煤炭 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《印尼进口煤价中枢有望提高，稳煤 价逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《煤价回归合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《2025Q4 煤价环比改善，重视周期弹 性—行业点评报告》-2026.1.27 三月煤矿复产增多，中东局势有望持续催化煤价 ——行业周报 风险提示：经济增速下行风险，进口煤大增风险，可再生能源加速替代风险 行 业 研 究 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：三月煤矿复产增多，中东局势有望持续催化煤价 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 2 月 27 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 745 元/吨，环比上涨 18 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The price of thermal coal before the Spring Festival is expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias. The market shows characteristics of weak supply and demand, with limited upward price space [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The current prices of thermal coal from different origins and ports are presented, along with their month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 567 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 29 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Long - term Agreement Prices in February**: The long - term agreement prices for port Q5500, Shanxi Q5500, Shaanxi Q5500, and Mengxi Q5500 in February are 680 yuan/ton, 517 yuan/ton, 461 yuan/ton, and 431 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Port Market**: On February 6, the port market continued to rise slightly. Due to the suspension of production and sales of private coal mines in upstream production areas, the reduction of market coal resources arriving at ports, and the decline in port inventories, combined with the impact of import market supply issues, the price of domestic coal continued to rise slightly. However, as downstream industrial enterprises enter the holiday, the demand side weakens, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [1][2]. - **Indonesia's Coal Policy**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has not officially approved the 2026 work plan and budget for coal producers. The government is considering significantly reducing the annual coal production, and the final production quota is uncertain. The reduction measures will be implemented proportionally and differentially for different miners [1][2]. - **Impact on Indonesian Coal Mines**: The Indonesian Coal Mining Association warns that the government's significant reduction in production quotas may lead to the shutdown of some coal mines. Individual mining companies may cut production by 40% - 70%. Indonesia plans to reduce annual coal production to about 600 million tons and impose an export surcharge, which will further weaken the industry's profitability [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is 1 [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending several companies based on their performance and market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to tightening supply and ongoing replenishment demand, despite current weak market conditions [11]. - In 2025, domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of 7.28 million tons (+1.2%) year-on-year, while total imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [11]. - The report suggests that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, as supply constraints and regulatory normalization take effect [11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [11][16]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Recommended": - Jinko Coal Industry: EPS of 1.68 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Shanxi Coal International: EPS of 1.14 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: EPS of 0.82 RMB, PE of 16 for 2024 [2] - Huayang Co.: EPS of 0.62 RMB, PE of 15 for 2024 [2] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.44 RMB, PE of 10 for 2024 [2] - China Shenhua: EPS of 2.95 RMB, PE of 14 for 2024 [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: EPS of 2.31 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - China Coal Energy: EPS of 1.46 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - CGN Mining: EPS of 0.04 HKD, PE of 96 for 2024 [2] - Xinji Energy: EPS of 0.92 RMB, PE of 8 for 2024 [2] - Huaibei Mining: EPS of 1.80 RMB, PE of 7 for 2024 [2] - Lanhua Sci-Tech: EPS of 0.49 RMB, PE of 13 for 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.4%, outperforming the broader market indices [18][21]. - The report notes that the focus on high dividend yields and stable earnings among leading companies enhances their defensive value amid uncertain international conditions [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in 2025, coal demand is expected to remain weak, but policy interventions will help regulate supply and improve the industry supply-demand balance [1] - In 2026, both supply and demand sides are anticipated to show potential, with the price of thermal coal expected to fluctuate between 650-850 RMB/ton, centered around 750 RMB/ton [2] - The report highlights that the domestic coal production peak is expected to be around 4.8 billion tons, with limited growth in production capacity due to policy focus on safety and stability [2][3] Group 2 - In 2025, domestic raw coal production remained high with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while coal consumption only saw a slight increase of 0.4%, leading to a significant drop in coal prices from 763 RMB/ton to 610 RMB/ton [1] - The report notes that the demand for thermal coal is expected to recover in 2026, with a positive growth outlook for thermal power generation, while non-electric demand from the chemical sector is likely to maintain growth [2] - For coking coal, despite limited growth in domestic resources, the price is expected to rise by approximately 100 RMB/ton in 2026 due to policy impacts and overall industry improvement [3]

