Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2025 年 10 月 08 日 需求阶段性放缓，但大秦线检修叠 加产地发运倒挂，预计煤价短期震 荡 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.9.27-2025.10.4） 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 9 月 30 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 535、607、699 元/吨，环比分别下跌 11、7、7 元/吨。供给 端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 183.54 万吨，环比上周增加 7.7 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the coal industry in the upcoming period [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the pre-holiday demand fulfillment, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise, particularly in the context of the upcoming winter heating season [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected rebound in demand for thermal coal, which is anticipated to drive prices higher, especially as the fourth quarter approaches [3]. - The report recommends undervalued stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Guoneng Energy, while also favoring stable high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of a special rectification action for coal mining dewatering in Shaanxi Province, aimed at improving management capabilities [8]. - It notes a decrease in production safety incidents in China, with a significant reduction in fatalities and major accidents [8]. - Russian coal production has seen a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2025 [8]. 2. Price Movements of Coal - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for thermal coal have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various regions [9][10]. - The report indicates that the price index for thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao area has risen, reflecting a general upward trend in coal prices [9]. - Coking coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others remain stable or decrease [12]. 3. International Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices have increased by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel as of September 26, 2025 [15]. - The report notes a decrease in the ratio of international oil prices to international coal prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15]. 4. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights a slight increase in coal inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Sea region, with total inventory reaching 22.82 million tons [18]. - Daily coal inflow and outflow at these ports have shown a decrease, indicating a tightening supply situation [18]. 5. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased by 11.09%, with average freight rates reported at 31.59 yuan per ton [23]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others have decreased [23]. 6. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal industry, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [28]. - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are projected to have stable earnings growth in the coming years [28].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the pre-holiday demand fulfillment, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rise during the peak season [3]. - It notes that the supply side remains stable due to the impact of capacity verification documents, while demand has seen a slight decline as downstream power plants stock up ahead of maintenance [3]. - The report emphasizes the expected rebound in demand during the winter heating season, which is likely to drive up thermal coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A special rectification action plan for coal mining dewatering has been initiated in Shaanxi Province to enhance supervision and management capabilities [9]. - The report mentions a significant coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [5]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, the prices for various grades of thermal coal have shown slight declines, while coking coal prices have varied, with some grades experiencing increases [3][10][13]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has slightly decreased, while power plant inventories have increased [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased slightly, while the outflow has also seen a reduction [21]. - The report notes an increase in coal inventories at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 22.82 million tons as of September 26, 2025 [21]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen, impacting the coal market dynamics, with the price reaching $70.13 per barrel as of September 26, 2025 [17]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased, with the average freight rate reported at 31.59 yuan per ton [28]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases in coal [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply situation and strong pre-holiday inventory demand, predicting that coal prices will continue to rise [1][3]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 10.27% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also saw a rise of 14.21% [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the expected price increases for thermal coal and coking coal, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report notes significant coal resource discoveries in Anhui province, which are crucial for strategic reserves [9]. - The report mentions the successful launch of a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, expected to be operational by 2027 [5]. Price Movements - As of September 19, thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 27, and 24 CNY/ton respectively [3][10]. - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported at 1510 CNY/ton for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi [3][13]. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased by 0.89% week-on-week, totaling 22.5 million tons [3][22]. - The report indicates that the overall supply from production areas remains tight due to capacity checks, affecting recovery rates [3][10]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs increased by 19.91% week-on-week, averaging 35.53 CNY/ton [3][31]. - International shipping rates showed mixed trends, with Indonesian coal prices slightly decreasing [3][31]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [3][36]. - Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating their market performance [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices have rebounded due to non-electric demand and winter stockpiling, with significant price increases observed in various coal indices as of September 19, 2025 [10][11]. - The report notes a slight recovery in the coking coal market, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream steel companies, although further price increases may be limited [10]. - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains strong, with expectations of continued price strength in the short term, despite potential constraints from rising prices affecting purchasing enthusiasm [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - As of September 19, 2025, the price indices for various coal types have shown significant weekly increases, with the Yulin 5800 index at 598.0 CNY/ton (+44.0 CNY), the Ordos 5500 index at 521.0 CNY/ton (+19.0 CNY), and the Datong 5500 index at 576.0 CNY/ton (+21.0 CNY) [10]. - The coking coal market has stabilized, with prices for major coking coal indices also showing increases, such as the Shanxi main coking coal at 1610 CNY/ton (+60 CNY) [10]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining index increased by 3.77% while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.44%, indicating a relative outperformance of coal stocks [11]. - Major coal companies have shown varied performance, with significant gains for companies like Yongtai Energy (+13.42%) and Luan Environmental Energy (+13.04%) [11]. 