截至9月11日，日均铁水产量240.55万吨/日，环比+11.71万吨/日；高炉开工率83.83%，环比+3.43%；高 炉炼铁产能利用率90.18%，环比+4.39%；钢厂盈利率60.17%，环比-0.87%。 【库存】 【期现】 昨日焦煤期强势上涨走势，截至9月16日收盘，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约上涨53.0（+4.46%） 至1240.5，焦煤远月2605合约上涨45.0（+3.50%）至1329.5，1-5价差走强至-89.0。S1.3 G75山西主焦煤 （介休）仓单1200元/吨，环比持平，基差-40.5元/吨；S1.3 G75主焦煤（蒙5）沙河驿仓单1150元/吨 （对标），环比+30.0，蒙5仓单基差-90.5元/吨。焦煤期货震荡反弹，山西竞拍成交企稳，蒙煤现货报 价反弹。 【供给】 截至9月11日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率85.25%，环比+4.33%，原煤产量861.07万吨，周环比 +43.76万吨，原煤库存199.77万吨，周环比+5.70万吨，精煤产量442.45万吨，周环比+23.32万吨，精煤 库存123.51万吨，周环比+6.81万吨。 截至9月10日，钢联统计 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is attributed to rumors of increased resource taxes in Mongolia, heightened expectations of supply contraction, and technical corrections following previous declines. However, the overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has not materially improved, indicating that the current rebound may be temporary and driven by market sentiment [2][7] - Short-term fluctuations in coking coal futures may still have room for oscillation and rebound, but medium-term demand remains under pressure due to seasonal factors. Long-term focus should be on demand policies and the rebalancing of coking coal supply and demand [2][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Tracking Summary - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of June 6 was 609 RMB/ton, down by 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1270 RMB/ton [6][20] - Coking coal futures saw a week-on-week increase of 7.2% to 779 RMB/ton, driven by supply contraction expectations and technical corrections [2][7] Coking Coal Supply and Demand - As of June 5, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 485.4 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.5%. The total coal inventory was 118.26 million tons, up by 1.0% week-on-week [21][38] - The supply side showed a slight decrease in production capacity utilization in the "Three West" regions, indicating potential supply constraints [21][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for marginal allocation include: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry 2. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment Energy, New Hope Energy 3. Elastic growth targets: Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H), Huayang Co., Jin控煤业 4. Coking coal: Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Pingmei Shenma Group [8]