Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal is weak, and the short - term price will be in a weak adjustment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - In terms of origin prices, the price of Datong Southern Suburban Thermal Coal Q5500 is 599 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Ejin Horo Banner Electric Coal Q5500 in Ordos is 542 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and 36 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Yulin Bituminous Coal Powder Q6000 is 591 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 52 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - For port prices, the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 693 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 65 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 605 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 60 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 519 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 66 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - Regarding overseas prices, the price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 49 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and down 1 US dollar/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 74 US dollars/ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period and 7 US dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - In January's long - term agreement prices, the price of port Q5500 is 684 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous period and 9 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 540 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 483 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 453 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, the national raw coal output continued to increase month - on - month, reaching 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The daily average output in December was 1,410 tons, 13 tons less than that in November and 5.6 tons less than the same period last year. The cumulative national raw coal output in 2025 was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% [2] - In December 2025, the national coal and lignite imports were 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The over - expected performance of imported coal was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the end - of - year domestic supply tightening and the decline of domestic coal prices giving imported coal an advantage [2] - On January 8, 2026, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the government plans to approve about 600 million tons of coal production quota in 2026 (lower than the 2025 production target of 739.7 million tons). The expected coal production in Indonesia in 2025 was 790 million tons (lower than the 2024 coal output of 836 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern ports) is - 1 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased month-on-month, while the Newcastle port prices in Australia have increased slightly [2][4]. Price Summary - As of December 15, the Qinhuangdao power coal price for Shanxi mixed 5500 was 736.00 CNY/ton, down 91 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous month [2][4]. - The Inner Mongolia Wuhai Q5500 thermal coal price was 596.00 CNY/ton, down 72 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.78% [2][4]. - The Datong South Suburb Q5500 thermal coal price was 615.00 CNY/ton, down 95.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 13.38% [2][4]. - The Newcastle port NEWC thermal coal offshore price was 108.60 USD/ton, up 0.30 USD/ton, an increase of 0.28% [2][4]. Production Summary - In November, the coal production from key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: - Shaanxi produced 21.74 million tons, up 1.32 million tons year-on-year, but down 0.48 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 2.18% [2]. - Shanxi produced 51.04 million tons, down 2.38 million tons year-on-year, but up 1.62 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.28% [2]. - Inner Mongolia produced 19.64 million tons, up 0.14 million tons year-on-year and up 0.88 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 4.70% [2]. Inventory and Consumption Summary - The total coal inventory at the three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) was 14.90 million tons, up 2.01 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 15.58% [3]. - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 0.83 million tons, up 0.03 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.83%, but down 0.33 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 3.83% [3]. Freight Summary - Domestic freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends: - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was 23.80 CNY/ton, down 48.37% month-on-month [3]. - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Ningbo was 38.90 CNY/ton, down 32.58% month-on-month [3]. - The shipping rate from Newcastle, Australia to China was 16.20 USD/ton, down 0.40 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.41% [3]. - The shipping rate from Tabang, Indonesia to Guangzhou, China was 9.40 USD/ton, up 0.18 USD/ton, an increase of 1.97% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trends in China's coal industry, particularly focusing on the production statistics and future development forecasts [1] - In September 2025, China's raw coal production was reported at 410 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative raw coal production in China reached 3.57 billion tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2% [1] Group 2 - The article lists key listed companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088), Zhongmei Energy (601898), Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), and others [1] - The report referenced is the "China Coal Industry Panorama Research and Future Development Trend Assessment Report (2026 Edition)" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and customized services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) reported its coal production and sales figures for Q3 2025, indicating stable performance despite weather-related disruptions [1] Production and Sales Summary - The total raw coal production for Q3 2025 was 15.8 million tons, aligning with company forecasts [1] - The total commodity coal production was 12.3 million tons, remaining flat compared to the previous quarter [1] - The equity commodity coal production reached 9.3 million tons, with equity coal sales at 10.7 million tons, exceeding production due to sales recovery from previous delays [1] Pricing and Financials Summary - The average coal sales price for the quarter was AUD 140 per ton, with stable pricing for thermal coal and a 1% decrease in metallurgical coal prices [1] - The sales price reflects a lagged effect of coal price indices, exchange rates, and sales contract structures [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a cash balance of AUD 1.8 billion [1] Safety Performance Summary - The total recordable injury frequency rate decreased to 5.71, remaining below the weighted industry benchmark [1]

Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices increased month-on-month, while international offshore prices for thermal coal from Australia, South Africa, and Europe decreased [2][4] - Coal inventory at three major ports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [3][5] - Daily coal consumption by the six major power generation groups declined month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting reduced demand [3][5] Inventory and Consumption - As of September 29, total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 12.188 million tons, down 2.137 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 17.32%, and down 2.368 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 18.84% [3] - Daily average coal consumption by the six major power generation groups was 839,800 tons, down 105,400 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 11.15%, and down 24,800 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 2.87% [3] Price Movements - As of September 30, the price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 701.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 9 RMB/ton month-on-month, a rise of 1.30% [2] - International thermal coal prices showed a downward trend: Newcastle port price was $103.30/ton, down $6.40/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 5.83%; South Africa's Richards Bay price was $82.20/ton, down $6.60/ton, a decrease of 7.43%; and European DES ARA price was $91.30/ton, down $8.00/ton, a decrease of 8.06% [2] Production Trends - In August, coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: Shaanxi produced 21.119 million tons, up 360,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 0.67%, and up 467,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.26%; Shanxi produced 46.328 million tons, down 707,400 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 13.25%, but up 986,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.17%; Inner Mongolia produced 18.214 million tons, down 33,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 0.18%, but up 378,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.12% [2]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry and a specific coal company’s performance and market conditions. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Stability**: The average selling price of coal has stabilized around 380, with slight increases noted in June compared to May, which was also around 380 [1][2] 2. **Market Recovery**: There are indications of market recovery as the price has returned to approximately 390 or above, although real-time comprehensive data is not available [2] 3. **Import Coal Predictions**: It is anticipated that coal imports will decrease, with projections suggesting a reduction of several million tons for the year [3] 4. **Production Capacity**: The company is operating at full production capacity, indicating limited room for growth in output [4] 5. **Regulatory Environment**: There are ongoing discussions about expediting the approval process for new mining projects, which is currently complex and time-consuming [5] 6. **Industry Self-Regulation Challenges**: The coal industry faces challenges in self-regulation, necessitating administrative intervention due to the complexity and diversity of enterprises involved [6][7] 7. **Sales Strategy**: The company is focused on maintaining profit margins through strategic sales policies, despite the current market conditions [8] 8. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain or increase dividend payouts, reflecting confidence in financial performance despite price fluctuations [9] 9. **Cost Management**: The production cost is stable at around 290, with expectations that costs will remain manageable throughout the year [10] 10. **Long-term Resource Availability**: The company estimates that current resources can sustain production for approximately 70 years, assuming no significant depletion occurs [15][16] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Freight Costs**: The discussion includes the implications of freight costs on revenue and how they are accounted for in financial reporting [12][14] - **Coal Production Data**: Clarification on the production data and how certain companies are not included in the reported figures [16] - **Electricity Generation Contribution**: The coal company’s contribution to electricity generation is noted, with figures indicating a slight increase in revenue from this segment [17][18] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current market position, strategic outlook, and operational challenges within the coal industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]