消息面上，9月15日，国内双焦期货市场强势上行，焦炭主力、焦煤主力盘中均涨超5%。据Mysteel，9 月15日山西省吕梁中阳一座煤矿于9月14日停产，复产时间暂不确定。该煤矿核定产能120万吨。 浙商证券指出，9月淡季预期压制煤价，现货逐渐接近长协，当前煤价有望触底反弹，把握左侧布局机 会。随着煤价与长协煤不断靠近(低卡倒挂)，下游采购积极性有望提升。展望四季度，供需有望逐步平 衡，煤价稳步上行，维持行业 "看好"评级。布局弹性动力煤公司和困境反转的焦煤焦炭公司。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，兖矿能源(01171)涨5.81%，报9.83港元；中国秦 发(00866)涨3.79%，报3.01港元；中国神华(01088)涨2.42%，报38.02港元；中煤能源(01898)涨1.06%， 报9.57港元。 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) up 5.81% at HKD 9.83, China Qinfeng (00866) up 3.79% at HKD 3.01, China Shenhua (601088) up 2.42% at HKD 38.02, and China Coal Energy (601898) up 1.06% at HKD 9.57 [1] - On September 15, the domestic coking coal futures market experienced a strong upward trend, with both coking coal and coke futures rising over 5% [1] - A coal mine in Luliang, Shanxi Province, was reported to have suspended operations on September 14, with an uncertain timeline for resumption and a certified production capacity of 1.2 million tons [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) noted that the seasonal expectations in September are suppressing coal prices, with spot prices gradually approaching long-term contracts, indicating a potential bottoming out and rebound in coal prices [1] - As coal prices align more closely with long-term contracts (with low calorific value discounts), downstream purchasing enthusiasm is expected to increase [1] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, supply and demand are anticipated to gradually balance, leading to a steady rise in coal prices, maintaining a "positive" outlook for the industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal demand is expected to rebound, with a potential for price stabilization as summer approaches and power plants increase their coal inventory [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic positioning in leading companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks [7][8]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices is supported by a decrease in coal imports and a gradual release of coal storage demand as temperatures rise [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,745.915 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,706.950 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.786 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.28% but a year-on-year increase of 4.97% [8]. - The price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 619 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.44% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons as of May 16, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.93% and a year-on-year increase of 48.15% [7][8]. 4. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75%, 60%, and 57% respectively for 2023 [13]. - The report emphasizes the operational stability and growth potential of integrated coal and power companies, particularly those with ongoing projects and acquisitions [13][14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong earnings resilience and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated coal-power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [7][8]. - It also suggests buying coking coal stocks due to expected improvements in downstream demand driven by fiscal policies and infrastructure investments [7][8].