煤炭红利：不确定性中确定性——煤炭行业七问七答 20250915 摘要 煤炭行业经历三个阶段：高速增长期估值高企，周期股阶段受 GDP 和产 能影响价格波动，及转型公用事业股，受益于投资回报率下降和高股息。 煤炭价格中枢抬升源于开采方式精细化、安全要求提高、机械化智能化 及资源开采深度增加，新项目审批难和投资额上升也推高成本。 煤炭板块估值提升因供给弹性收缩，新增产能不足，产能利用率提高受 限，长协制度稳定供应，增强业绩可预测性，提升估值。 原煤产量增量主要来自核增产能，但提高产能利用率压缩生产时间，增 加安全风险，在反内卷背景下，此方式不可持续。 煤炭公司长协机制（如神华、中煤）稳定业绩，ROE 可预测性增强，加 之国债收益率下滑，煤炭股息溢价凸显，使其受益于红利风格。 2025 年上半年煤炭板块表现较弱，受电价下调、暖冬及山西复产影响， 供过于求，市场风格偏好科技、黄金，红利整体回落。 四季度超产核查、库存低位及长协履约将推动煤价上涨，长期供需平衡 表显示未来盈余减少，预计价格震荡上涨动力较强，关注焦煤修复机会。 Q&A 煤炭行业的投资范式经历了哪些变化？ 从 2002 年至今，煤炭行业经历了三种主要的投 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the dynamics of thermal coal and coking coal markets, and their investment potential through 2025 and beyond [1][4][8]. Key Points and Arguments Demand and Supply Dynamics - In Q1, thermal power generation decreased by nearly 5% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline to about 3% from January to May, primarily due to weak overall electricity demand [1][2]. - GDP growth is approximately 5%, but total electricity consumption only grew by 2.5% in Q1, improving to around 3% from January to May, with industrial and residential electricity growth below expectations [1][2]. - Domestic coal demand shows resilience, but the availability of extractable resources is declining, leading to limited future import increases and rising costs, suggesting a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1][4][8]. Price Trends - Coking coal prices have significantly decreased this year, more so than thermal coal, with profitability for coking coal being worse than that of thermal coal, approaching levels seen in 2014 [5][7]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal was about 680 RMB, down 20% year-on-year [2]. Regional Supply Insights - Shanxi province's thermal coal supply increased by approximately 15% year-on-year from January to April, contributing to a relaxed supply-demand balance [6][7]. - The coking coal supply is primarily concentrated in Shanxi, where production recovery has been notable, further pressuring coking coal prices [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - Short to mid-term recommendations favor thermal coal due to expected demand increases during the summer peak and traditional high-demand months [9][10]. - Defensive stocks, particularly those with high contract ratios and stable returns on equity (ROE), such as China Shenhua and China Coal, are recommended for investment [14]. - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which aims to significantly increase production by 2030 [15]. Market Outlook - The coal price center is expected to stabilize or even rise in the medium to long term due to resilient demand and limited supply growth, despite short-term pressures [8][12]. - The overall investment attractiveness of coal companies remains low compared to other sectors, but the fundamental value and potential for recovery in the coal market suggest opportunities for investors [11][12]. Global Context - Internationally, countries like India, Indonesia, and Australia face supply constraints due to resource depletion and rising costs, which may limit their contributions to global coal supply [8]. - The experience of developed countries indicates that even with energy transitions, coal demand may remain resilient due to structural changes in electricity consumption [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - The coal industry is facing a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities, necessitating a careful analysis of individual companies and market conditions to identify viable investment strategies [14][15].