供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，据市场媒体近期报道，印尼部分煤企2026年RKAB煤炭产量配额 明显下滑，这反映了早前印尼政府拟削减该国煤炭产量的意愿，即将2026年产量减至6亿吨左右(2025实 际产量8.2亿吨)。若该幅度的产量削减最终落地，海运动力煤供给或明显收紧，对动力煤价格形成较好 支撑。考虑到国内产量也存在收缩预期，煤炭供给趋紧的风险升温，利好煤价上行。 焦煤结构性紧缺显现 年初以来国际炼焦煤市场供应进一步收紧，截至2月3日，澳洲峰景矿北方港到岸价较年初升35美元/吨 (或+15%)至265.4美元/吨，主因年初澳洲受热带气旋暴雨影响，部分煤矿产运销受限。此外，印度政府 近期正式将炼焦煤列为"关键战略矿产"，此举旨在强化其国内钢铁供应链安全，长远看或加剧全球优质 主焦煤的资源竞逐。 总体而言，在供应端收紧、全球钢铁需求平稳背景下，短期焦煤具备反弹空间，但同时考虑蒙古国继续 上调2026年出口量目标至9,000万吨，全年焦煤价格上限仍存在掣肘；中长期继续看好优质主焦煤的资 源价值，同时判断主、配焦煤价差可能持续走阔。 风险因素 中金主要观点如下： 印尼动力煤供给收缩预期强化 根据市场媒体近期报道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, highlighting strong price recovery and supply constraints as key factors for investment opportunities [3][4][15]. Core Views - Coal prices have accelerated unexpectedly, with supply constraints continuing to support price increases. The report anticipates that coal prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year due to seasonal demand and supply-side restrictions [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot price elasticity stocks, recommending specific companies based on their performance and growth potential in the current market environment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 12, coal production from 442 mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 26.77 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a consistent decline in supply [1][9]. - The report notes that since July 2025, the monthly coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with further reductions expected due to safety inspections and production checks [1][9]. Price Trends - The report highlights that coal prices rebounded sharply post-National Day, contrary to expectations of a seasonal decline, primarily driven by supply-side constraints [2][10]. - The report forecasts that non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, will increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy [3][15]. 2. Stable growth stocks: Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Ltd. [3][15]. 3. Stocks with recovery potential: Shanxi Coal International [3][15]. 4. Industry leaders: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry [3][15]. 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [3][15]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [4][15]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC coal sector index rising 4.3% in the week ending October 17, outperforming the broader market indices [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [2][9][10]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with projections indicating prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by year-end [1][6]. - Focus on high spot price elasticity stocks is recommended, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for coking coal prices driven by pre-holiday inventory replenishment and the upcoming peak demand season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Coal prices have shown fluctuations but are expected to stabilize as supply decreases and demand increases post-holiday [1][6]. - The report notes a significant reduction in coal production, with a monthly year-on-year decline exceeding 3% since July 2025 [1][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a reduction in coal supply due to stricter production checks, estimating a decrease of approximately 230 million tons from overproducing mines [1][6]. - Non-electric demand for coal is anticipated to rise quickly after the holiday, particularly benefiting the coal chemical sector [1][6]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Lu'an Huanneng for high spot price elasticity [9]. 2. Jin控煤业 and Huayang Co. for stable performance and growth potential [9]. 3. Shanmei International for recovery in production [9]. 4. Industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy for robust performance [9]. 5. CGN Mining for its unique position in the nuclear power sector [9]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port reached 703 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 4 RMB/ton [7][9]. - Coking coal prices have also risen, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port reported at 1750 RMB/ton, up 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [9][10].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption in July 2025, with total electricity usage surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, marking an 8.6% year-on-year growth [1][2][3] Electricity Sector - July 2025 saw a total electricity consumption of 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents accounting for 1.7%, 58.0%, 20.4%, and 19.9% of the total, respectively [1][2] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to high temperatures, with the national average temperature reaching a historical high since 1961, leading to increased demand across various sectors [2][3] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to July 2025 grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with the first, second, and third industries and urban-rural residents showing respective growth rates of 10.8%, 2.8%, 7.8%, and 7.6% [1][2] Coal Sector - In July 2025, raw coal production experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, marking the first negative growth in nearly two years, primarily due to the "overproduction check" policy implemented by the National Energy Administration [5][6] - Coal imports fell significantly, with July 2025 imports at 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 22.9% year-on-year, and a cumulative decline of 13.0% for the first seven months of the year [6][7] - The domestic coal price has been under pressure, leading to a self-induced contraction in supply, with expectations that the price may stabilize above 700 yuan per ton, which could mark a new equilibrium in the coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on long-term investments in hydropower and undervalued green energy stocks, as well as short to medium-term investments in resilient leading companies such as China Resources Power, Longyuan Power, and Chuanwei Energy [3][4][7] - Specific companies to watch include Xin Zhu Co., Ltd. and Yuanda Environmental Protection [4]