燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 月度观点综述 | | --- | CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，前期检修的炼厂继续回归，全球各地炼厂开工率逐步上升到年内高位，全球燃料 | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 油产量因此进一步上升。而在需求方面，船燃市场表现平淡，中东地区发电需求季节性走弱，同时中国、 | | | 印度进料需求仍未见恢复。 | | 价格与价差 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内继续下跌，但高硫弱势有所削减，裂解表现相对强于低硫。月 | | | 差方面，近端现货供应充足甚至趋于过剩的格局仍然压制近月合约估值，导致月差持续处于Contango结构。 | | | 高硫方面，中东地区12月出口数量有所下滑，但产量仍然处于高位，同时从船期数据来看，1月出口仍 | | | 然将大幅上升，亚太地区预计仍 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated, the near - month spread fluctuated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and had wide - range fluctuations recently, and the domestic and foreign near - months of FU fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis fluctuated. Fundamentally, the residual oil in Singapore decreased, the floating storage fluctuated, the ARA residual oil inventory decreased slightly, the EIA residual oil decreased slightly, the Fujairah inventory decreased, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by the reshaped logistics and the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, the 380 cracking level has been supported by the refinery's raw material procurement, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the domestic FU will have a short - term internal and external fluctuating and bullish trend. This week, the LU disk was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis fluctuated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be expanded on dips. Pay attention to the quota usage [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 386.97 to 412.75, a change of 5.02; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 427.29 to 447.68, a change of 4.71; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased from - 4.97 to - 4.79, a change of - 0.69; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 664.85 to 705.52, a change of 9.10; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 237.56 to - 257.84, a change of - 4.39; LGO - Brent M1 increased from 24.40 to 26.82, a change of 0.57; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 40.32 to 34.93, a change of - 0.31 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 393.02 to 412.16, a change of 4.84; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 403.27 to 421.41, a change of 5.15; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from 465.33 to 479.10, a change of 3.43; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 87.43 to 91.66, a change of 1.77; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.47 to - 3.78, a change of 0.05; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 181.65 to - 199.18, a change of - 9.66 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 393.48 to 413.20, a change of 5.67; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 463.33 to 478.80, a change of 4.92; the 380 basis increased from 0.60 to 1.35, a change of 0.10; the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 6.0 to 7.2, a change of - 0.4; the low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.7 to 11.1, a change of 0.9 [3] Domestic FU - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2784 to 2918, a change of 31; the price of FU 05 increased from 2743 to 2855, a change of 25; the price of FU 09 increased from 2697 to 2757, a change of 19; FU 01 - 05 increased from 41 to 63, a change of 6; FU 05 - 09 increased from 46 to 98, a change of 6; FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 87 to - 161, a change of - 12 [3] Domestic LU - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3351 to 3464, a change of 33; the price of LU 05 increased from 3342 to 3440, a change of 51; the price of LU 09 increased from 3306 to 3400, a change of 37; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 9 to 24, a change of - 18; LU 05 - 09 increased from 36 to 40, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 increased from - 45 to - 64, a change of 4 [4]