Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with futures prices rebounding and spot auction prices showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline. The market anticipates limited downside potential, with expectations for replenishment ahead of the National Day holiday [5]. Supply - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 85.25%, up by 4.33% week-on-week. The raw coal output is 8.6107 million tons, an increase of 437,600 tons week-on-week. The raw coal inventory stands at 1.9977 million tons, up by 57,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - According to Steel Union, as of September 10, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 82.7%, up by 6.9% week-on-week. The daily raw coal output is 1.856 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons week-on-week [2]. Demand - As of September 11, the average daily coke production of independent coking plants is 668,000 tons, up by 24,000 tons week-on-week. The average daily coke production of 247 steel mills is 466,000 tons, resulting in a total production of 1.134 million tons per day, an increase of 34,000 tons week-on-week [3]. - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4055 million tons, up by 117,100 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.83%, an increase of 3.43% [3]. Inventory - As of September 11, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, 16 ports, and border ports) decreased by 236,000 tons to 35.759 million tons. The inventory at 523 coal mines decreased by 11,200 tons to 494,900 tons [4]. - The inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 4,700 tons to 458,400 tons, while the inventory at all coking plants decreased by 365,000 tons to 8.835 million tons [4]. Market Strategy - The market strategy suggests taking long positions on the coking coal 2601 contract at lower prices, with a reference range of 1,070 to 1,300. There is also a recommendation to arbitrage long coking coal against short coke, while being cautious of significant market fluctuations [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is attributed to rumors of increased resource taxes in Mongolia, heightened expectations of supply contraction, and technical corrections following previous declines. However, the overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has not materially improved, indicating that the current rebound may be temporary and driven by market sentiment [2][7] - Short-term fluctuations in coking coal futures may still have room for oscillation and rebound, but medium-term demand remains under pressure due to seasonal factors. Long-term focus should be on demand policies and the rebalancing of coking coal supply and demand [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of June 6 was 609 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1270 RMB/ton [6][20] - Coking coal futures saw a week-on-week increase of 7.2% to 779 RMB/ton, driven by supply contraction expectations and technical corrections [2][7] Coking Coal Supply and Demand - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 485.4 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.5%. The total coal inventory was 118.26 million tons, up by 1.0% week-on-week [21][38] - The supply side showed a slight decrease in production capacity utilization in the "Three West" regions, indicating potential supply constraints [21][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for marginal allocation include: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 2. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment Energy, New Hope Energy 3. Elastic growth targets: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H), Huayang Co., Jin控煤业 4. Coking coal: Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma Group [8]