Summary of Jin控煤业 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin控煤业 - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points Dividend Policy - Jin控煤业 expects to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40%-50% for 2026, with specific plans to be discussed in March or April [2][4] Pricing and Sales - The company has implemented a new pricing model in some regions, using a base price plus a floating price for monthly adjustments, while the Dazhong Tashan area continues with the original pricing mechanism [2][6] - Coal prices are expected to remain supported in 2026, projected between 670-850 RMB/ton, ensuring profitability for coal enterprises [5][15] - The average coal price for the company from January to November 2026 is approximately 430 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 60 RMB/ton year-on-year [5][18] Production Capacity and Quality - The Shalian coal mine has completed the necessary procedures for an 800 million ton capacity increase, but coal quality is currently poor due to geological issues, leading to lower sales prices [2][7] - Tashan area production remains stable with no significant changes [2][8] - The company has not yet determined specific production plans for 2026, with Tashan's long-term coal supply stable and primarily directed towards power plants [2][12] Long-term Contracts - The long-term coal supply contract for Shalian has decreased to 5.7 million tons due to low fulfillment rates from the previous year, where only 3.23 million tons were realized [2][12] Regulatory Environment - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanxi Province may introduce assessment indicators for listed companies to promote capital operations [2][11] - There is a lack of effective punitive measures for power plants regarding low fulfillment rates of coal contracts, despite various constraints on coal enterprises [2][13] Market Dynamics - The recovery of coal export tariffs is expected to suppress the increase in imported coal volumes, contributing to a stable market outlook [5][16] - The overall supply may be impacted by resource depletion and increased mining difficulties, with weather factors being significant variables [5][15] Cost Structure - The company's cost levels are expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, with costs around 330 RMB/ton in the first three quarters [5][19] Future Developments - The asset injection from the group has been delayed due to high performance commitment requirements from the exchange, with new leadership potentially affecting decision-making [2][9][10] Conclusion - Jin控煤业 is navigating a complex regulatory and market environment while maintaining a focus on production stability and profitability, with strategic discussions on dividends and long-term contracts forthcoming.

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the coal market in 2025 experienced a supply surplus, with policies playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market amidst weak demand [2][12][15] - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw coal production remained high, increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, while coal consumption only grew by 0.4%, leading to significant inventory accumulation at ports [14][15] - The report highlights that coal prices fluctuated significantly, starting at 763 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year and dropping to 610 CNY/ton by mid-June, before experiencing a rebound due to seasonal demand and supply tightening [2][12][15] Group 2 - For 2026, the report anticipates improvements in the coal supply-demand balance, with thermal coal prices expected to fluctuate between 650-850 CNY/ton, centering around 750 CNY/ton [2][3] - The supply side is expected to be influenced by policies focusing on safety production and coal price stability, with an estimated peak annual production of around 4.8 billion tons [2][3][30] - The demand side is projected to see a recovery in thermal power generation, while non-electric demand from sectors like chemicals is expected to maintain growth [2][3][30] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing coal companies with strong growth potential and stable operations, particularly those with high dividend yields in the current low-interest macro environment [2][3] - Specific companies highlighted for growth potential include Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment Corporation, Huayang Co., and Xinji Energy, while stable long-term investments include China Shenhua Energy and Shanxi Coal and Energy [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and market dynamics, particularly regarding production controls and safety inspections, which will significantly impact future coal supply [30][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply contraction at the end of the year, combined with a recovery in demand, is gradually confirming the price bottom range [1] - The report highlights that the thermal coal price continues to decline but at a reduced rate, with pessimistic sentiment gradually being released. After the New Year, low temperatures in the