焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1139.50 | -19.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1639.00 | -10.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 914280.00 | -19994.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49027.00 | +154.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1234.5, up 0.98%. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1760.0, up 2.00%. It is also recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend. Investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main - contract was 1234.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main - contract was 1760.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan. The JM futures contract持仓量 was 907095.00 hands, down 17976.00 hands; the J futures contract持仓量 was 53441.00 hands, up 822.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 115319.00 hands, up 5854.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5802.00 hands, down 216.00 hands. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 93.50 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1690.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1038.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main - contract basis was - 95.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. The price of coking coal ex - factory in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main - contract basis was 35.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.50 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 310.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01 percentage points; the monthly raw coal output was 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194.00 million tons, up 4.10 million tons. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 515.32 million tons, up 48.97 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 940.41 million tons, up 56.87 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 million tons. The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.34 million tons, down 3.39 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 12.74 days, down 0.07 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.42 days, up 0.13 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, down 0.05 percentage points. The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00 yuan/ton. The monthly output of coke was 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel was 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to propose the first - round price increase for coke on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [2]. - On September 24 local time, the US announced to reduce the tariff on imported cars from the EU to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were subject to administrative penalties for failing to provide reclamation as required and comply with production quotas, and were ordered to suspend operations for up to 60 days. Most of the coal mines shut down were long - term shut - down mines, so the impact on Indonesia's current coal production and exports was limited [2]. - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", proposing to strictly control the production capacity of cement and glass. No new production capacity of cement clinker and flat glass is allowed, and new or renovated projects must formulate production capacity replacement plans [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal on September 25, the 2601 contract closed at 1234.5, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the disk. Macroscopically, according to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major import ports of Ganqimao Du, Ceke, and Mandula will be closed from October 1 to 7, 2025, and will resume normal customs clearance on October 8. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has continued to rise, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is neutral. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - For coke on September 25, the 2601 contract closed at 1760.0, up 2.00%. On the spot side, after the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, Guangdong issued an emergency notice on doing a good job in the defense of Typhoon "Huajiacha" and entered the typhoon defense state immediately. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current iron - water output was 241.02 million tons, up 0.47 million tons, with the iron - water fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On May 29, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 759.0, down 3.98%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 736, down 4 yuan/ton. With a loose supply, stable mine production, and an increase in clean coal inventory, the 4-hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [2]. - On May 29, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1332.0, down 1.62%. The second - round price cut in the spot market has been implemented. Loose raw material supply weakens cost support, and hot metal production has declined from its high. The average loss per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 15 yuan/ton this period. The 4 - hour K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the JM main contract was 759.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the J main contract closed at 1332.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan. The JM futures contract持仓量 increased by 19342.00 hands to 634111.00 hands, while the J futures contract持仓量 decreased by 882.00 hands to 59538.00 hands [2]. - **Net Positions and Spreads**: The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 50247.00 hands, an increase of 6477.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was 1449.00 hands, an increase of 930.00 hands. The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 19.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 18.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 430.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 755.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of Russian coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 117.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The price of Australian imported coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, down 170.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan second - grade metallurgical coke was 1525.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1440.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1340.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The JM main contract basis was 291.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; the J main contract basis was 188.00 yuan/ton, down 48.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Inventory and Production**: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 310.98 million tons, down 5.50 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 222.07 million tons, up 7.33 million tons. The raw coal production was 38930.60 million tons, down 5127.60 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3783.00 million tons, down 90.00 million tons [2]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 535.49 million tons, down 9.98 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 276.68 million tons, down 4.70 million tons [2]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises was 865.73 million tons, down 19.20 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 798.75 million tons, up 7.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply and Demand**: The import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons. The production of coking coal was 4161.47 million tons, unchanged; the production of coke was 4160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, up 0.17%; the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 15.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Steel Production**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.67%, down 0.46%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.30%, down 0.44%. The crude steel production was 8601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Putin put forward conditions to end the Ukraine war, including written commitments from Western leaders to stop NATO's eastward expansion, and Russia hopes for Ukraine's neutrality, lifting of some Western sanctions, and resolution of frozen sovereign assets [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing said that platform companies should use traffic resources to support high - quality products and services, follow fair rules, and curb malicious competition [2]. - The Trump administration ordered US semiconductor design software companies to stop selling services to Chinese enterprises [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 27, the JM2509 contract closed at 799.5, down 0.12%. On the spot side, the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was reported at 755. With the third round and fourth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections fully launched, the supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the clean coal inventory continues to increase this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. - On May 27, the J2509 contract closed at 1364.0, down 0.94%. On the spot side, the second - round price cut has been implemented. There will be the strongest rainfall process in southern China from May 27 - 29. Fundamentally, the loose supply of raw materials weakens the cost support, and the molten iron output has fallen from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 15 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为799.50元/吨，环比持平；J主力合约收盘价为1364.00元/吨，环比下降11.00元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为605676.00手，环比增加1802.00手；J期货合约持仓量为59216.00手，环比增加786.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 50932.00手，环比增加6482.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为769.00手，环比增加333.00手 [2]。 - JM1 - 9月合约价差为15.50元/吨，环比增加2.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为24.00元/吨，环比增加8.50元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，环比减少2900.00张；焦炭仓单为430.00张，环比减少660.00张 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为755.00元/吨，环比下降5.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1575.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为117.50美元/湿吨，环比持平；唐山二级冶金焦价格为1580.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1230.00元/吨，环比持平；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1490.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1300.00元/吨，环比持平；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1390.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比持平；J主力合约基差为211.00元/吨，环比增加11.00元 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1090.00元/吨，环比持平；JM主力合约基差为250.50元/吨，环比持平 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为316.48万吨，环比增加10.97万吨；110家洗煤厂精煤库存为214.74万吨，环比增加11.48万吨 [2]。 - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.36%，环比增加0.28%；原煤产量为38930.60万吨，环比下降5127.60万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3783.00万吨，环比下降90.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为193.60万吨，环比下降7.00万吨 [2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为535.49万吨，环比下降9.98万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为276.68万吨，环比下降4.70万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为865.73万吨，环比下降19.20万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为103.25万吨，环比增加8.94万吨 [2]。 - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为798.75万吨，环比增加7.54万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为660.59万吨，环比下降3.21万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.70天，环比增加0.12天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.89天，环比下降0.12天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为889.34万吨，环比增加25.97万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为55.00万吨，环比下降21.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为0.00万吨，环比下降4161.47万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.87%，环比增加0.17% [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 15.00元/吨，环比下降22.00元；焦炭产量为4160.00万吨，环比增加30.60万吨 [2]。 3.4 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.67%，环比下降0.46%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为91.30%，环比下降0.44% [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比下降682.24万吨 [2]。 3.5 Industry News - 宁夏将加大化石能源供应能力，推动已核准的煤矿项目尽快开工，加快在建煤矿进度，力争煤炭产量突破1.05亿吨 [2]。 - 5月26日，河北、天津地区主流钢厂提出焦炭第二轮降价，湿熄焦炭下调50元/吨、干熄焦炭下调55元/吨，5月28日零点执行 [2]。 - 第三轮第四批中央生态环境保护督察全面启动，8个督察组将对山西、内蒙古、山东、陕西、宁夏5省（区）及3家中央企业开展督察，进驻时间约1个月 [2]。 - 今年1 - 4月30个代表城市中，20个城市120平方米以上住宅成交套数占比同比提升，南京、青岛、东莞、泉州、赣州提升幅度均超8% [2]。