3. Key Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key coal companies, including China Shenhua (total market value: 755.35 billion CNY, PE: 12.9), Shaanxi Coal (total market value: 200.88 billion CNY, PE: 9.0), and others, indicating a range of valuations and expected profitability [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Group 1 - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remains stable at 671 RMB/ton, supported by high-cost supply and structural shortages in the market [2] - Coastal electricity demand is entering a seasonal decline, leading to reduced purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers, which is causing a stagnation in coal price movements [2][3] - Production in major coal-producing areas is being affected by heavy rainfall and strict policies on overproduction, resulting in a tightening of supply and downward pressure on pit coal prices [2] Group 2 - Despite a decline in pit coal prices, issues such as reduced railway freight discounts and weather-related transportation constraints continue to limit the increase in coal supply at ports [2] - The demand for electricity coal is expected to weaken further, with coastal power plants halting purchases due to a lack of substantial support from non-electric terminal demand [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with speculative demand shifting towards a wait-and-see approach, making it difficult for prices to find a solid support base [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the thermal coal market prices continue to rise, with significant increases observed in various indices as of August 8, 2025. For instance, the Yulin 5800 kcal index reached 569.0 CNY/ton, up 24.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][12]. - The report notes that the coal market is operating steadily with a slight upward trend, driven by supply constraints due to production checks and adverse weather conditions affecting mining operations. Downstream demand remains robust, particularly from power plants, which are increasing their coal procurement [11][12]. - The report anticipates that the supply will continue to tighten due to overproduction policies, and with high temperatures persisting nationwide, the daily coal consumption by power plants is expected to remain elevated, making thermal coal prices more likely to rise than fall [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The thermal coal market is experiencing price increases, with key indices showing significant week-on-week gains. The focus is on the supply-side constraints and strong downstream demand [11][12]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The report indicates that the CSI 300 index rose by 1.23%, while the coal mining and washing index increased by 3.96%. Major coal companies like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua have shown notable stock performance [12][15]. 3. Important Announcements and News - Shaanxi Coal reported a 1.1% year-on-year increase in coal production for July, totaling 14.11 million tons. Nationally, coal imports in July decreased by 22.9% year-on-year but increased by 7.8% month-on-month [15][17][18]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, with significant increases noted in various coal types, particularly thermal coal and coking coal, reflecting market trends and supply-demand dynamics [19][21][28]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report includes valuations for major coal companies, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected earnings, with China Shenhua leading with a market cap of 732.31 billion CNY and a projected net profit of 586.7 million CNY for 2024 [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with prices for thermal coal and coking coal showing increases as of August 1. For instance, the Yulin 5800 kcal index reached 545.0 CNY/ton, up by 34.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][12]. - The report highlights that the overall supply of coal is tightening due to production limitations caused by rainfall and some mines completing their monthly production tasks, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [11][12]. - Despite weak downstream demand, strong cost support is expected to keep prices stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The report anticipates that the price gap between long-term contracts and spot prices will narrow [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The thermal coal market is on a continuous rise, with significant price increases noted for various indices [11]. - The coking coal market has seen stable prices, with no week-on-week changes reported for several indices [11]. - The report suggests that the coal market is expected to maintain a steady and slightly upward price trend in the short term [11]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining sector's performance has been mixed, with the coal mining and washing index declining by 4.48% while major coal companies experienced varying degrees of stock price changes [12][14]. - Notable declines were observed in companies like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanxi Coking Coal, with drops of 9.67% and 9.01% respectively [12]. 3. Important Announcements and News - China Shenhua is planning a significant acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, which includes coal, coal power, and coal chemical assets, with the stock expected to be suspended for up to 10 trading days [2][15]. - Gansu Energy has received approval to resume production at its Wangjiashan coal mine, which had been previously halted due to safety concerns [17]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - As of August 1, the daily coal consumption of the six major coastal power plants was reported at 898,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week, while total inventory increased to 13.963 million tons [3][11]. - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices at ports and production sites, indicating a general upward trend in pricing [3][19]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key coal companies, highlighting metrics such as total market capitalization, net profit, and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [41].