central and eastern regions are expected to boost heating demand, alongside supply contraction and policy support expectations, leading to a potential stabilization of coal prices [8][9] - Coking coal prices are stable with support, despite weak short-term demand. The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in prices, supported by low inventory levels and supply contraction, with winter storage replenishment expected to start after the New Year [21][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed a significant increase with an average daily trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment. The coal sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [4][6][36] - The coal sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 0.68%, closing at 2772.29 points, with notable fluctuations among individual coal companies [4][6] Thermal Coal - The report notes a continued decline in thermal coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal reported at 672 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton week-on-week. The supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production limits, while demand is showing marginal improvement [8][9][10] - The report indicates that the utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines has dropped to 86.4%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [8] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with premium coal types showing notable price increases. The report anticipates that despite weak short-term demand, the combination of low inventory levels and supply contraction will support prices [21][22] - The average price for main coking coal at the port is reported at 1740 yuan/ton, reflecting a recovery trend [23] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased, with an average of 67 vessels per day, indicating a rise in shipping activity. Shipping prices showed differentiated changes across routes [30][31] Industry News - Significant breakthroughs in coal exploration in Shandong province were reported, with over 10 billion tons of coal discovered. This is part of a broader initiative to enhance geological technology and promote high-quality development in the coal sector [33] - The report also highlights the upcoming national coal production and transportation coordination conference aimed at improving efficiency in coal supply chains [33]

Summary of the Conference Call for China Coal Energy Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal and coal chemical industry, focusing on China Coal Energy's performance and outlook for 2025 and 2026. Key Points Production and Sales Performance - In the first 11 months of 2025, the total coal production was 124 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons year-on-year, while sales were 234 million tons, down by 22.43 million tons year-on-year. However, self-produced coal sales increased by 900,000 tons [2][3] - Polyolefin production was 1.249 million tons, down by 139,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to major equipment maintenance. Sales were 1.233 million tons [3] - Urea production increased to 1.956 million tons, up by 272,000 tons year-on-year, with sales reaching 2.16 million tons, an increase of 336,000 tons [3] - Methanol production was 1.767 million tons, up by 211,000 tons year-on-year, with sales of 1.783 million tons, an increase of 237,000 tons [3] - The output value of coal mining equipment was 8.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 800 million yuan year-on-year [3] Cost and Pricing Outlook - The production cost for Q4 2025 is expected to rise compared to Q3 due to increased safety and maintenance costs, but a year-on-year decrease is anticipated due to cost reduction measures [2][9] - The average cost per ton is projected to stabilize around 290-300 yuan, reflecting a reasonable alignment with production realities [10] - Coal prices are expected to rise, with a cautious optimistic outlook for 2026. The anticipated price range for December is between 750-820 yuan [4][11] Future Production Plans - The production plan for 2026 is nearly finalized, with expectations to maintain stability compared to 2025. Main mines are operating normally [7][8] - New mine production may be delayed, but this will have a limited impact on total output for 2026 [8] - The long-term contract situation for 2026 remains stable, with a continuation of the pricing mechanism based on a base price plus a floating price [13] Market Dynamics and Strategic Focus - The company is focused on optimizing production and sales coordination, enhancing product structure, and managing costs effectively [3][19] - The recent fluctuations in coal prices are considered normal, with expectations of a return to fundamental market conditions [14] - The company emphasizes the importance of safety and environmental regulations, aiming to maintain a competitive edge while ensuring sustainable development [15][19] Challenges and Risks - The company acknowledges potential challenges from market volatility and regulatory pressures but remains committed to strategic investments in coal chemical projects to enhance product value and reduce dependency on external resources [18] Conclusion - Overall, China Coal Energy is positioned to navigate the current market dynamics with a focus on stability in production and sales, cost management, and strategic investments in coal chemical projects to ensure long-term growth and sustainability [16][19]