Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current main contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the fluctuation of domestic macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. This week, EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39, resulting in a slight decrease in shipping capacity but still remaining at a high level. In August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025, the average weekly shipping capacities are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the futures market, the current contract for October has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract has the attribute of a peak - season contract, and continuous position - shifting and contract - rolling support it. However, the overall driving force is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions for the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of EC2508 is 2082.0 with a 0.10% increase, and its basis is 153.5 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 664.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 6.8 and a week - on - week increase of 13.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **Spot Indexes and Changes**: The SCHIE, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI spot indexes are updated at different frequencies. The current values, previous values, and percentage changes are provided. For example, the SCHIE index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48, with a 2.71% decrease from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week34 Quotations**: In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and OA Alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3]. - **Week35 Quotations**: MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars in week35. On Tuesday, HPL reduced its price by 400 to 2435 US dollars [3]. Related News On August 12, the Israeli military stated that the operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage." The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, said on the 11th that the operation in the Gaza Strip had entered a new phase, and the Israeli military would formulate the best plan to achieve its goals and protect the lives of the hostages [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session is 1159 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1210 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 51 yuan, with a 41.67% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants is gradually resuming, and the supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The weekly production of soda ash is 74.01 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.58 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high. The weekly industry operating rate is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [2][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale production capacity expansions in the soda ash industry. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 100 tons [20]. 3.3.2 Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.04%. The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.57 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [23][26][29]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of the soda ash industry has changed. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 tons, the production is 3650 tons, the operating rate is 78.20%, the apparent supply is 3536 tons, the total demand is 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 tons [33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a trading range, and it is advisable to seize hedging opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The rebound height of finished steel is relatively limited, and the market will enter a period of tug - of - war. It is recommended to use the volatile market to rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and the futures are at a premium to the spot. The market is in a state of indecision. Industrial customers can actively participate in selling hedging, while single - side trading can wait for a clearer situation. In the medium - to - long - term, the bottom of coking coal has not been confirmed [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Their prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [7]. - For iron ore, the overall weak trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Data** - On June 16, 2025, for far - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601), the closing prices were 2985.00 yuan/ton, 3101.00 yuan/ton, 675.00 yuan/ton, 1392.50 yuan/ton, and 810.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.78%, 1.04%, 0.52%, 2.35%, and 3.05%. For near - month contracts (RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, JM2509), the closing prices were 2990.00 yuan/ton, 3104.00 yuan/ton, 704.50 yuan/ton, 1371.00 yuan/ton, and 795.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.21%, 1.90%, and 2.84% [3]. - On June 16, 2025, the cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, spot prices, and basis data for various varieties were also provided, along with their changes [3]. **Steel Market** - On Monday, the spot and futures prices rebounded slightly, but the willingness to sell spot goods increased, and the price rebound was hesitant. Overseas, the Iran situation may have an indirect impact on the coal market in the capital market, but its influence on the spot market is weak. Domestically, the steel spot market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. The US tariff increase on steel - based household appliances and the suspension of domestic home appliance national subsidy policies have increased the supply - demand pressure in the hot - rolled coil market. It is recommended to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke Market** - In the spot market, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and port prices are weak. In the futures market, the black chain index has strengthened, and coking coal led the rise. Macroscopically, domestic policies are mainly for bottom - support, and overseas disturbances are numerous. Industrially, steel demand is seasonally weak, and steel production has decreased. Coking coal inventories at the mine mouth continue to accumulate, but supply is affected by safety and environmental issues. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and industrial customers can participate in selling hedging [6]. **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market** - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, but direct demand has weakened, and cost support has declined. For silicomanganese, supply has increased from a low level, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened. Their prices are expected to be under pressure [7]. **Iron Ore Market** - The overall weak trend of iron ore remains unchanged. Ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories have shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. The black market is entering the off - season, and downstream pressure is intensifying. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. **Investment Strategies** - For steel, maintain a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management, and rotate inventory for spot goods. For coking coal and coke, industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging. For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, buy put options at high prices [9].

Group 1: Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2507 opened at 59,940 yuan/ton and closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 392,469 lots, and the open interest was 293,695 lots, a decrease of 32,777 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 567,772 lots, an increase of 18,973 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the contracts increased by 207,843 lots from the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.49. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,154 lots, a decrease of 825 lots from the previous trading day [2] - The lithium carbonate market showed a gap - down and then a rebound, with wide - range fluctuations during the session and a short - covering rally at the end of the session [2] Group 2: Spot Market - On May 27, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 60,800 - 63,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 59,900 - 60,900 yuan/ton, also down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to move down [3] - The supply - demand of the lithium carbonate market remained in an oversupply state, and there was no strong support for price increases. The demand side was stable with limited incremental demand, while the supply side had a significant incremental expectation as the non - integrated lithium salt plants got the opportunity to hedge and resume production with the slight rebound of the futures. Also, the cost support was weakening due to the continuous decline of lithium ore prices, further suppressing the lithium carbonate price [3] Group 3: Strategy - Fundamentally, the situation was weak, but the open interest of the 07 contract was high, and subsequent position reduction might cause large fluctuations. Short - term trading needed to pay attention to risks [4] - Unilateral strategy: Sell on rallies for hedging [4] - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [4] Group 4: Core View - The lithium carbonate spot was weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of futures position changes on the short - term market [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the A-share market, suggesting a focus on trading opportunities post the Two Sessions [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with the CSI 300 index facing resistance at the 850-day moving average, while the weekly indicators turned positive [2]. - The report highlights that the implied volatility of options has decreased, with a notable shift in the maximum open interest strike prices for both call and put options remaining stable [2][33]. - The report emphasizes the performance of the CSI 1000 index, which reached a new high for the year, with indicators showing a bullish trend [2][37]. Summary by Sections 1. CSI 300 Index Options (IO) - The CSI 300 index's weekly K-line chart shows a bullish trend, with the index closing above the 250-week moving average [9]. - The current month’s futures contract is trading at a discount to the underlying asset, while the next month’s contract shows a stable basis [19][22]. - The report notes a decrease in trading volume for options, but an increase in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [27][30]. 2. CSI 1000 Index Options (MO) - The CSI 1000 index has maintained a bullish trend, with the weekly indicators remaining positive [35]. - The current month’s options pricing reflects a slight decline, with the maximum open interest for call options at 6600 and for put options at 6000, indicating market positioning [38][31]. - The implied volatility for the CSI 1000 options has shown fluctuations, initially decreasing before rising again [41].