动力煤新长协维持不变，稳价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《动力煤价上破 800 元，炼焦煤联动 走强—行业周报》-2025.11.9 《动力煤价格如期进入上穿过程，炼 焦煤联动修复—行业周报》-2025.11.2 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：动力煤新长协维持不变，稳价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格上涨，截至 11 月 21 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 834 元/吨，环比持平，广州港价格指标已达到 890 元，已经完成我们提示的煤电盈利 均分的 750 元价格目标，此时正在经历我们所说的上穿过程，且也正处于我们所预 计的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 区间。近两周动力煤价格持续上涨，主要受到 供给收缩和需求逆势跳涨的双重影响，其中供给收缩是国庆 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，本周港口煤价暂稳，产地煤价继续上涨。基本面来看， 即使进入旺季，强监管下产地供应大幅提升可能性较低，供给端仍受限；需求端电厂日耗持续提升，伴 随后续进一步降温以及工业生产进入年底冲刺阶段，用电用煤旺季需求将逐步兑现；本周港口库存受封 航影响有所累积，但伴随天气好转库存将逐步下降，同时在铁路运力限制下，港口可流通货源仍偏紧， 叠加发运成本支撑较强，待需求充分释放后，煤价涨价动能持续，年底瞬间高点或冲高至1000元/吨。 核心观点如下： 淡季预期加强，焦炭价格弱稳运行。本周焦炭价格落实四轮提涨后持稳运行。供给端，原料煤价格下移 导致焦企生产积极性提升，但同时检修增多，供应整体较为平稳；需求端，铁水产量周环比微降、仍维 持相对高位，但因淡季钢材价格承压下行，钢厂利润不佳、检修增多，压力或逐步向上游传导，叠加成 本支撑亦有所减弱，短期焦炭价格或弱稳运行。 焦炭四轮提涨落地。据Wind数据，截至11月21日，唐山二级冶金焦市场价报收于1530元/吨，周环比上 涨50元/吨；临汾二级冶金焦报收于1365元/吨，周环比上涨50元/吨。港口方面，11月21日天津港一级冶 金焦价格为 ...

10 月煤炭行业数据解读 20251116 摘要 近期煤价调整旨在修复坑口与港口倒挂现象，并非全面下跌，而是部分 煤矿生产经营节奏变化，前期上涨后的消化过程，整体趋势未变。 海外动力煤价格上涨，但 10 月进口量未明显上升，因 9 月订货时无明 显倒挂且正与海外企业商谈长协，短期内大量进口概率不大。 港口及中间环节低库存延续，沿海电厂库存偏低，若天气显著变冷日耗 上升，沿海电厂边际压力可能增加，需关注其采购回升情况。 10 月原煤产量同比和环比均明显下降，四季度难以在去年高基础上实现 增长，多数矿井年底希望平稳收官，不会冒险超产。 10 月火电需求同比大幅增长 7%，预计全年火电消费可维持零或小幅正 增长，水电淡季后火电支柱作用将更明显。 煤炭供需矛盾未缓解，供应端持续收缩，需求端逐渐恢复旺季态势，短 期价格调整是上涨节奏放缓，需求边际回升与供应减量状态未变。 预计 2025 年四季度煤炭价格将表现强劲，市场需求旺盛，价格有望在 需求回升后进一步上涨，年底供应收缩因素较多，短期内煤价上涨概率 较大。 Q&A 国内动力煤库存情况如何？ 本周秦皇岛港库存进一步下行，北方九港库存略有恢复但同比仍下降超 10%。 整 ...

寒潮来袭提振需求，煤价上涨动力仍强 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 15 日 2025-11-13 2025-11-08 望震荡上行》2025-11-01 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 山西焦煤 | 7.21 | 1.19 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 6.1 | 13.1 | 20.6 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 买入 | | | | 潞安环能 ...

