Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal sector, indicating that the bottom of the cycle has been confirmed in Q2 2025, with expectations for an upward trend starting in H2 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize, with demand being the core driver. The report highlights that the recent production increase in Yulin is not expected to significantly impact overall production levels due to existing capacity constraints [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with a notable increase in electricity demand in November, showcasing the resilience of thermal coal demand [1][2]. - The report forecasts that the coal sector will enter a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026, driven by increased demand for thermal power [1][2]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 706 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton (2.5%) from the previous week [6][7]. - The price of Q5000 coal at Huanghua Port is 621 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton (3.3%) from the previous week [6][7]. - The report notes a decrease in coal inventories at major ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [19][28]. Demand and Supply Analysis - November electricity consumption has shown significant growth, indicating strong demand for thermal coal [1][2]. - The report suggests that the anticipated production increases may not lead to significant supply growth due to regulatory constraints on overproduction [1][2]. - The report highlights that domestic coal supply is stabilizing while imports are expected to decline, maintaining overall supply levels [1][2]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends continued attention on core companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [2].

11 月用电量继续加速增长，需求端预计 26 年开启上行周期 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.29 [table_Authors] 2025-12-29 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 煤价有底，需求是核心，11 月份全社会用电量同比增长 6.2%，再次展 现电煤需求韧性。12 月 24 日，国家能源局发布 11 月份全社会用电量 等数据。11 月份，全社会用电量 8356 亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.2%，1-11 月份，全社会用电量累计 94602 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.2%，从分产业 用电看，第一产业用电量 1374 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.3%；第二产业 用电量 60436 亿千瓦时，同比增长 3.7%；第 ...