the U.S. [1][2] - As of Monday, the WTI crude oil futures for November settled at $59.49 per barrel, while the May 2026 contract was at $59.02, resulting in a 47-cent spot premium, the smallest since January 16 of the previous year [1] - OPEC+ has raised its oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day this year, which is approximately 2.5% of global demand, raising concerns about oversupply [1] Group 2 - The WTI crude oil curve is flattening as the market anticipates a less tight supply-demand balance in early 2026 [2] - U.S. refinery utilization rates have declined for four consecutive weeks, averaging 92.5%, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of June [2] - Increased physical inventories and reduced refinery output are leading to decreased demand for spot crude oil, thereby alleviating upward price pressure [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The commodity market has mixed price movements, and the stock market experiences a significant decline on August 27. The economic situation is influenced by multiple factors, including global events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries [4][18]. - In the commodity market, some products like natural rubber and asphalt have price increases, while others such as glass and styrene have price drops. In the stock market, A - share indexes fall sharply, with most industry sectors in the red [4][18]. - For different commodities, specific supply - demand factors affect their prices. For example, in the agricultural products sector, the supply pressure of sugar is increasing, while the demand for some products like eggs is expected to drive a slight price increase [12]. - In the stock market, although the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down the rising pace, it is considered beneficial in the long - term. The market may need a significant shock to digest floating profit chips, and investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, natural rubber rose by 0.508% to 15,840.00, 20 - number rubber rose by 0.396% to 12,665.00, and asphalt rose by 0.605% to 3,492.00. While plastics, polypropylene PP, PTA, etc., had price drops, with PVC having the largest decline of 0.606% to 4,919.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **International Events**: The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held in Beijing from September 10 to 14 [7]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months; the new kinetic energy index of China's economic development in 2024 increased by 14.2% year - on - year [7]. - **Policy Announcements**: Jilin Province will implement the tax - refund policy for overseas tourists' shopping from September 1, 2025; the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month [7][8]. - **Industry Data**: From August 1 - 24, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 72.7 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase; the global economic and trade friction index in June was 92, showing a缓和 trend [8]. - **Market Forecast**: Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, and the global oil inventory to increase by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [9]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The sugar price shows a downward trend. The supply pressure is high, and the operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, paying attention to the support level of 5600 yuan [12]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the strategy is to maintain a bearish view, focusing on the support level of 2150 yuan [12]. - **Pig**: The national pig price is weakly falling. The supply - demand game continues, and the futures market is bearish [12]. - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to rise slightly, mainly driven by demand. The futures market suggests short - selling on rebounds and reverse spreads between months [12]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures are falling. The fundamentals have no major changes. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips in the short - term [14]. 3.3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the demand is weak. The price is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level of 1720 - 1730 yuan/ton and the Indian tender on September 2 [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: As the peak consumption season approaches, the caustic soda 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, and a bullish approach on dips is recommended [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The downstream inquiry is not significantly improved, and the supply is affected by safety inspections. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: For copper, due to market uncertainties, a bullish approach is recommended if the price breaks through the oscillation range. For aluminum, the price is expected to remain high as domestic consumption improves and inventory is at a low level [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market shows a north - south differentiation. The 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, and attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market has a wait - and - see atmosphere. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the steel price decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to actual production cuts and macro - sentiment changes [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is under pressure. The short - term is in a wide - range oscillation, and industrial hedging and speculation should be cautious [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price breaks through the support level. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then try to go long lightly, paying attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On August 27, A - share indexes fall sharply. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options change, and the implied volatility decreases for some options. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can trade according to the index trend [18]. - **Stock Index**: The Shanghai Composite Index adjusts, and other indexes are likely to follow. The market may need a shock to digest floating profit chips. Investors are advised to take advantage of low - buying opportunities [20][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current main contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the fluctuation of domestic macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. This week, EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39, resulting in a slight decrease in shipping capacity but still remaining at a high level. In August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025, the average weekly shipping capacities are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the futures market, the current contract for October has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract has the attribute of a peak - season contract, and continuous position - shifting and contract - rolling support it. However, the overall driving force is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions for the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of EC2508 is 2082.0 with a 0.10% increase, and its basis is 153.5 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 664.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 6.8 and a week - on - week increase of 13.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **Spot Indexes and Changes**: The SCHIE, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI spot indexes are updated at different frequencies. The current values, previous values, and percentage changes are provided. For example, the SCHIE index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48, with a 2.71% decrease from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week34 Quotations**: In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and OA Alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3]. - **Week35 Quotations**: MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars in week35. On Tuesday, HPL reduced its price by 400 to 2435 US dollars [3]. Related News On August 12, the Israeli military stated that the operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage." The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, said on the 11th that the operation in the Gaza Strip had entered a new phase, and the Israeli military would formulate the best plan to achieve its goals and protect the lives of the hostages [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session is 1159 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1210 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 51 yuan, with a 41.67% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants is gradually resuming, and the supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.01 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.58 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high. The weekly industry operating rate is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [2][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale production capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 100 tons [20]. 3.3.2 Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.04%. The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.57 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [23][26][29]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of the soda ash industry has changed. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the operating rate is 78.20%, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, the total demand is 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 tons [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]