Report Core View - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract, including strong cost support, supply contraction, rigid demand and restocking, resonance of technology and funds, and positive policy expectations [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued to set records with 16 consecutive positive days, and the trading volume has continued to increase. Technically, there is a small - cycle adjustment [7] - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is also advised when participating in the gold market [10] - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. The demand side has weak domestic demand support. Technically, after a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged for iron ore [12][13] - For glass, technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [15][16] - It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle. The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] - As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports has continued to accumulate, and the futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22] Summary of Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Cost support: The spot price has reached the coal mine cost line, and some have fallen below the imported coal cost. A strong support is formed around 1,000 yuan/ton, and the valuation is at a historical low with sufficient repair momentum [4] - Supply: Safety inspections in major production areas have been upgraded, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have shut down for maintenance in advance, and the production capacity in Yulin has been reduced by about 19 million tons, resulting in a tight supply of high - quality coking coal [4] - Demand: Steel mills will resume production after maintenance in January, and the daily hot metal output is expected to rise to around 2.3 million tons. The coking coal inventory of steel mills is at a medium - low level, and the rigid restocking demand before the Spring Festival is clear [4] - Technology and funds: The price has broken through the previous shock platform, with a MACD golden cross and a long - arranged moving average. The main contract has increased positions and risen, and the willingness of bulls to enter the market is stronger than that of bears, with active capital layout [4] - Policy: The "anti - involution" and capacity optimization of the steel industry are advancing, and macro - level stable growth measures have been intensified. The 2605 contract bears the pricing expectation of demand recovery in the second quarter, and both sentiment and valuation are being repaired [4] Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued its upward trend. Every intraday adjustment is a good opportunity to buy on dips [6][7] Gold - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is required when participating [10] Iron Ore - Supply: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented [13] - Demand: Except for exports, the domestic demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is still weak [13] - Technology: After a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [12] Glass - Supply and demand: The daily melting volume has continued to decline slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [16] - Technology: It is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [15] Methanol - Supply: It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle [19] - Price: The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] Pulp - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.007 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the daily shipment speed in Qingdao Port has not changed much [22] - Market: The futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22]

Group 1 - The recent surge in coke prices is attributed to cost support and improved demand, with major steel mills in Tangshan raising wet coke prices by 50 CNY/ton and dry coke by 55 CNY/ton effective from July 29, 2025 [1][2] - The coke market has experienced a total increase of 200 CNY/ton since July 15, with expectations of further increases totaling around 300 CNY/ton [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in coke prices, with an average drop of 33.12% year-on-year due to weak domestic demand in the steel industry [1][2] Group 2 - The rebound in coke prices is driven by a decrease in domestic supply of coking coal since mid-June due to environmental and safety regulations, leading to a better supply-demand balance [2] - The price of coking coal has increased significantly, with a maximum rise of 350-400 CNY/ton, which has substantially raised the production costs for coke [2][6] - Despite the price increases, many coke enterprises are still facing losses, with only two out of seven forecasted companies expected to avoid losses in the first half of 2025 [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for coke remains stable, with steel mills actively replenishing their inventories, as indicated by an average daily supply of 2.413 million tons of molten iron in July, which is 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3] - The profitability of the steel industry has improved, with several companies forecasting significant profit increases, contrasting with the ongoing losses faced by coke producers [4][5] Group 4 - Short-term forecasts suggest that coke prices may continue to rise due to high coking coal prices and strong demand from steel mills, with a potential fifth price increase of 50 CNY/ton expected [7][8] - Long-term expectations indicate that the traditional peak consumption season in September and October may lead to increased demand for coke, although there are concerns about potential production cuts in the steel sector [8]