Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, highlighting strong price recovery and supply constraints as key factors for investment opportunities [3][4][15]. Core Views - Coal prices have accelerated unexpectedly, with supply constraints continuing to support price increases. The report anticipates that coal prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year due to seasonal demand and supply-side restrictions [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot price elasticity stocks, recommending specific companies based on their performance and growth potential in the current market environment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 12, coal production from 442 mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 26.77 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a consistent decline in supply [1][9]. - The report notes that since July 2025, the monthly coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with further reductions expected due to safety inspections and production checks [1][9]. Price Trends - The report highlights that coal prices rebounded sharply post-National Day, contrary to expectations of a seasonal decline, primarily driven by supply-side constraints [2][10]. - The report forecasts that non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, will increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy [3][15]. 2. Stable growth stocks: Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Ltd. [3][15]. 3. Stocks with recovery potential: Shanxi Coal International [3][15]. 4. Industry leaders: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry [3][15]. 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [3][15]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [4][15]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC coal sector index rising 4.3% in the week ending October 17, outperforming the broader market indices [16][18].

煤炭周报 ➢ 成本及需求支撑较强，焦炭价格节前稳中偏强运行。本周原料煤价格上涨压 缩焦企利润，但同时钢厂补库需求增加，综合影响焦企整体供应下移，节前补库 需求仍存，叠加钢厂利润尚可，铁水产量继续增长，在成本和需求支撑偏强下， 焦炭开启首轮提涨。我们预计节前焦炭价格稳中偏强运行，节后关注需求恢复及 库存变动。 ➢ 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1）高现货比例弹性标的， 建议关注潞安环能。2）业绩稳健、成长型标的，建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。 3）产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4）行业龙头业绩稳健，建议关注中国 神华、中煤能源、陕西煤业。5）受益核电增长，强α稀缺天然铀标的，建议关注 中广核矿业。 ➢ 风险提示：1）下游需求不及预期；2）煤价大幅下跌；3）政策变化风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A ...

华源证券近日发布大能源行业2025年第34周周报（20250824）：国家能源局于近日发布 2025年7月全社会用电量数据，单月全社会用电量10226亿千瓦时，首次单月超过万亿千瓦 时，同比增长8.6%。分产业看，7月单月第一、二、三产业及城乡居民用电量分别占比 1.7%、58.0%、20.4%、19.9%，分别同比增长20.2%、4.7%、10.7%、18.0%。1-7月全社会累 计用电量同比增长4.5%，其中第一、二、三产业及城乡居民分别同比增长10.8%、2.8%、 7.8%、7.6%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 电力：7月用电增速8.6%，高温带动用电需求超预期 重点推荐：1）中长期维度持续关注四大水电与港股低估值绿电，详见过往周报；2）短 中期维度关注具备穿越周期的优质龙头，华润电力、龙源电力、川投能源；3）区域性标的 嘉泽新能、银星能源、黔源电力。 建议关注：新筑股份、远达环保。 煤炭："查超产"致7月原煤产量同比大幅转负，进口煤量仍显著下跌 煤炭"查超产"加速供给收缩，7月原煤产量同比近两年首次转负。据国家统计局数据， 2025年7月，全国原煤产量为38098.7万吨，同比-3.8%，年 ...