煤炭周报 预期扰动不改供弱需强格局，涨价动能持续 2025 年 11 月 15 日 ➢ 旺季需求逐步兑现，预期扰动不改供弱需强格局，涨价动能持续。本周港口 煤价继续上涨，后半周企稳。近期市场增产降价消息扰动供给收缩预期，但一方 面，据国家统计局数据，10 月全国原煤日均产量环比减少 60 万吨(-4.3%)至 1312 万吨，据国家应急管理部消息，"截至 11 月 10 日中央安全生产考核巡查组已进 驻山西、新疆等十省份，是 2025 年 4 月中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《安 全生产考核巡查办法》以来，首次组织开展的年度安全生产考核巡查，12 月份各 中央安全生产考核巡查组还将对 40 个国务院安委会成员单位开展现场考核巡 查，针对在地方发现的问题不足，溯源到相关成员单位，从顶层设计推动解决问 题"，因此即使进入旺季，强监管下产地供应大幅提升可能性较低；另一方面， 10 月全社会发电量及火电发电同比增速超预期，分别达到+7.9%/+7.3%，当前 电厂日耗也已进入上行阶段，后续伴随气温进一步降低，北方全面进入供暖季， 工业生产也进入年底冲刺阶段，冬季用电用煤旺季需求将逐步兑现。此外，当前 港口库存同比低 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Bai Jing [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the current supply recovery is slow due to factors such as underground issues and environmental protection, while downstream demand remains stable. With the successful third round of coke price increases and expectations of a fourth round, coking coal prices are strongly supported in the short - term, with an expected fluctuation range of 1200 - 1320 yuan/ton [7]. - For coke, both supply and demand have weakened recently. Although there is short - term support from coal supply constraints and cost factors, and the third round of price increases has been implemented with expectations of a fourth round, the narrowing profit of downstream steel mills may lead to price negotiations. Therefore, coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Coking Coal Price - As of October 23, the warehouse receipt price of Meng 5 raw coal was 1322 yuan/ton (-15), and that of Shanxi single coal was 1338 yuan/ton (+70). The warehouse receipt price of Canadian Lukin was 1302 yuan/ton (+98). The price of the coking coal main contract fluctuated narrowly, down 1.24% from the previous trading week, and the JM1 - 5 spread was -46.5 yuan/ton (+21.5) [5]. Fundamentals - Supply: In Shanxi, coal mines further reduced production this week, with a significant decline in production in the Lvliang area. Some state - owned large mines in the Liulin area also controlled production independently. The coking coal production of a large open - pit mine in Jiaokou stopped due to the expiration of the mining license. The开工 rate of 523 coking coal mines was 83.76%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points, and the daily average clean coal output was 73.83 tons, a decrease of 2.01 tons [6]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the profit of the steel products end was in a larger loss. The short - term trend may remain weak. After the successful implementation of the coke price increase, the raw material market sentiment was optimistic, and most mines had sufficient pre - sales orders [6]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of the 523 - caliber steel union was 189.54 tons, a decrease of 15.87 tons. The price of imported Mongolian coal decreased slightly, with the price of Meng 5 raw coal dropping to about 1150 - 1170 yuan/ton [6]. Part 2: Coke Price - As of November 7, the CCI Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was reported at 1570 yuan/ton (-), the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt was 1715 yuan/ton (+11), and the port dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt was 1815 yuan/ton (+55). The price of the coke main contract fluctuated, down 1.15% from the previous trading week, and the J1 - 5 spread was -129.5 yuan/ton (+10) [44]. Fundamentals - Supply: Recently, affected by factors such as losses, environmental protection, maintenance, and tight coal resources, coke production has continued to shrink. After the third - round price increase was implemented, coke enterprises became more active in shipping. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 72.31%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points, and the daily average output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.59 tons, a decrease of 1 ton. The daily average output of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.09 tons, a decrease of 0.12 tons [45]. - Demand: The molten iron output continued to decline this period, and the daily coke consumption decreased. The daily average molten iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons [45]. - Inventory: The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 tons, a decrease of 6.23 tons (1%). The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 58.3 tons, a decrease of 1.57 tons (2.6%). The coke inventory at ports was 202.11 tons, a decrease of 8.99 tons [45].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The industry fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, with coal prices rebounding month-on-month. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, leading to gradual performance improvement [7][8] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, with revenue at 7.031 billion yuan, down 21.83%, and net profit at 206 million yuan, down 63.96% [4][7] - The company is a leading producer of injection coal in China and has successfully acquired coal exploration rights, which is expected to expand its mining scale in the long term [8] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a revenue of 29.487 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.032 billion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year [6][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 35.5% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 6.9% [6][11] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.68 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.8 [6][11] Market and Operational Insights - The company’s coal sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 23.0% [7] - The average selling price of coal was 526.8 yuan per ton, down 15.6% year-on-year, but showed a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [7] - The company’s coal production and sales volumes have decreased, reflecting the impact of safety regulations and production constraints [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the resilience of coal demand during the peak season, driven by the La Niña phenomenon and supply constraints, leading to unexpected increases in coal prices [1] - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port reached 780 RMB/ton, reflecting a 22 RMB/ton increase from the previous week [1] - The NOAA predicts that the La Niña phenomenon may persist from December 2025 to February 2026, increasing the likelihood of colder winters in central and eastern China, which is expected to boost coal consumption [1] Group 2 - The coal supply is contracting significantly due to government interventions aimed at reducing overproduction, with national coal output in July and August at 3.8 billion tons and 3.9 billion tons, respectively, below the average monthly output of approximately 4 billion tons over the past 18 months [2] - In August, the industrial raw coal output was 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the output is expected to remain between 3.9 billion to 4 billion tons per month from September to December, with an annual output forecast of around 4.75 billion tons, down by 30 to 50 million tons year-on-year [2] - Coal imports have also declined, with shipments to China in the first two weeks of October 2025 at 9.85 million tons, a 14.4% decrease from September and a 43.7% drop compared to the same period last year [2] - The coal market is expected to remain strong due to sustained demand in winter and ongoing supply disruptions, with the coal ETF (515220) attracting significant inflows, totaling over 1 billion RMB in the last 10 days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector remains strong, with the coal ETF (515220) opening against the trend and stabilizing, closing up by 2.46% [1] Supply Side Summary - In September, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but a month-on-month increase of 5.1%, with an average daily output of 13.72 million tons. From January to September, the total output was 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [4] - The National Energy Administration has initiated a coal mine production inspection in eight key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable coal supply, which has led to a noticeable decline in coal production since July and August [4] - Extreme weather has disrupted production in key areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, with daily rainfall exceeding 100mm in some regions, affecting coal mining and transportation [4] Demand Side Summary - Since October, high temperatures in southern regions have led to a significant increase in coal demand, while northern areas have experienced rapid cooling, contributing to a seasonal spike in coal prices [6] - In September, due to an imbalance in domestic coal supply and demand, coal imports increased, but this trend weakened in October, with a 14.4% decrease in coal shipments to China compared to the same period in September [6] Price Summary - As of October 17, 2025, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 748 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan per ton, with an average price of 721 yuan per ton since Q4 2025, reflecting a 7.2% increase [8] Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing demand increases in winter and supply-side disruptions that are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, indicating a stable improvement in the coal sector's fundamentals. Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the coal ETF (515220) [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].