Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the thermal coal market prices continue to rise, with significant increases observed in various indices as of August 8, 2025. For instance, the Yulin 5800 kcal index reached 569.0 CNY/ton, up 24.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][12]. - The report notes that the coal market is operating steadily with a slight upward trend, driven by supply constraints due to production checks and adverse weather conditions affecting mining operations. Downstream demand remains robust, particularly from power plants, which are increasing their coal procurement [11][12]. - The report anticipates that the supply will continue to tighten due to overproduction policies, and with high temperatures persisting nationwide, the daily coal consumption by power plants is expected to remain elevated, making thermal coal prices more likely to rise than fall [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The thermal coal market is experiencing price increases, with key indices showing significant week-on-week gains. The focus is on the supply-side constraints and strong downstream demand [11][12]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The report indicates that the CSI 300 index rose by 1.23%, while the coal mining and washing index increased by 3.96%. Major coal companies like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua have shown notable stock performance [12][15]. 3. Important Announcements and News - Shaanxi Coal reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in coal production for July, totaling 14.11 million tons. Nationally, coal imports in July decreased by 22.9% year-on-year but increased by 7.8% month-on-month [15][17][18]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, with significant increases noted in various coal types, particularly thermal coal and coking coal, reflecting market trends and supply-demand dynamics [19][21][28]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report includes valuations for major coal companies, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected earnings, with China Shenhua leading with a market cap of 732.31 billion CNY and a projected net profit of 586.7 million CNY for 2024 [42].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 08 月 06 日 中国神华启动千亿级资产收购，煤炭市场稳中偏强运行 煤炭开采行业周报 周期/煤炭开采 【招商煤炭 谢笑妍团队】本周总结（7.28-8.1） ❑ 【主要观点】本周动力煤市场价格持续探涨：截至 8 月 1 日，榆林 5800 大卡 指数 545.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 34.0 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 5500 大卡指数 480.0 元 /吨，周环比上涨 24.0 元/吨；大同 5500 大卡指数 551.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 21.0 元/吨；本周焦煤市场价格加速上涨：截至 8 月 1 日，CCI 山西低硫指数 1501.0 元/吨，周环比持平；CCI 山西中硫指数 1260.0 元/吨，周环比持平； CCI 山西高硫指数 1234.0 元/吨，周环比持平；灵石肥煤指数 1250.0 元/吨， 周环比持平；电厂日耗较上周有所抬升：沿海六大电厂日耗 89.8 万吨，周环 比减少 0.6 万吨。本周煤炭市场稳中偏强运行，受降雨影响，部分露天煤矿 生产受限，叠加部分煤矿完成月度任务停产或减产，产区整体供应收紧。同 时，降雨导致部分受阻，港口调入量低位运行，库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices in the first half of 2025 due to changes in supply-demand dynamics, policy adjustments, and international market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, coal prices reached a five-year low, with thermal coal prices hitting new lows and coking coal and coke prices at an eight-year low due to an oversupply situation [2] - The price fluctuations in the first half of the year showed a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline, with prices touching a low in March and April before rebounding in May due to rising demand from thermal power generation [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand imbalance in the coal market has not changed significantly, with domestic production capacity being limited and high levels of imported coal maintaining a relatively loose supply [4] - The demand from the electricity sector is expected to increase seasonally during the summer, but the growth will be constrained by the rise of renewable energy sources, leading to overall weak demand in non-electric sectors [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be a rebound in coal prices during the summer peak demand period, the overall price center is likely to shift downward due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [5] - The coal market will continue to face pressures from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with potential challenges from domestic capacity releases and ongoing imports [5]

Summary of Shaanxi Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal price is significantly influenced by demand, with a slight improvement expected in the second half of the year, but it is unlikely to exceed the levels of the first quarter [2][5] - A reduction in imported coal is anticipated, with an estimated decrease of several million tons for the year, making macroeconomic demand changes a key factor [2][5] Company Performance and Strategy - Shaanxi Coal aims to maintain stable production, with an expected output of around 170 million tons, as production is nearing its ceiling [2][6] - The company is currently facing slow progress in the approval process for new mines, which is critical for future production growth [2][6] - The company has not received any notifications regarding anti-involution policies, indicating that self-regulation in the industry is challenging and may require administrative measures for effective management [2][7][8] - Shaanxi Coal has implemented a long-term contract strategy, ensuring that 60% of contracts are executed at a capped price of 520 RMB/ton, with excess amounts settled at market prices to secure sales and profit margins [2][9][10] Financial Performance - The average selling price of coal decreased in the second quarter, with April's average at approximately 390 RMB/ton, stabilizing around 380 RMB/ton in May and June [4] - The company does not plan to disclose a mid-year performance report as it does not meet mandatory requirements [12] - A mid-term dividend is likely due to the company's strong performance last year, with positive feedback from regulatory authorities [13] Cost and Taxation - The decline in average prices in the second quarter led to a reduction in resource taxes, while other costs remained stable, with an average cost of about 280 RMB/ton, returning