煤矿供应端扰动持续， 11月关注回调做多机会 煤焦月度报告 20251103 正信期货研究院 黑色小组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 10月偏强运行，11月关注回调做多机会；10月落地两轮提涨，三轮提涨已开启 | | | 供给 | 10月焦化开工回落，供应端收紧 | | | 需求 | 铁水略有回落、尚在高位，原料刚需支撑较强；投机情绪改善，出口利润小幅回落，建材现货成交低于历年同期 | | | 库存 | 钢厂降库、港口增库，焦企降库不明显，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 吨焦盈利改善不明显，焦炭盘面利润走弱 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭01升水走扩，1-5价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 焦炭方面，焦化受制于环保以及亏损，另外部分焦化集中检修较多，供应端偏紧。需求方面，铁水维持相对高位，支撑原料 需求。 | | | 价格 供应 | 10月偏强运行，11月关注回调做多机会；10月现货走强 10月产地煤矿事故扰动较多，供应端偏紧；10月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot transaction of coking coal improved. With the news of the upcoming central safety production assessment and inspection in 2025 and better - than - expected steel production reduction and inventory depletion data, both coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly. As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 [8]. - In the context of anti - involution expectations and over - production inspection policies, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of coal mines. Pig iron production remains at a high level, and the spot transaction of coking coal is acceptable. The upward space of coking coal depends on the macro situation and the sustainability of steel inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and continue to pay attention to the reverse spread of coking coal 1 - 5. In the long term, coking coal maintains a bullish outlook under the expectations of a strict macro environment and coal mine safety supervision [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly. The second - round price increase of spot coke started but has not been implemented yet. The spot price remained stable, and attention should be paid to this week's macro and steel data. The freight for coke transportation remained stable [6][9][16]. - The coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - Profit compression and production reduction in some coking plants led to a slight tightening of coke supply. As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.24%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 65.29 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 45.94 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week [27][32]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. However, after the holiday, due to logistics, weather and other reasons, the inventory - building pace of steel mills was slow. As of October 17, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons from the previous week; and the profitability rate of steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points from the previous week [35]. - Speculative sentiment was average, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials was lower than the same period in previous years [37]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total coke inventory decreased by 17.87 tons to 891.88 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the port inventory increased by 0.06 tons to 195.15 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.55 tons to 57.29 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 11.38 tons to 639.44 tons [42][45]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the futures market profit of coke weakened slightly. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan from the previous week. The futures market profit of coke 01 decreased by 9.4 yuan/ton to 143.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 44.3 to - 81.86 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4 to - 148 compared with the previous week [57]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Most of the spot prices increased [60][63]. - The coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants was basically flat, the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Mongolian Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, and the year - on - year decline in imported coking coal from January to August 2025 narrowed [66][74]. - As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.79%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average clean coal output was 26.11 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons from the previous week [71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories appropriately, coal mines did not accumulate obvious inventories, and the total inventory increased. As of October 17, the total coking coal inventory increased by 42.95 tons to 2554.22 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises increased by 9.55 tons to 205.41 tons, the port inventory decreased by 22.28 tons to 272.71 tons, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 10.18 tons to 290.41 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 38.31 tons to 997.37 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 7.19 tons to 788.32 tons [77][80]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The basis of coking coal 01 weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 33 to 8 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14 to - 82.5 compared with the previous week [101].