焦煤、石油、天然气都具有能源属性，长周期视角下，焦煤与原油、天然气走势整体较为一致，三者共 同受全球能源周期、宏观流动性及大宗商品整体β驱动。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研究报告称，2月底以来，受地缘冲突等影响，油气大涨，情绪 外溢，煤炭同属能源，也受到一定影响。煤炭替代油气主要路径有化工替代及能源替代两条路线，主要 影响动力煤，但由于焦煤兼具能源及工业品属性，进而传导至焦煤，资金及情绪传导明显快于基本面变 化。 就国内市场而言，其中化工替代效应强于能源替代效应。油气大涨对于焦煤的影响传导链路较长，逻辑 也较为复杂。同时需要注意的是，我国煤炭供应以"我"为主，进口作为补充(我国煤炭对外依存度约 10%，其中焦煤对外依存度约20%，且焦煤主要来自蒙古、俄罗斯等国，供应较为稳定)，当前我国煤炭 产量仍有提升空间，且进口蒙古煤维持高位，焦煤供应较为平稳。简言之，能源替代是慢变量，同时从 油气涨价传导到焦煤路径较长且逻辑也较为复杂，盘面的大涨提前计价了部分煤炭替代油气的利好，后 续核心驱动在于地缘冲突进展及油气价格变化，关注煤炭实际需求增量。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 逻辑分析 一、地缘冲突扰动，煤炭替代 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the coking coal futures market has large fluctuations, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals, with capital and sentiment trading as the main factors, and the weight of its own fundamentals decreasing. The price of coking coal is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas and remain strong with large fluctuations before the conflict eases or ends. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely without a clear trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and conduct band trading [5]. - The price of coking coal spot has stabilized and rebounded, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has recovered. The coal mine production capacity utilization rate continues to rise, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, which will restrict the upward space of coking coal prices. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to remain stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the possibility of a price increase in the future [5][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Coking Coal Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures market is mainly affected by capital and sentiment, and its own fundamentals are secondary. The price is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas. The spot market sentiment has improved, and some coal prices have increased. The supply of coking coal in China is mainly domestic, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on supply is limited [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short - term, coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coal Substitution for Oil and Gas**: As the prices of international oil, gas, and downstream chemical products rise, the price of international coal also increases. There are two main substitution paths: chemical substitution (mainly replacing crude oil and supplemented by natural gas) and energy substitution (mainly replacing natural gas and supplemented by crude oil). The chemical substitution effect is stronger than the energy substitution effect in the domestic market [7]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: The spill - over of sentiment and capital leads to an overall increase in the valuation of the energy sector, which reacts faster than the fundamental transmission. The increase in oil prices and insurance premiums raises the international trade transportation cost and the cost of imported coal [12][13]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal has rebounded, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines continues to rise, the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, the demand for coke is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Coke**: The price of coke has remained stable, the production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to recover in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the inventory has decreased, and the profit shows a certain differentiation [17]. - **Production and Operation of Coal Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased, and the inventory has decreased [20]. - **Import of Mongolian Coal**: The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high - level shock, and the inventory pressure is relatively large [22]. - **Iron Water Production**: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the iron water production has declined, and it is expected to recover next week [31]. - **Price and Basis Data**: The report provides price trends and basis data of coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., as well as the spread data between different contracts [36][46][49]