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中国神华(601088):拟收购集团资产整体上市 增强煤电化运一体化能力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 14:23
8 月1 日晚,中国神华发布公告,将筹划发行股份及支付现金收购集团持有的煤炭、坑口煤电以及煤制 油煤制气煤化工等相关资产并募集配套资金,同时公司A 股股票将于8 月4 日开市起停牌,预计停牌时 间不超过10 个交易日。具体收购资产包括:国源电力、化工公司、新疆能源、乌海能源、包头矿业、 神延煤炭、晋神能源、平庄煤业、内蒙建投、煤炭运销公司、港口公司、航运公司、电子商务公司的股 权。 煤价超预期下跌、火电业务受新能源挤压、一体化经营风险、分红政策调整风险。 1)根本性解决集团与神华的同业竞争问题,大幅减少关联交易。2)很大程度上增加煤炭等资源的储量 (资源稀缺性的价值不可忽视),增强能源保供能力。3)巩固和提升煤电化运一体化运行的能力和效 率。 4)大幅增强和优化公司的经营状况、盈利能力和现金流水平。我们认为本次收购大概率不会影响公司 现金分红能力,集团新领导上任后,公司各业务加速推进,利好公司长远发展。 【投资建议】 盈利预测与评级。我们认为,本次收购大概率不会影响公司现金分红能力,仍然有望超额兑现65%的分 红承诺;集团新领导上任后,公司各业务加速推进,利好公司长远发展;收购集团资产有利于增强公司 煤电化运 ...
中国神华(601088):首次覆盖报告:煤电化运一体化布局,铸就央企高分红典范
CMS· 2025-07-21 08:55
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal industry with a vertically integrated business model encompassing coal, electricity, transportation, and coal chemical sectors, which enhances its resilience against industry cyclicality [4][11]. - The company has a robust financial management capability, maintaining a low debt level and high cash flow, which supports a high dividend payout ratio [4][11]. - The coal supply-demand balance is shifting towards tight equilibrium, providing support for future coal prices [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd., is a flagship listed company under the State Energy Investment Group, with significant coal reserves and a diversified energy portfolio [11][13]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds coal resources of 344 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 151 billion tons, making it a dominant player in the industry [4][11]. Industry Analysis - The coal industry is experiencing limited production growth due to resource constraints and a shift towards energy transition, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [4][33]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to rise as the economy recovers, supporting price stability [4][33]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 338.4 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 58.67 billion yuan, down 1.71% [5][23]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, reflecting a dividend rate of 76.5% [4][31]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with expected revenue growth in the coming years [4][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 277.77 billion, 302.72 billion, and 337.41 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 48.54 billion, 50.15 billion, and 52.52 billion yuan [4][5].