证券研究报告 | 2026年1月12日 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 煤炭 · 煤炭 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：刘孟峦 010-88005312 liumengluan@guosen.com.cn S0980520040001 证券分析师：胡瑞阳 0755-81982908 huruiyang@guosen.com.cn S0980523060002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 n 2025年回顾：供应偏宽，政策兜底 回顾2025年行情，是政策与基本面的博弈，在全年需求表现平淡的情况下，政策发力调控供给、改善行业供需格局。2025年上半年国内原煤产量保持高位 （原煤产量同比+5.4%）、需求疲软（商品煤消费量累计仅同比+0.4%）、港口库存累积，秦皇岛港5500K煤价从年初的763元/吨一路下跌至6月中下旬的610元 /吨，3月中已跌破长协，与长协最高倒挂60元/吨左右。7-11月进入需求旺季，日耗增加，基本面缓慢修复，7月查超产政策出台，随后供应端明显收缩，市 场信心增加，叠加极端天气影响煤炭生产，煤价超预期上涨。此后，11月召开的保供会议是供应转折点，11月月度原煤 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that port coal prices have increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, with coal prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia rising by 16 CNY/ton and 15 CNY/ton respectively, driven by good shipment from coal mines and low inventory levels [1] - The demand side shows a slight increase in iron and steel production by 0.46 million tons, providing some support for the essential demand [1] - Overall, the supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, indicating a stable market environment [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining, washing, and coking to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - The constituent stocks cover major segments of the coal industry chain, exhibiting significant industry concentration and cyclical characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect C (008280) and Guotai CSI Coal ETF Connect A (008279) for investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's coal industry, the largest exporter of thermal coal globally, is facing significant pressure due to a substantial reduction in coal production and exports this year [1][2] - Coal exports from Indonesia fell by 19.1% from January to May, reaching the lowest level in three years, with total production down by 9.6% to 308 million tons [1] - The decline in coal exports to China and India was particularly pronounced, with decreases of 19.39% and 9.68% respectively [1] Export Dynamics - The drop in coal exports to China is attributed to the lower cost-effectiveness of Indonesian coal compared to domestic production and imports from Russia and Australia [1] - The Indonesian coal reference price (HBA) is higher than current market prices, further diminishing the international competitiveness of Indonesian coal [1][2] - A new export pricing policy based on HBA was implemented on March 1, 2023, replacing previous pricing indices [1] Domestic Market Shift - Due to shrinking export opportunities and rising costs, Indonesian coal companies are increasingly focusing on the domestic market [2] - The domestic coal consumption in Indonesia has also declined, with first-quarter consumption at 12 million tons, down from 16 million tons in the previous year [2] - The mining industry is expected to supply 31.2% of the domestic market to the rapidly expanding mineral smelting sector, while electricity remains the primary consumer of thermal coal at 58% [2] Industry Outlook - Despite the global shift towards clean energy, the Indonesian coal market is expected to remain stable for at least the next decade, with coal continuing to be a major energy source [3]