以下为研究报告摘要： 国内动力煤价格环比上月上涨，国际上澳洲、南非和欧洲三港动力煤离岸价格环比上月 均下跌。截至9月30日，秦皇岛动力煤山西优混5500平仓价格701.00元/吨，环比上月涨9元/ 吨，涨幅为1.30%。澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港NEWC动力煤离岸价格103.3美元/吨，环比上月下 降6.40美元/吨，跌幅为5.83%；南非理查德RB动力煤离岸价格82.20美元/吨，环比上月下跌 6.60美元/吨，跌幅为7.43%；欧洲三港DES ARA动力煤离岸价格91.30美元/吨，环比上月下 跌8.00美元/吨，跌幅为8.06%。 8月陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量环比均上升。8月国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产 量：陕西产2111.90万吨，同比上升36万吨，涨幅为0.67%，环比上升46.70万吨，涨幅为 2.26%；山西产4632.80万吨，同比下降707.40万吨，跌幅为13.25%，环比上升98.6万吨，涨 幅为2.17%；内蒙古产1821。40万吨，同比下降3.30万吨，跌幅为0.18%，环比上37.80万 吨，涨幅为2.12%。 东兴证券近日发布煤炭行业报告：截至9月29日，秦皇岛港、黄骅港、曹妃甸港三 ...

Core Insights - The coal inventory in China is at a historically high level as of June 2025, with key coal enterprises holding 102 million tons, which is stable compared to the previous month and represents a year-on-year increase of 51.9% [1] - National thermal power plants have a coal stock of 21 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - Coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports stands at 27.65 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Inventory Trends - In late July, the coal inventory of key monitored coal enterprises decreased by 8.7% compared to the end of the previous month [1] - The coal stock at thermal power plants increased by 2.3% compared to the end of the previous month [1] - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased by 5.8% compared to the end of the previous month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report concludes that as of late June, coal production in major producing areas has declined, but overall supply remains relatively abundant. Power plant inventory depletion is slow, and with the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Port inventory is continuously decreasing. As temperatures rise nationwide, power plant daily consumption will continue to increase seasonally, and there will be necessary purchases later. The port FOB price is temporarily stable, and coal prices in the pithead area are expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On June 23, port market price - holding sentiment persisted, and trader quotes continued to rise. For example, the 5500 - kcal market quote was 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had their own price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In May 2025, China imported 2865.3 million tons of thermal coal (non - coking coal), a year - on - year decrease of 16.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of thermal coal was 14500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May 2025, China imported 738.7 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Pithead prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. Some coal mines have shut down, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have declined. As of June 22, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 66%, and in Yulin it was 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.7 million tons, but the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The domestic and imported markets showed different trends, with the domestic coal price basically stable and imported coal prices falling [5]. - **Demand**: Power plant loads were generally low, and inventories were at high levels. Power plants mainly relied on long - term contract coal. Some coastal power plants had nearly completed their August imported coal purchases. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair, providing stable support for coal prices in the pithead area [5]. - **Inventory**: Due to shipping losses, port inflows decreased. The daily average freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line dropped to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to around 30. Outflows were low, and port inventory continued to decrease. As of June 23, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was around 26.7 million tons, a reduction of 5 million tons from the high level but still relatively high. Coastal power plant daily consumption increased seasonally, but inventory depletion was slow, and inland power plant inventories remained high [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% week-on-week and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [2][3] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the sector and favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal) averaged 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% week-on-week and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The Bohai Rim port coal inventory reached 33.051 million tons, reflecting a 6.50% increase week-on-week and a 42.15% increase year-on-year [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points week-on-week and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points week-on-week and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, up 0.1% week-on-week and 4.7% year-on-year [4] Key Company Financials - China Shenhua (601088.SH) is projected to have an EPS of 2.50 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 16, and is rated "Accumulate" [6] - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) is expected to have an EPS of 1.31 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8, also rated "Accumulate" [6]

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry, focusing on pricing trends, inventory levels, and market dynamics in both domestic and international contexts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends**: - As of the last week, port prices for coal have dropped to 688, with some prices falling below 686, indicating a continued downward trend [1]. - The price at the pit has seen a slight increase of 2% to 3% after significant previous declines, but overall, prices are still in a phase of gradual bottoming out without a clear upward trend [1][6]. 2. **Inventory Levels**: - High inventory levels at ports are contributing to the downward pressure on prices, with total inventory at northern ports reported at 3,111 million tons, down slightly from 3,158 million tons but still at historically high levels [5]. - Power plants are also experiencing high inventory levels, leading to a lack of purchasing activity [5][6]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - There is a notable price inversion between pit and port prices, with pit prices around 740 while port prices remain below 690, leading to reduced shipping activity to ports [2]. - Internationally, Australian and Indonesian coal prices are stable or increasing, with Indonesian prices rising nearly 1% to 83.7 USD, but still showing a significant price inversion compared to domestic prices [3]. 4. **Policy and Regulation**: - There are rumors regarding potential restrictions on coal imports, but the likelihood of significant policy changes is considered low due to the ongoing focus on energy security [12][13]. - The discussion includes the impact of stricter inspections on imported coal, which may delay procurement but is not expected to significantly alter overall import volumes [15][16]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The coal market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with prices likely to continue fluctuating downwards, although there is potential for a bottoming out phase to begin around late April to early May [22][24]. - Long-term investment in coal stocks, particularly in dividend-paying companies like China Shenhua and Northeast Energy, is recommended as a defensive strategy [23][24]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlights the cautious sentiment among power plants regarding future coal purchases, with expectations that long-term contracts will not be signed aggressively due to current market conditions [17][18]. - The potential for a price rebound is acknowledged, but it is suggested that any significant upward movement in coal prices will take time and may not occur until the market stabilizes [24]. - The focus on maintaining price stability through inventory management strategies by major coal companies is emphasized, indicating a strategic approach to mitigate price volatility [21][22].