| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3870 | 1.19 | -2.56 | -0.77 | | | | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | I | | | 2 . . | A | 1 | | | | | 11/ | | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 18 日 中国铁建（01186）深度：报表优化，分红提升，估值修复 ◼ 亮点一：2026 年行业投资维稳，总量有支撑。年初至今固定资产投资增速 放缓，基建、制造业、地产均呈现压力，展望 2026 年，随着地方政府化债 的有序推进，叠加中央"两重"项目实施，2026 年投资有望维稳。 ◼ 亮点二：公司新签订单边际改善，结构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳 健增长 。公司 2021-2024 、 2025Q1-3 累计新签合同额分别同比 +10.39%/+15.09%/+1.51%/-7.80%/+3.08%，2025 年前三季度新签订 单边际改善。 | 风格指数 ...

压力与韧性 双双双双 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 2 作者：刘宇涵 从业资格证号：F03121274 ◼ 焦炭： ◼ 供应端：2025年1-10月，我国焦炭累计产量4.19亿吨，累计同比+3.3%；今年焦炭产能及产量均增长，焦炭仍处于过剩，长期来看，焦化落 后产能将面临淘汰，目前对产量的影响较小，焦企生产仍跟随利润及需求调整，我们预计26年焦炭产量约有300万吨的减量，累计产量在 4.94亿吨，实际供应4.1亿吨，累计同比-0.6%； ◼ 需求端：2025年1-10月，247钢厂日均铁水累计同比增长+3.3%，年内铁水产量多数时间处在同比偏高水平，预计焦炭全年国内消费约3.99 亿吨，同比+2.2%；26年钢材供给需求均无太大驱动，预估生铁产量或同比持平，相应焦炭国内消费持平在3.99亿吨；出口方面，我国焦炭 存在一定价格优势，但印尼今年产量及出口增长形成冲击，26年我们预估焦炭出口降至750万吨左右； ◼ 库存：焦炭今年整体库存结构与焦煤类似，上半年焦企库存压力较大，下半年上游库存向下游转移，折算焦煤焦炭加权库存全年呈现去库 格局；26年焦炭仍存在过剩压力，预计库存小幅累积； ◼ 整体而言，焦炭仍跟 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is in a volatile state, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% to 3939.81 points, and over 4100 stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [7]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are given, such as steel and ore may be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term; coal and coke prices may continue to decline in the short - term; lithium carbonate may see a price correction in Q1 2026 but offers a chance to buy on dips [11][12][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. A - shares are volatile and declining, with most stocks falling. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate, which may be due to technical factors, export drag, "anti - involution" impact, and the real - estate cycle [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Although the market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, there is still a possibility of interest - rate cuts. Maintain a bullish view on the bond market due to the decline in fiscal policy. The tax - payment period has tightened the capital market, and the bond market's news is light. The 10 - month macro - data shows a decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment, except for a decrease in the unemployment rate [8]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - Future market view: In the short - term, the industry may return to fundamentals after a series of macro - events. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro - expectations. - Fundamental analysis: Demand is weak, supply may decline later, and inventory is high compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, while coal and coke futures prices are weak. Steel prices are likely to remain weak. - Trend: Steel and ore are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. - Spot market: Steel and iron ore spot prices show different trends, and the overall trading volume is poor [10][11]. Coal and Coke - View: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to decline in the short - term. Later, pay attention to the impact of coal - mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot - metal production. - Fluctuation reason: Coal production has increased slightly but remains low, and coke production is in a loss state. The demand for raw materials from steel mills is still supported in the short - term. - Future outlook: The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium - term, but it may increase in the short - term. The weakening demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk still restrict the prices of coal and coke [12]. Ferroalloys - Market outlook: The volatility of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has increased, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The market is still in a volatile range, and there is no obvious negative feedback [13]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: The current fundamentals are good, but there is an expectation of weakening demand in the power sector in Q1 2026. If production resumes at Jiaxiaowo and demand weakens, the price may continue to correct. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is in a range - bound state and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - Polysilicon: The industry still has expectations for "anti - involution." The spot price is firm, and the supply - demand contradiction is weak. It will continue to be volatile [18]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The high cost resists price declines, and it is in a low - level volatile state. - Future outlook: The USDA's November supply - demand report is bearish, and domestic supply is large while demand is weak. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, which limits the decline [21]. Sugar - Logic and view: The domestic sugar supply - demand outlook is bearish. Before the large - scale impact of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. There is still supply pressure in the long - term. - Future outlook: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Domestic new sugar production is increasing, and the low cost of imported sugar suppresses the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures [23]. Eggs - View: The spot market is weak, and the futures price has declined to correct the premium. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the probability of a significant price increase before the Spring Festival is low. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [26]. Apples - View: The price is in a volatile state. