Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a stable upward trend in prices due to a tightening supply outlook and high demand levels, particularly driven by cold weather conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventories, with port inventories down to 26.28 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.22% [8]. - The daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 6.876 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.14% and a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,903.919 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,862.614 billion yuan [2][5]. 2. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with a recent price of 690 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Coking coal prices have increased by 30 yuan per ton at the port, indicating a strong demand from steel production [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is stable but shows signs of marginal contraction as production halts are anticipated due to the upcoming holiday season [7][8]. - The report forecasts that coal imports may continue to decline, with a projected decrease of 11.57% in 2025 compared to 2024 [7]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75% to 88% of distributable profits [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cash flow and low valuations, recommending investments in firms like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8][13].

Market Overview - As of January 7, coking coal futures showed a strong upward trend, with the near-month contract rising by 51.5 (+4.75%) to 1135.0 and the main contract increasing by 68.0 (+6.2%) to 1164.0 [1] Supply - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines was 79.76%, down by 2.89% month-on-month, with raw coal production at 805.56 million tons per week, a decrease of 29.17 million tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stood at 222.15 million tons, up by 17.5 million tons week-on-week, while the production of premium coal was 410.26 million tons per week, down by 17.43 million tons week-on-week [2] Demand - As of December 31, the average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 62.7 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron output was 227.43 million tons, up by 0.85 million tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 78.94%, an increase of 0.62% [3] Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) increased by 59.7 million tons to 4104.3 million tons [4] - The inventory at 523 mines rose by 1.5 million tons to 528.8 million tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants increased by 1.6 million tons to 531.6 million tons [4] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in coking coal futures was noted, with the main contract hitting the limit up. However, the spot prices in Shanxi showed weak performance, and the trading environment remains cautious with high auction failure rates [5] - The supply side is seeing a slight recovery in daily coal production as mines resume operations, but sales remain sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation [5] - On the demand side, steel mills are experiencing reduced losses, and pig iron production is stable, although coking profits are declining, leading to a slight decrease in operational rates [5] Policy and Strategy - The main policy focus remains on ensuring coal supply for power plants, with reports indicating that 26 coal mines in Shaanxi may be removed from the supply guarantee list, reducing capacity by 19 million tons, pending verification [5] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach until policy confirmations are made, with an emphasis on arbitrage opportunities between coking coal and coke [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased month-on-month, while the Newcastle port prices in Australia have increased slightly [2][4]. Price Summary - As of December 15, the Qinhuangdao power coal price for Shanxi mixed 5500 was 736.00 CNY/ton, down 91 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11% compared to the previous month [2][4]. - The Inner Mongolia Wuhai Q5500 thermal coal price was 596.00 CNY/ton, down 72 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.78% [2][4]. - The Datong South Suburb Q5500 thermal coal price was 615.00 CNY/ton, down 95.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 13.38% [2][4]. - The Newcastle port NEWC thermal coal offshore price was 108.60 USD/ton, up 0.30 USD/ton, an increase of 0.28% [2][4]. Production Summary - In November, the coal production from key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: - Shaanxi produced 21.74 million tons, up 1.32 million tons year-on-year, but down 0.48 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 2.18% [2]. - Shanxi produced 51.04 million tons, down 2.38 million tons year-on-year, but up 1.62 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.28% [2]. - Inner Mongolia produced 19.64 million tons, up 0.14 million tons year-on-year and up 0.88 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 4.70% [2]. Inventory and Consumption Summary - The total coal inventory at the three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) was 14.90 million tons, up 2.01 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 15.58% [3]. - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 0.83 million tons, up 0.03 million tons month-on-month, an increase of 3.83%, but down 0.33 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 3.83% [3]. Freight Summary - Domestic freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends: - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was 23.80 CNY/ton, down 48.37% month-on-month [3]. - The CBCFI rate from Qinhuangdao to Ningbo was 38.90 CNY/ton, down 32.58% month-on-month [3]. - The shipping rate from Newcastle, Australia to China was 16.20 USD/ton, down 0.40 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.41% [3]. - The shipping rate from Tabang, Indonesia to Guangzhou, China was 9.40 USD/ton, up 0.18 USD/ton, an increase of 1.97% [3].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal and coke futures, driven by weak spot market conditions and a surge in import supply, has led to significant sell-offs in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 8, coking coal and coke futures continued their downward trend, with both coking coal contracts (2605 and 2601) and coke contract (2601) dropping over 6% [1]. - The main coking coal contract (2605) fell below the 1100 yuan mark, while the 01 contract faced pressure at the 1000 yuan support level [1]. - Since November, coking coal futures have seen a monthly decline of 17%, while coke futures have dropped by 11% [1]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to sluggish seasonal demand recovery, with November's higher temperatures leading to lower-than-expected daily coal consumption at power plants [3]. - As of December 4, the average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% [4]. - The total coal inventory at power plants reached 136.41 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year despite ongoing accumulation [4]. - The influx of imported coal has further alleviated supply pressures, contributing to the inability of spot prices to maintain high levels [3][5]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - High inventory levels at ports and production sites are key factors suppressing coal prices. As of December 5, inventory at the four northern ports reached 17.64 million tons, an increase of 1.09 million tons year-on-year [6]. - The total social inventory was 182.24 million tons as of December 4, with a week-on-week increase of 320,000 tons [6]. - The continuous accumulation of inventory, coupled with slow demand recovery, is directly causing the accelerated decline in coal prices [8]. Group 4: Future Demand Expectations - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding winter demand, with some analysts predicting that December temperatures will be close to or above normal, providing potential upward momentum for demand [9]. - The China Meteorological Administration indicates that most regions will experience temperatures near or above seasonal averages, with only specific areas expected to be colder [9]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Securities believe that the coal sector's cyclical bottom was confirmed in the second quarter of this year, with a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics expected [9]. Group 5: Long-term Contract Mechanism - The introduction of a new long-term coal contract mechanism for 2026 is expected to provide policy support for the market [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has outlined new requirements for long-term coal contracts, allowing for more market-oriented pricing adjustments [10]. - This adjustment is anticipated to enhance the industry's performance and improve valuation prospects, especially as coal consumption is expected to peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the coal market will maintain a relatively strong pattern due to demand support and sentiment transmission. In the long term, the supply remains in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of October 17, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 613.0 yuan/ton, up 46.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 555.0 yuan/ton, up 51.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 625.0 yuan/ton, up 50.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI Import 4700 index was 72.5 dollars/ton, up 2.8 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index was 56.3 dollars/ton, up 2.3 dollars/ton week - on - week [1][5] - **Port Inventory**: As of October 17, the total inventory of northern ports was 2183.0 million tons, a decrease of 142 million tons from last week [1] - **Power Plant Inventory**: As of October 17, the coal inventory of six coastal power plants was 1388.4 million tons, a decrease of 34.7 million tons from last week; the average available days were 17 days, the same as last week; the daily coal consumption was 83.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week [1] - **Freight Index**: As of October 17, the Ocean Coal Freight Index (OCFI) was 1046.24 points, up 143.23 points. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2069.00 points, up 23.00 points, a 1.12% increase [1] Supply - After the holiday, mines resumed production, but safety inspections became stricter, affecting the rapid release of production [8] Consumption - The terminal demand of downstream metallurgy and chemical industries continued to be released. The purchase prices of large groups increased, and the transportation demand of platform traders increased. There were queues of coal - hauling trucks at some mines, and the coal mine inventory decreased [2][10] Inventory - Due to good downstream demand, the coal mine inventory decreased [13]

Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices increased month-on-month, while international offshore prices for thermal coal from Australia, South Africa, and Europe decreased [2][4] - Coal inventory at three major ports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [3][5] - Daily coal consumption by the six major power generation groups declined month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting reduced demand [3][5] Inventory and Consumption - As of September 29, total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 12.188 million tons, down 2.137 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 17.32%, and down 2.368 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 18.84% [3] - Daily average coal consumption by the six major power generation groups was 839,800 tons, down 105,400 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 11.15%, and down 24,800 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 2.87% [3] Price Movements - As of September 30, the price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 701.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 9 RMB/ton month-on-month, a rise of 1.30% [2] - International thermal coal prices showed a downward trend: Newcastle port price was $103.30/ton, down $6.40/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 5.83%; South Africa's Richards Bay price was $82.20/ton, down $6.60/ton, a decrease of 7.43%; and European DES ARA price was $91.30/ton, down $8.00/ton, a decrease of 8.06% [2] Production Trends - In August, coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: Shaanxi produced 21.119 million tons, up 360,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 0.67%, and up 467,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.26%; Shanxi produced 46.328 million tons, down 707,400 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 13.25%, but up 986,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.17%; Inner Mongolia produced 18.214 million tons, down 33,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 0.18%, but up 378,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.12% [2]

Core Insights - The coal inventory in China is at a historically high level as of June 2025, with key coal enterprises holding 102 million tons, which is stable compared to the previous month and represents a year-on-year increase of 51.9% [1] - National thermal power plants have a coal stock of 21 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - Coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports stands at 27.65 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Inventory Trends - In late July, the coal inventory of key monitored coal enterprises decreased by 8.7% compared to the end of the previous month [1] - The coal stock at thermal power plants increased by 2.3% compared to the end of the previous month [1] - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 5.8% compared to the end of the previous month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report concludes that as of late June, coal production in major producing areas has declined, but overall supply remains relatively abundant. Power plant inventory depletion is slow, and with the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Port inventory is continuously decreasing. As temperatures rise nationwide, power plant daily consumption will continue to increase seasonally, and there will be necessary purchases later. The port FOB price is temporarily stable, and coal prices in the pithead area are expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On June 23, port market price - holding sentiment persisted, and trader quotes continued to rise. For example, the 5500 - kcal market quote was 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had their own price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In May 2025, China imported 2865.3 million tons of thermal coal (non - coking coal), a year - on - year decrease of 16.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of thermal coal was 14500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May 2025, China imported 738.7 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Pithead prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. Some coal mines have shut down, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have declined. As of June 22, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 66%, and in Yulin it was 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.7 million tons, but the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The domestic and imported markets showed different trends, with the domestic coal price basically stable and imported coal prices falling [5]. - **Demand**: Power plant loads were generally low, and inventories were at high levels. Power plants mainly relied on long - term contract coal. Some coastal power plants had nearly completed their August imported coal purchases. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair, providing stable support for coal prices in the pithead area [5]. - **Inventory**: Due to shipping losses, port inflows decreased. The daily average freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line dropped to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to around 30. Outflows were low, and port inventory continued to decrease. As of June 23, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was around 26.7 million tons, a reduction of 5 million tons from the high level but still relatively high. Coastal power plant daily consumption increased seasonally, but inventory depletion was slow, and inland power plant inventories remained high [5].