1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai tin futures market may enter a period of consolidation in the short - term as the upward momentum has weakened after continuous price increases, but the spot - futures discount pattern provides some support [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of Shanghai tin (SN.SHF) showed a volatile consolidation trend today. The opening price was 399,930 yuan/ton, the highest was 401,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 387,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 391,320 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased, indicating that some funds started to take profits and leave the market [2] 3.2 Spot Market Basis Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the average price of domestic spot tin (Grade 1) was 394,110 yuan/ton, higher than the closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract, resulting in a futures discount of about 2,790 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - A wholly - owned subsidiary of Xingye Yinxing successfully issued a $200 million overseas sustainable development bond with a 3 - year term and a coupon rate of 7.40%. The funds will be used for project construction and working capital supplementation. This move helps the company expand overseas financing channels and has a positive demonstration effect on industry capital operation. Most of the A - share tin - related assets rose today, showing strong market confidence and indirectly supporting the Shanghai tin price [4][5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Technically, the upward momentum of the main Shanghai tin contract has weakened, and fundamentally, the spot - futures discount pattern supports the futures price. Considering the recent large price increase and the decrease in open interest, it may enter a period of volatile consolidation in the short - term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The demand side has relatively stable rigid demand. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, but the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount, and the market remains in a narrow - range oscillation [4] Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated within a narrow range during the day, closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton or 0.51% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 241,000 lots, the open interest was 516,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.866 billion yuan. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to further tests near the support level of 775 [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the main swap contract was 102.6 (- 0.2) US dollars/ton. The spot price was firm, while the swap price declined slightly [1] - The converted price of PB powder at Qingdao Port to the futures price was 831.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between the May - September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September - January contracts was 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure + positive basis, showing a slight break in the short term. From this perspective, the downside space may still be limited [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of shipments from Brazil. The arrival volume continued to decline, as the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to the arrival. There are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. On the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills are accelerating inventory replenishment, and as the replenishment progresses, the support for prices may gradually weaken [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory replenishment speed has accelerated, and the total inventory pressure is still accumulating. The market sentiment has weakened, and both the futures and spot prices are under pressure [2] - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and there is uncertainty about the post - holiday demand. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] Macro - level Analysis - At the domestic macro - level, it is judged that the positive policy expectations continue to be the macro - mainline. From the perspective of policy changes, the expectation that policies will be intensified in the first quarter to achieve a good start for the economy in the "15th Five - Year Plan" year is gradually strengthening, and the overall policy environment is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3] - In overseas macro - aspects, one of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but it is expected to have limited impact on the market. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure by the market. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to two risk events with high uncertainty: the situation between the US and Iran and the US government shutdown [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a slightly weakening trend with the futures contract showing a back structure and positive basis, and the overall disk is slightly weak in oscillation. The supply pressure eases due to reduced arrivals, and the demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated weakly during the day, closing at 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 357,000 lots, the open interest was 519,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.875 billion yuan. It shows a short - term weakening oscillation [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, decreased by 4 to 791 yuan, and Super Special powder decreased by 4 to 678 yuan. The main swap price was 101.95 (-0.85) US dollars/ton. The spot is firm, and the swap price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 830.1 yuan/ton, and the basis is 52.6 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion of the basis. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore is 17.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts is 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts present a back structure and a positive basis, showing a short - term breakdown and a weakened oscillation [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eases, but the inventory pressure is still increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable, the steel mill replenishment speed accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory increased significantly, the replenishment speed accelerated as the Spring Festival approached, and the total inventory pressure was still accumulating [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continues the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm is still slow, the price remains low, the upstream improvement is limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises is weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools are still being implemented, and the macro - environment is mainly for support. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas macro: The US consumption is still resilient, but the income growth slows down, the savings rate is at a low level, and consumption more depends on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal impetus. The core inflation continues to cool down, the commodity - end pressure eases, but the stickiness of service items still exists. The market trading focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to risk assets maintaining resilience, but policy uncertainty increases, and asset pricing differentiation intensifies [4].

