智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，1-5月份，煤炭供给虽增速下降，但仍处高位，且煤炭需求 疲软，化工需求较好。价格方面，煤价中枢显著下降，长协煤价格相对平稳。政策方面，以史为鉴，预 计在煤炭供需基本面偏弱的情况下，政策出台的预期在增加，供应侧减产是供需平衡的核心，通过不同 情形假设，预计6-12月至少需要减产0.57亿吨才能稳住煤价;焦煤基本面承压，需要动力煤供需边际改善 后，带动焦煤价格企稳反弹。整体看，煤炭进口下降，国内煤炭产量可能边际减量，维持行业"看好"评 级。逢低布局高股息动力煤公司。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 分行业表现看，化工行业增速最快，累计消费1.4亿吨，同比增长10.8%;钢铁行业累计消费2.3亿吨，同 比增长2.8%;建材行业累计消费1.4亿吨，同比下降1.9%;电力行业降幅较大，累计消费9.4亿吨，同比减 少2.7%。 价格：煤价中枢下移，长协煤价平稳 各煤种价格均下跌：从1-5月煤炭平均价格看，各煤种均下跌，动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤价格均值分别 为740.0、1406.5、898.4元/吨，较2024年同期分别下跌191.2、886.1、68.9元/吨，同比下降20.5%、 38. ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 焦煤期货为何反弹？持续性如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周焦煤期货周环比上涨 7.2%至 779 元/吨。从原因上看，焦煤期货反弹或主要和蒙古资源税 上调传闻、供应收缩预期增强、期货超跌修复有关。然而我们认为，本轮反弹或为技术修复+情 绪驱动带来的阶段性行情，焦煤供需并未实质性改善。因此从基差修复维度来看短期焦煤期货 或仍存震荡反弹空间，但从中期来看焦煤淡季需求依旧承压，长期则重点关注需求政策与焦煤 供需再平衡情况。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 投资建议 边际配置推荐：1）长久期稳盈利龙头： ...

曙光已现，煤炭终迎年初至今配置良机 行情回顾（2025.5.12~2025.5.16）： 中信煤炭指数 3,244.52 点，上涨 1.65%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.53pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 6 位。 年初至今，动力煤价格累计下行 139 元/吨，主焦价格累计下行 180 元/吨，中信煤 炭指数累计下跌 11.7%，位列倒数第一。 市场经过深度调整后，筑底信号逐步显现，随着基本面的边际改善和政策的不断加码 （见后文），黎明前的黑暗正在消散，曙光已现，左侧布局的黄金窗口悄然开启，此 刻播种的人，将最早触到破土而出的春芽。 gszqdatemark 】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 05 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：liuliyu@g ...

证券研究报告 一季度业绩下降，静待需求好转 ➢ 业绩总结：一季度煤炭板块业绩整体下降。 ➢ 从整体看，2025年Q1中信煤炭板块归母净利润合计241.2亿元，同比下降41.5%。分子版块来看， 动力煤板块利润下降35.9%，无烟煤板块利润下降37.6%，炼焦煤板 块利润下降69.5%，焦炭板块利润减亏，其他煤化工板块利润下降64.5%。37家上市公司中，25家上市公司盈利，比去年同期减少2家。25家盈利的上市公司中，归属 母公司净利润同比下降的有23家。 投资建议：一季度受假期、气温偏高等因素影响，需求偏弱，供给增加，煤价下降，但动力煤企业因长协价格制度，一季度业绩相对偏稳。需关注后续需求好转；预计 煤价短期仍有下行压力，5月中旬有望反弹。政策方面，煤炭协会发倡议要求，控制产量，提高质量。当前需求或为全年底部，供应下降，旺季煤价有望反弹，维持行业 "看好"评级。逢低布局高股息动力煤公司。优先关注动力煤公司中国神华、陕西煤业、中煤能源等;焦煤公司关注淮北矿业、潞安环能等;同时关注利润同比改善的焦 炭公司金能科技、美锦能源等。 风险提示：海外经济放缓；产能大量释放；新能源的替代；安全事故影响。 ——2025年一季 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the social electricity consumption in March increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the supply-demand situation is expected to gradually improve in the second quarter [11][68] - The coal price has shown signs of stabilization, with expectations of a rebound as inventory levels decrease and demand increases in the upcoming summer peak [7][32][70] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics show a slight decline in thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price reported at 670 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [7][13] - The coal mining operating rate as of April 16 was 90.2%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase week-on-week [16] - The inventory of thermal coal at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, indicating a slight rise in supply [16][18] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the coal industry index rose by 2.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.0 percentage points [68] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with prices rising by 50-55 RMB/ton, supported by strong demand from steel production [56][66] - The report notes that the first two months of 2025 saw a significant decline in industry profits, with total profits of 50.7 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year [71][73] Key Companies - Key companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [7][71] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [7][71] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low price-to-book ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][71]

Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a high-level retreat in the first two months of 2025, underperforming the market by 11.8 percentage points, ranking last among all industry indices [4][14]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize and gradually recover due to improved industrial demand, slowing production growth, and reduced import expectations [4][29]. Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In the first two months of 2025, the coal sector has declined by 10.0%, ranking 30th out of 30 in the industry indices [4][14]. - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke have seen respective declines of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 7.4% in the first two months [14]. - As of March 18, 2025, the coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 10.4 times, which is at a historical average level, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.33 times, also at a historical average [19][23]. Group 2: Coal Market Review - The growth rate of electricity consumption has dropped to 1.3% in the first two months, while non-electric demand has shown overall improvement [4][29]. - Domestic coal prices have been weak since the beginning of the year, with thermal coal prices stabilizing in March [29]. - The import growth rate of coal has decreased to 1.8% in the first two months of 2025 [4][29]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - Port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, while prices in production areas have generally rebounded [4][29]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize in the short term due to inventory reductions at southern ports and coastal power plants [4][29]. - Coking coal prices have continued to decline, but demand is expected to improve as the spring construction season approaches [4][29]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, with the sector's valuation and dividend advantages becoming more pronounced [4][29]. - The anticipated average coal price for 2025 may decline, but leading companies are expected to maintain stable profitability due to effective cost control [4][29]. - Key companies with robust dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, while companies with lower valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [4][29].