to pre-pandemic levels [14] - The entry of the central environmental supervision team has not impacted production operations, focusing instead on oversight and reminders [15] Operational Insights - The current production capacity can be sustained for approximately 70 years, although new capacity will be needed to compensate for any depletion of existing mines [19] - The company has no sales pressure due to the scarcity and quality of its coal types, and it aims to increase sales prices through favorable policies [11] - The impact of recent freight adjustments is minimal as the final freight costs are borne by customers [22] Additional Notes - The company’s asset management business has been cleared, allowing a focus on core operations [3] - The second quarter saw the hot pot restaurant segment contribute less than 300 million RMB, slightly lower than the first quarter [21] - The one-ticket revenue system does not affect profit calculations, as freight is included in both revenue and costs, but is excluded in complete cost calculations [16][17]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "synchronous with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coal industry has improved, leading to a rebound in the secondary market performance [4] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative production of raw coal reached 1.985 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with May's production at 403 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5] - The demand side is supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment growing by 3.7% year-on-year, manufacturing investment up 8.5%, and infrastructure investment up 5.6% [4] - Coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a decline in the average prices of various coal types since the beginning of 2025 [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, raw coal supply showed a slight increase, while coal imports decreased significantly, with a cumulative import volume of 18.867 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year [5][7] - The demand for non-electricity sectors is stronger than that for electricity, with thermal power cumulative growth at -3.1% and coke cumulative growth at 3.3% [4][5] Price Trends - The average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal has decreased since the beginning of 2025, indicating a downward trend in coal prices [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the coking coal sector such as Huai Bei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal, while for thermal coal, companies like Shanxi Coal International, Jinko Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining sector is currently facing a prolonged downturn in prices, with market sentiment at a low point. However, there are signs of potential recovery as some production capacities are experiencing losses, indicating a gradual emergence of cost support. The industry is awaiting favorable policy changes to restore confidence [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The coal mining market is experiencing a narrow adjustment with slight supply tightening in major production areas. Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs [13] - Port inventories are continuously decreasing, but there is still a lack of upward momentum in prices due to limited demand from downstream buyers [14] - The shipping market has seen a slight increase in the number of vessels at northern ports, indicating some recovery in logistics [27] Key Companies - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Xinji Energy (601918.SH), all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [9] - China Shenhua is highlighted as a central enterprise with strong performance, while companies like Qinfa and New Hope Energy are noted for their potential turnaround [10] Price Movements - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the port is reported at 620 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. However, the market is characterized by a lack of strong demand from power plants, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [37] - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in various grades, indicating a bearish market sentiment [40][53] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the coal industry will maintain its critical role in China's energy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable, with a potential increase in industry concentration [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector's overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with a total net profit of 24.12 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year. Among 37 listed companies, 25 reported profits, with 23 experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit [3] - The report suggests that the weak demand in Q1, influenced by holidays and higher temperatures, led to increased supply and falling coal prices. However, due to long-term contract pricing, the performance of thermal coal companies remained relatively stable. A rebound in coal prices is expected around mid-May [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery and suggests that the current demand may represent the annual bottom, with a potential rebound in prices during the peak season [3] Industry Market Performance - As of April 29, the CITIC coal industry index fell by 3.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.89%. Year-to-date, the coal sector has dropped by 13.99%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 9.93 percentage points [10] - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.5, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Supply and Demand Situation - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while national coal production increased by 8.1% to 1.2 billion tons [4][40] - The total coal consumption in China for Q1 2025 was 1.27 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with the power sector consuming 740 million tons, down 3% [59] - The report indicates that coal prices have generally declined in Q1, with thermal coal prices at 767.6 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies during market dips, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [3]