Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to rise after a week of consolidation, with the arrival of the heating season in November leading to increased procurement by power plants. The demand for heating will prevent the usual seasonal decline in consumption, and power plant inventories are gradually being depleted. A supply gap is anticipated, with coal prices potentially reaching 800 RMB/ton [6][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company among thermal coal firms, and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy among coking coal firms [6][25] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a decline of 0.43% as of October 31, 2025, mirroring the drop in the CSI 300 index. A total of 14 stocks rose while 23 fell, with Antai Group showing the highest increase of 8.36% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average daily coal production was 7.19 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [2][24] Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 685 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The price index for imported thermal coal was 866 RMB/ton, down 2.04% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton, while the price of Australian peak coal increased by 1.88% week-on-week [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 22.92 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative sales volume of coal this year was 210.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [2][24] - The report indicates that the chemical industry’s coal consumption has increased by 14.8% year-on-year, while power and chemical industries have seen a decrease in coal consumption of 2.5% and an increase of 14.8%, respectively [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal market is poised for a second wave of growth, with a focus on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. It highlights the importance of monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for potential investment opportunities [6][25]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the "severe cold wave" has led to increased heating demand, resulting in a non-seasonal increase in daily coal consumption, with power plant inventories gradually depleting and insufficient time for replenishment. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach 800 yuan/ton due to supply constraints and safety regulations, with a potential supply-demand gap leading to localized coal shortages in certain periods. The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests a gradual balance in supply and demand, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, maintaining a "positive" rating for the industry [1]. Group 1: Coal Market Data - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.34 million tons for the week of October 17-23, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 4.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among these, thermal coal sales increased by 4.9% week-on-week, while coking coal and anthracite sales rose by 2.8% and 0.2%, respectively [2]. - As of October 23, 2025, the average daily coal production from key monitored enterprises was 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The total coal inventory (including port stocks) was 23.04 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 684 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.59%. The import price index for electric coal was 884 yuan/ton, up 5.11% week-on-week [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3%. The price of coking coal futures settled at 1,251.5 yuan/ton, up 5.66% week-on-week [4]. Group 3: Chemical Coal Market - As of October 24, 2025, the price of anthracite coal in Yangquan was 880 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The methanol market price in East China was 2,268.18 yuan/ton, down 23.86 yuan/ton week-on-week [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) among others in the thermal coal sector [6][7].