三大港口煤炭库存月环比同比上升，六大发电集团日均耗煤量月环比上升。截至12月15日，秦皇岛港、 黄骅港、曹妃甸港三港煤炭库存合计1490.00万吨，环比上月上升200.80万吨，涨幅15.58%；同比上升 101.00万吨，涨幅7.27%。六大发电集团日均耗煤量共82.66万吨，环比上月上升3.05万吨，涨幅3.83%； 同比下降3.29万吨，降幅3.83%。 国内运费月环比下跌、国际海运费涨跌不一。截至12月15日，从秦皇岛到上海航线上4-5万DWT的 CBCFI报收23.80元/吨，较上月环比降幅为48.37%；从秦皇岛到宁波航线上1.5-2万DWT的CBCFI报收 38.90元/吨，较上月环比降幅为32.58%。澳洲纽卡斯尔-中国煤炭海运费（巴拿马型）报收16.20美元/ 吨，环比上月下降0.4美元/吨，降幅为2.41%；印尼塔巴尼奥-中国广州（50000MT/10%）的煤炭CDFI程 租报收9.40美元/吨，环比上月上升0.18美元/吨，涨幅为1.97%。 结论：国内动力煤价格环比上月下降，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港NEWC岸价格环比上升。11月陕晋蒙三省国 有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量陕环比下降，晋蒙环比上升。三 ...

Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices increased month-on-month, while international offshore prices for thermal coal from Australia, South Africa, and Europe decreased [2][4] - Coal inventory at three major ports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [3][5] - Daily coal consumption by the six major power generation groups declined month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting reduced demand [3][5] Inventory and Consumption - As of September 29, total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 12.188 million tons, down 2.137 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 17.32%, and down 2.368 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 18.84% [3] - Daily average coal consumption by the six major power generation groups was 839,800 tons, down 105,400 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 11.15%, and down 24,800 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 2.87% [3] Price Movements - As of September 30, the price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 701.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 9 RMB/ton month-on-month, a rise of 1.30% [2] - International thermal coal prices showed a downward trend: Newcastle port price was $103.30/ton, down $6.40/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 5.83%; South Africa's Richards Bay price was $82.20/ton, down $6.60/ton, a decrease of 7.43%; and European DES ARA price was $91.30/ton, down $8.00/ton, a decrease of 8.06% [2] Production Trends - In August, coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: Shaanxi produced 21.119 million tons, up 360,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 0.67%, and up 467,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.26%; Shanxi produced 46.328 million tons, down 707,400 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 13.25%, but up 986,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.17%; Inner Mongolia produced 18.214 million tons, down 33,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 0.18%, but up 378,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.12% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]