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is low while the price is high. The follow - up consumption will affect the future price [28]. Corn - View: Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still large. The price may correct, but the decline space is limited [29]. Red Dates - View: Temporarily wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level and are in a volatile and slightly upward state [30]. Pigs - Overall view: The supply pressure continues, and demand is average. The spot price is likely to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [30]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: The market is balancing the impact of supply surplus and geopolitical conflicts. The supply is expected to be in surplus in Q1 2026, and OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but this has not fundamentally changed the situation. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to be volatile [33]. Fuel Oil - The price is influenced by geopolitical and macro - factors and will follow the trend of crude - oil prices. The supply is loose, and demand is weak [34]. Plastics - View: Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and are expected to be weak and volatile. However, the high production cost of upstream enterprises may provide some support [35]. Rubber - Strategy: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between RU and NR. After the price rebounds, appropriately reduce the position of selling out - of - the - money put options. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [36]. Methanol - View: The market is highly volatile due to factors such as whether Iran restricts gas supply and port inventory changes. The supply pressure is large, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month contracts can be slightly long after a rebound [37]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is declining, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. There are factors driving the long - position, such as rising coal prices. It is recommended to seize long - position opportunities [39]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [40]. Pulp - The market sentiment has weakened, and the price is in a wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are weak and volatile, and the spot price has declined. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is expected to be under pressure [46]. Urea - The spot price is expected to strengthen, and the futures market is also expected to be strong [47]. Synthetic Rubber - The price is in a short - term range - bound state. It is advisable to be cautious when going long and can sell call options after a rebound [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - The downstream demand is insufficient, and the market lacks continuous driving force. It is expected to be in a volatile state in the short - term [42]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Although the short - term fundamentals are favorable, the price has risen significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the rise. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [44].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan, License No. Z0022723 [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - **Price Range Forecast (Monthly)** - Coking Coal: 1100 - 1350 [3] - Coke: 1550 - 1850 [3] - **Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling)** - Coking Coal: 36.02% [3] - Coke: 28.42% [3] - **Current Volatility Historical Percentile** - Coking Coal: 69.61% [3] - Coke: 60.19% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging** - Scenario: Steel mills' profit margins are shrinking, making it difficult for coke producers to raise prices. Coke producers are worried about future price drops and want to lock in sales prices in advance. - Strategy: Short the Coke 2601 contract. - Hedging Tool: J2601 (Sell) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1780, 1830); 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management** - Scenario: Macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating. Coking coal mine production rates are seasonally low. Factors such as over - production checks and anti - cut - throat competition in the fourth quarter are affecting coking coal supply. Coking plants are worried about future price increases and want to lock in procurement prices in advance. - Strategy: Long the Coking Coal 2605 contract. - Hedging Tool: JM2605 (Buy) - Recommended Hedging Ratio: 25% at (1150, 1180); 50% at (1120, 1150) [3] Group 4: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 11 - 17 | 2025 - 11 - 14 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 108272 | 111927 | 128592 | - 3655 | - 20320 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Tons | 150567 | 144083 | 127028 | 6484 | 23539 | | Iron Ore | Lots | 900 | 900 | 800 | 0 | 100 | | Coking Coal | Lots | 100 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 2070 | 2070 | 2070 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Contracts | 8450 | 8450 | 5699 | 0 | 2751 | | Ferromanganese | Contracts | 19863 | 18663 | 14358 | 1200 | 5505 | [4] Group 5: Core Logic and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Logic** - Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized stable energy production and supply and peak - period energy security, but this is a routine policy and not the core reason for the downward trend in the futures market. - The key factors are the large increase in coking coal and thermal coal spot prices, low acceptance from downstream users, strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and miners' fear of high prices leading to faster sales. - Downstream steel mills' losses are increasing, more steel mills plan to conduct maintenance, iron - water production is expected to decline, and coal - coke demand is seasonally weakening. It is difficult for the fourth round of coke price increases to be implemented. - In the short term, futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure. In the long term, over - production checks and safety production policies will limit coking coal supply elasticity. With the upcoming winter storage demand, the downward space for coking coal spot prices is limited. [4] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Coking Coal reference range: (1100, 1350); Coke reference range: (1600, 1850). If prices fall to the lower end of the range and show signs of stabilization and rebound, consider going long. [4] Group 