8月14日，国内期市煤炭板块跌幅居前。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1212.5元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，焦煤主力最高触及1256.5元，下方探低1192.5元，跌幅达6.56%附近。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 申银万国期货表示，短期来看，焦煤自身基本面矛盾有限，并且当下宏观政策较为积极，盘面仍有支 撑，但同期低位的基差与近远月价差亦将制约盘面上行高度，因此当前盘面多空博弈加剧，建议投资者 谨慎操作。 宁证期货分析称，当前市场观望情绪渐浓，下游焦企在前期补库后采购节奏放缓，部分矿点高价资源成 交受阻，价格小幅回落，吕梁离石低硫主焦下调50元/吨至1430元/吨。需求端，焦炭第六轮提涨预计今 日全面落地，叠加铁水产量高位震荡，原料需求仍有支撑。综合来看，短期煤价回调空间有限，后续需 关注煤矿生产情况及下游焦钢企业减产安排。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，大商所调整焦煤期货JM2601合约交易限额和手续费标准，市场情绪预计受 限仓影响。基本面，矿端库存总体保持下降，精煤库存从上游矿山及洗煤厂向下游用煤企业转移，进口 累计增 ...

8月7日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1226.5元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，焦煤主力最高触及1242.5元，下方探低1185.0元，涨幅达2.16%。 目前来看，焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 冠通期货分析称，焦煤供给端，蒙煤日通关数量维持高位运行，近期于15万吨上下震荡，近日反内卷情 绪再度升温，国内煤矿超产问题检查在推进中，预计后续煤矿端将有减产数量，关注后续煤矿检查后是 否有明显缩量。库存端，焦煤库存向下传导，港口库存及矿山库存去化，本期煤矿库存大幅去化，钢厂 及独立焦企焦煤库存增加，独立焦企吨焦利润缩减，生产积极性提高，焦煤下游拿货情绪积极。焦炭五 轮提涨落地，后续下游对提涨将有抵触情绪，提涨速度将减缓，需求端，下游钢厂利润攀升，钢厂开工 负荷维持高位，但铁水产量本期下滑，警惕后续产量继续下滑影响对上游的需求，矿山检查及检查将持 续推进，支撑盘面，但下游对提涨持抵触情绪，盘面预计高位震荡为主。 中财期货表示，焦煤价格回归供需，煤矿控产影响明显，震荡微偏强看待。 中金财富期货指出，矿山产能核查持续 ...

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China has shown significant upward movement, particularly in coking coal, with the main contract opening at 1633.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1668.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.51% [1] - Current market sentiment indicates a potential shift as institutions suggest that the coking coal market may enter a price reduction cycle in August, with recommendations for hedging and profit-taking on existing positions [1] - The overall supply and demand for coking coal remains relatively balanced, with production and inventory levels stable, although market sentiment is expected to cool down [1] Group 2 - Recent significant declines in coking coal and coke futures have not been mirrored in the spot market, which continues to show upward trends, indicating a lag in the spot market compared to futures [2] - The tight supply in the spot market driven by supply-demand dynamics suggests that there is still potential for price increases, and a phase of downward movement in futures may be coming to an end [2] - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of consolidation, awaiting further developments in the supply-demand relationship following potential price increases in the spot market [2]