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 1 日 生猪：旺季需求不及预期，抛压将加速 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（1.26-2.1） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.35 元/公斤（上周 27.35 元/公斤），本周河 南生猪价格 12.68 元/公斤（上周 13.28 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，集团企业增量出栏，南北方散户仍有惜售情绪，出栏意愿增量；需求端，下游屠宰旺季亏 损，旺季虽至，宰量缓慢增量。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.33KG（上周 124.5KG）， 出栏均重环比下降 0.14%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 11530 元/吨，最低价为 11150 元/吨，收盘价为 11220 元/吨（上周同期 11565 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2603 合约基差为 1460 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]

一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周五持仓量减仓 51271 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 1218321 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3124，最高 3174，收于 3128 元/吨，下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.48%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3260 元/吨， 相比上一交易日维稳。 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡延续 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 万吨，年同比增加 97.85 万吨，整体需求相比去年大 幅增加，显示有韧性。节前仍然有冬储备货需求支撑。 库存端：总库存环比上升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - **现货价格**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **基差价差端**: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - **Overseas**: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：现货价格持稳，港口成交转弱 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内延续震荡稍显偏弱，收于 783 元/ 吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌-5 元/吨，跌幅-0.63%，成交 21.8 万手，持仓 量 56.5 万手，沉淀资金 97.26 亿。期货盘面短期震荡稍显偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 794 跌-2，超特粉 672 跌- 2，掉期主力 102.9(-0.7)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格小幅走低。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 828.1 元/吨，基差 45.1 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 18.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，短期偏弱，下方空间暂且有限。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运有所增加，主要是澳洲有所修复，巴西和非主流国家仍有下 滑;本期到港继续走弱，前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰动 预期;需求端，铁水产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore fundamentals show that the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, the rigid demand on the demand side is relatively stable, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure + positive basis with a futures discount, showing a certain resistance to decline in the short - term. The overall downside space of the market is limited, and the recent trend is slightly stronger in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main iron ore futures contract strengthened during the day, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or +1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 229,000 lots, the open interest was 569,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.949 billion yuan. The futures stopped falling and rebounded near the predicted support level of 780, and will continue to rebound in a volatile and slightly stronger manner in the short - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose by +5 to 802, and Super Special powder rose by +5 to 680. The swap main contract was at 104.65 (+1) US dollars/ton. Both spot and swap prices rebounded [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 41.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, which is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and is in a volatile and slightly stronger state [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather [2] - Demand: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was relatively stable, and steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory under berthing increased, and steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: According to the December Federal Reserve Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.7%, the core CPI month - on - month was 0.2% lower than expected, and the weakening of commodity prices indicated that the tariff transmission had reached its peak. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, with the high - income group maintaining resilience and the low - income group becoming more price - sensitive. Attention should be paid to the upcoming GDP and inflation data [4] - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% (1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail), and its proportion in the overall retail increased. The final consumption contributed 52% to economic growth (a 5 - percentage - point increase). Service consumption was vibrant, with double - digit growth in retail sales in cultural and tourism fields, and movie box office increased by more than 20%. New - type consumption was active, with online retail sales increasing by 8.6%. Green and silver - haired economies became new growth points. In commodity consumption, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, furniture, and household appliances increased by double - digits. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. Also, the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly during the day, closing at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.5 yuan/ton or -0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 225,000 lots, the open interest was 575,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.922 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term, which is in line with the weak downward adjustment prediction [1]. - **Spot price**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped by -2 to 797 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped by -2 to 675 yuan/ton, and the main swap price was 103.25 (-0.95) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40.7 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan. The iron ore futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, and although it shows a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, the overall downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil, and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expected supply disturbances due to weather. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and there is still rigid demand support. Steel mills are in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm is still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Pay attention to the recovery height of molten iron before the festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still building up. The steel mill inventory is still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: According to the December Fed Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and the price of the commodity side weakened, indicating that the tariff transmission has peaked. Consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic, the high - income group maintains resilience, and the price sensitivity of the low - income group increases. Industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, with the December industrial output monthly rate at 0.4%, mainly driven by public utilities and manufacturing. The Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation is postponed to June [4]. - **Domestic**: According to the data from the People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs, policies are focused on new fields, such as a 25bp reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Export resilience exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December, significantly supported by emerging markets. Social financing data shows that corporate loans and bond financing are stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure are weak due to seasonal factors, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to 4.7%. There are clear clues for inflation improvement, and the PPI is expected to continue to recover [4].