6:利多 and利空解读 - **利多解读** - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of "anti - cut - throat competition" and "over - production checks" policies, domestic mine production rates face a theoretical upper limit, restricting coking coal supply elasticity. - As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market outlook has improved significantly, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal - coke prices. [6] - **利空解读** - Recently, steel mills' profits have been damaged, the number of maintenance steel mills has increased, iron - water production has decreased month - on - month, end - users generally believe that current coking coal spot prices are too high, and their willingness to purchase is low. Coal - coke demand has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustment. [7] Group 7: Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices** - Multiple indicators such as coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, and related ratios (e.g., coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc.) are provided with specific values and their daily and weekly changes. [8] - **Spot Prices** - Spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported ones, are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. Import and export profits for different types of coal and coke are also presented. [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in coking coal prices, attributing it to a shift in supply expectations following a meeting held by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season in 2025-2026 [4][7]. Market Review - Coking coal prices saw a substantial decline, with the main contract for January 2024 closing at 1213 CNY/ton, down 3.81%, and the May contract at 1272 CNY/ton, down 2.04% [4]. Reasons for Coking Coal Price Drop - The drop in coking coal prices occurred despite strong fundamentals, primarily due to a change in supply expectations after the government meeting emphasized the importance of ensuring energy supply for the heating season [7][9]. Fundamental Conditions - Since June, coal prices have rebounded significantly from below 620 CNY/ton to 817 CNY/ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and a potential cold winter increasing demand [9][12]. - Current market conditions indicate a tight balance in the spot market, with domestic coal production remaining low, although there has been an increase in imported coal from Mongolia [12][15]. Variables to Monitor - The article suggests that while the market has reacted to supply expectation changes, actual coal production has not yet increased, and significant growth in production is unlikely in the fourth quarter due to safety production requirements [15]. - The focus should be on whether the spot market will adjust in response to the futures market's decline [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot transaction of coking coal improved. With the news of the upcoming central safety production assessment and inspection in 2025 and better - than - expected steel production reduction and inventory depletion data, both coking coal and coke fluctuated strongly. As of Friday's close, the coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676, and the coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 [8]. - In the context of anti - involution expectations and over - production inspection policies, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of coal mines. Pig iron production remains at a high level, and the spot transaction of coking coal is acceptable. The upward space of coking coal depends on the macro situation and the sustainability of steel inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and continue to pay attention to the reverse spread of coking coal 1 - 5. In the long term, coking coal maintains a bullish outlook under the expectations of a strict macro environment and coal mine safety supervision [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly. The second - round price increase of spot coke started but has not been implemented yet. The spot price remained stable, and attention should be paid to this week's macro and steel data. The freight for coke transportation remained stable [6][9][16]. - The coke 01 contract rose 0.87% to 1676 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - Profit compression and production reduction in some coking plants led to a slight tightening of coke supply. As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.24%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 65.29 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 45.94 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week [27][32]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. However, after the holiday, due to logistics, weather and other reasons, the inventory - building pace of steel mills was slow. As of October 17, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons from the previous week; and the profitability rate of steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points from the previous week [35]. - Speculative sentiment was average, export profit changed little, and the daily trading volume of building materials was lower than the same period in previous years [37]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total coke inventory decreased by 17.87 tons to 891.88 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the port inventory increased by 0.06 tons to 195.15 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 6.55 tons to 57.29 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 11.38 tons to 639.44 tons [42][45]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the futures market profit of coke weakened slightly. