当前时点如何看煤炭板块？20260107 摘要 煤炭产能置换政策收紧传言引发市场关注，若 2026 年严格执行，或影 响煤炭供应，但需验证政策实际落地情况。 内蒙古鄂尔多斯减产传言部分属实，源于 2020-2025 年治理政策，但 具体数据未完全确定，对外蒙煤矿特别许可证撤销影响有限。 焦煤期货价格上涨主要受情绪面推动，库存偏低及补库需求提供短期支 撑，但下游钢厂盈利状况或限制上涨空间。 螺纹钢毛利接近盈亏平衡，焦煤价格过高将压制钢厂利润，从而间接限 制焦煤价格上限，需关注供需变化。 光伏装机减少有望改善燃料需求，供给增量有限及进口平稳，供需改善 确定性较高，中枢价格有望平稳提升，应重视煤炭板块投资机会。 在需求预期不乐观情况下，煤价上有顶下有底，推荐具有成长性和价格 弹性的公司，如港股兖矿、力拓发展和 A 股电投能源，以及稳健红利的 中煤港股。 政策态度从保量向稳价转变，2025 年反内卷政策及超产核查文件表明 政策变化，2026 年需求有望改善，重视供需改善确定性高的配置机会。 Q&A 当前煤炭市场上有哪些主要传言？这些传言的真实性如何？ 未来供需情况将成为关键因素。如果今年（2026 年）确实实施了严格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the price of thermal coal has been rising, driven by supply constraints and increased demand due to seasonal factors, marking a potential turning point for the coal sector [1][2]. Thermal Coal Market - As of November 14, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 834 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase, while the Guangzhou port price has reached 880 CNY, surpassing the target of 750 CNY for coal-electricity profit sharing [1][2]. - The recent price increase is attributed to supply reductions from strict production checks post-National Day and a surge in demand due to cold weather in northern regions [1][2]. Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1860 CNY/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 CNY in July, with coking coal futures rising from 719 CNY to 1192 CNY, a cumulative increase of 65.79% [2][3]. - The price of coking coal is closely linked to thermal coal prices, with a significant price ratio of 2.4 times, indicating a predictable price movement based on thermal coal trends [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is characterized by dual logic: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Current prices for thermal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for rebound [4]. - The supply-side policies aimed at curbing overproduction and the seasonal demand for heating are expected to improve the coal supply-demand fundamentals [4]. - Several coal companies are maintaining high dividend payouts, with six listed coal companies announcing interim dividend plans [4]. Selected Coal Stocks - Key stocks benefiting from the cyclical logic include Jinko Coal Industry (601001.SH) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) for thermal coal, and Pingmei Shenma (601699.SH) and Huabei Mining (600985.SH) for metallurgical coal [5]. - Dividend-focused stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH) and Zhongmei Energy (601898.SH), while diversified and growth-oriented stocks include Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) and Xinji Energy (601918.SH) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for a rebound due to supply-side policies and seasonal demand recovery [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is leading to a contraction in output, while the demand-side expectations for the "golden September and silver October" peak season are improving non-electric coal demand [1] - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - Despite the overall profit pressure expected in 2025, most coal companies maintain high dividend yields, indicating strong dividend intentions [1] - Six listed coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, with a total dividend scale of 24.13 billion, continuing the trend of seven companies' dividends in mid-2024 [1] - The willingness and frequency of dividends among coal enterprises have significantly increased, reflecting the dual attributes of the coal sector in terms of cycles and dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Timing - The coal sector is currently at a low holding position, and the fundamentals are at a turning point, indicating that it is an opportune time for investment [1]

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) saw a net inflow of nearly 0.6 billion, supported by improved supply and demand expectations [1] - Xinjiang's coal industry has transitioned from manual to automated mining, achieving a production capacity exceeding 500 million tons, with consumption expanding into the chemical raw materials sector [1] - Canada's coal production increased by 41.6% month-on-month in March to 3.816 million tons, with a cumulative production of 10.198 million tons from January to March [1] Group 2 - In May, the coal supply and demand situation gradually improved, with industrial raw coal production reaching 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The average daily production of coal remained at a low of 13.01 million tons, while coal imports decreased by 18% year-on-year [2] - The demand side showed a turnaround, with industrial thermal power growth shifting from -2.3% in April to +1.2% in May, while chemical coal consumption maintained high prosperity with methanol production up by 19.9% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The coal inventory at northern ports decreased by 830,000 tons to 30.245 million tons, providing space for replenishment during the peak season [2] - As of June 13, port coal prices remained stable at 609 yuan per ton, indicating a trend of "supply contraction, demand improvement, and inventory reduction" [2] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, trading, and related equipment manufacturing [2]