Core Viewpoint - The current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for a rebound due to supply-side policies and seasonal demand recovery [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is leading to a contraction in output, while the demand-side expectations for the "golden September and silver October" peak season are improving non-electric coal demand [1] - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - Despite the overall profit pressure expected in 2025, most coal companies maintain high dividend yields, indicating strong dividend intentions [1] - Six listed coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, with a total dividend scale of 24.13 billion, continuing the trend of seven companies' dividends in mid-2024 [1] - The willingness and frequency of dividends among coal enterprises have significantly increased, reflecting the dual attributes of the coal sector in terms of cycles and dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Timing - The coal sector is currently at a low holding position, and the fundamentals are at a turning point, indicating that it is an opportune time for investment [1]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) saw a net inflow of nearly 0.6 billion, supported by improved supply and demand expectations [1] - Xinjiang's coal industry has transitioned from manual to automated mining, achieving a production capacity exceeding 500 million tons, with consumption expanding into the chemical raw materials sector [1] - Canada's coal production increased by 41.6% month-on-month in March to 3.816 million tons, with a cumulative production of 10.198 million tons from January to March [1] Group 2 - In May, the coal supply and demand situation gradually improved, with industrial raw coal production reaching 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The average daily production of coal remained at a low of 13.01 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 18% year-on-year [2] - The demand side showed a turnaround, with industrial thermal power growth shifting from -2.3% in April to +1.2% in May, while chemical coal consumption maintained high prosperity with methanol production up by 19.9% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The coal inventory at northern ports decreased by 830,000 tons to 30.245 million tons, providing space for replenishment during the peak season [2] - As of June 13, port coal prices remained stable at 609 yuan per ton, indicating a trend of "supply contraction, demand improvement, and inventory reduction" [2] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, trading, and related equipment manufacturing [2]