燃料油产业数据月报 研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 月度观点综述 | | --- | CONTENTS Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 炼厂开工与产量方面，前期检修的炼厂继续回归，全球各地炼厂开工率逐步上升到年内高位，全球燃料 | | --- | --- | | 供需 | 油产量因此进一步上升。而在需求方面，船燃市场表现平淡，中东地区发电需求季节性走弱，同时中国、 | | | 印度进料需求仍未见恢复。 | | 价格与价差 | 绝对价格方面，全球各地燃料油价格月内继续下跌，但高硫弱势有所削减，裂解表现相对强于低硫。月 | | | 差方面，近端现货供应充足甚至趋于过剩的格局仍然压制近月合约估值，导致月差持续处于Contango结构。 | | | 高硫方面，中东地区12月出口数量有所下滑，但产量仍然处于高位，同时从船期数据来看，1月出口仍 | | | 然将大幅上升，亚太地区预计仍 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The automotive and fuel markets are experiencing mixed trends, with a slight decline in passenger vehicle sales in China, new fuel taxes in Singapore, and varied fuel sales in India, while the fuel oil market faces supply and demand challenges. Group 1: Automotive Market - In October, the wholesale sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles in China reached 1.31 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the wholesale sales totaled 11.7 million units, down 2% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Fuel Tax and Sales - Starting next year, departing airline passengers from Singapore will pay up to 41.60 SGD (31.95 USD) as a green fuel tax, aimed at reducing emissions in the aviation sector [1] - In India, fuel sales in October decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 17.017 million tons, with diesel sales down 0.3% and gasoline sales up 7.4% [1] Group 3: Fuel Oil Market - The Asian low-sulfur fuel market is facing challenges due to ample immediate supply and sluggish downstream marine fuel activity, with the closure of the East-West arbitrage window potentially reducing European arbitrage cargoes in December [2] - The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable downstream demand, but supply remains sufficient, with ongoing sanctions affecting Russian and Iranian volumes [2] - Market expectations indicate that fuel oil supply is ample, which is bearish for fuel oil prices, while sanctions on Russia and reduced trade tensions between China and the U.S. could support prices [3] - Strategies suggest focusing on short-selling opportunities in the main fuel oil contracts [3]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...