Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal prices at ports have stabilized after a decline, supported by downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday and maintenance on the Daqin line [2][72] - The coal mining industry is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand post significant events, with port inventories decreasing and prices gradually stabilizing [72] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies due to their strong cash flow and high dividend yields, suggesting a focus on low-priced coal stocks [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port coal prices have stabilized, with prices in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increasing by 5.00, 6.00, and 11.00 CNY/ton respectively [13][14] - As of September 10, the capacity utilization rate in the Sanxi region increased by 1.63 percentage points, indicating a return to normal production levels [13][72] - The average daily shipment volume on the Daqin line decreased by 17,500 tons week-on-week, with maintenance scheduled to begin on October 7 for 20 days [13][72] - Coastal and inland power plants' daily coal consumption showed a mixed trend, with coastal consumption decreasing by 100,000 tons and inland consumption increasing by 94,000 tons [13][72] - As of September 10, coal inventories at coastal and inland power plants reached 121.695 million tons, up 4.844 million tons year-on-year [13][72] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for sample coal mines increased by 4.08 percentage points to 85.3% due to the resumption of production after significant events [5][41] - The average daily crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remained high, with an increase of 293 vehicles week-on-week [5][41] - The price of main coking coal at the port remained stable at 1,540 CNY/ton as of September 12 [5][42] 3. Coke - Most coking enterprises remain profitable, and the supply has increased following the lifting of production restrictions [6][51] - The average profit per ton of coke decreased to approximately 35 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton week-on-week [56] - The production rate of independent coking plants increased to 75.6%, indicating a recovery in production [58] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal has decreased due to limited production and low demand from chemical enterprises [68] - As of September 12, the price of small block anthracite was 880 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [68] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report emphasizes the investment potential in companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with recommendations for buying based on their strong earnings forecasts [8]

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...