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan from the previous week. The futures market profit of coke 01 decreased by 9.4 yuan/ton to 143.3 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 increased, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 01 decreased by 44.3 to - 81.86 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4 to - 148 compared with the previous week [57]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term. Most of the spot prices increased [60][63]. - The coking coal 01 contract rose 1.2% to 1179 as of Friday's close [8]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas continued to recover, the output of coal washing plants was basically flat, the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Mongolian Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, and the year - on - year decline in imported coking coal from January to August 2025 narrowed [66][74]. - As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 35.79%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average clean coal output was 26.11 tons, an increase of 0.45 tons from the previous week [71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories appropriately, coal mines did not accumulate obvious inventories, and the total inventory increased. As of October 17, the total coking coal inventory increased by 42.95 tons to 2554.22 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises increased by 9.55 tons to 205.41 tons, the port inventory decreased by 22.28 tons to 272.71 tons, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 10.18 tons to 290.41 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 38.31 tons to 997.37 tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills increased by 7.19 tons to 788.32 tons [77][80]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The basis of coking coal 01 weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 33 to 8 compared with the previous week, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14 to - 82.5 compared with the previous week [101].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in Hong Kong has seen a general increase in stock prices, driven by a recovery in Mongolian coal imports and a supportive supply-demand balance for coking coal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks in Hong Kong experienced widespread gains, with Yanzhou Coal Mining rising by 4%, South Gobi and Green Leader Holdings increasing by 2.5%, and other companies like Yancoal Australia and Shougang Resources also seeing gains of over 2% [1][2]. - Specific stock price movements include Yanzhou Coal at 10.970 with a 3.98% increase, South Gobi at 2.450 with a 2.51% increase, and Green Leader Holdings at 0.083 with a 2.47% increase [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Zheshang Securities, the third quarter saw a rebound in Mongolian coal imports, which, along with a recovery in supply chain trade profits, indicates a potential for profit restoration in Mongolian coal trading enterprises [1]. - The report suggests that if the coal industry continues to enforce production checks, the tight supply-demand balance for coking coal may support prices [1]. - Zhongtai Securities noted that despite short-term pressures from poor mid-year performance and the tech sector's influence, there are new investment opportunities emerging in the coal sector, recommending active positioning to capitalize on these opportunities [1].

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Black Metal Industry - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Guo Chao [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM01 at 1161 (down 3 from yesterday), JM05 at 1259 (down 4), JM09 at 1346 (down 5) - **Coke Futures**: J01 at 1666.5 (up 12.5 from yesterday), J05 at 1819 (up 10), J09 at 1896.5 (up 1.5) [3] Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Spot**: Low - sulfur prime coking coal at 1530 (unchanged), Medium - sulfur prime coking coal at 1280 (unchanged) - **Coke Spot**: Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) at 1420 (unchanged), Port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) at 1650 (unchanged) [3] Warehouse Receipts - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipts**: Shanxi coal at 1200 (unchanged), Meng 5 at 1164 (unchanged) - **Coke Warehouse Receipts**: Port spot (wet - quenched) at 1527 (unchanged), Port spot (dry - quenched) at 1650 (unchanged) [3] Basis - **Coking Coal Basis**: For Shanxi coal, 01 contract at 39, 05 contract at - 59, 09 contract at - 146 - **Coke Basis**: For port spot (wet - quenched), 01 contract at - 140, 05 contract at - 182, 09 contract at - 260 [3] Transportation Prices - **Coking Coal Transportation**: Jiexiu to Fengnan District at 140 (unchanged), Xiaoyi to Guye District at 150 (unchanged) - **Coke Transportation**: Jiexiu to Rizhao Port at 160 (down 15 from yesterday), Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port at 165 (down 15) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a bottom - fishing buying strategy for coking coal, but be cautious about the upside potential [6] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Futures - Spot**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Domestic coking coal supply in October is expected to be stable, lower than last year. Imported coal has room for growth. Future coal production may be restricted by policies such as over - production checks [6] - **Demand**: Iron production in October is expected to remain high, supporting raw material prices. Steel demand has resilience but lacks obvious highlights, restricting the upside of raw material prices [6] Group 4: Important Information - **Steel Mills**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.27%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, up 3.48 percentage points year - on - year. Daily iron production is 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from last week, up 8.46 tons year - on - year [8] - **Coking Coal Market**: In the Lvliang coking coal online auction on the 10th, most prices rose. The total listed volume was 192,000 tons, with 172,000 tons sold and 20,000 tons unsold [10] Group 5: Related Drawings - **Coking Coal**: Include price charts of medium - sulfur prime coking coal, Meng 5 clean coal, high - quality low - volatile Australian coal, etc., as well as basis charts of coking coal [13][15][16] - **Coke**: Include price index charts, export price charts, and basis charts of coke [23][24][27]