交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-18燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：尽管380CST高硫燃料油的现货溢价有所上升，但亚洲高硫燃料油市场结构出现走弱。不过交易商预计，短 期内中东战争和区域内出口限制将继续推高燃料油基本面；由于未来几周来自西方的套利船货流入量持续锐减，新加坡 低硫燃料油库存在3月底和4月将出现明显的下降；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油749.07美元/吨，基差为468元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为923.46美元/吨，基差为798元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油3月11日当周库存为2449.9万桶，减少125万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [3] Core View - The overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, and fuel oil followed suit. The fundamentals of fuel oil have slightly improved. High - sulfur fuel oil still has some summer consumption support downstream, and the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, which partially supports the price to remain strong. The FU2510 is expected to operate in the range of 2790 - 2830, and the LU2511 is expected to operate in the range of 3380 - 3420 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil: Although the volume of arbitrage cargo from the West received in Singapore in September will decrease by about 300,000 tons month - on - month, the regular export tenders for September shipments will keep the market well - supplied until October. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market may continue to be supported by regional raw material demand and the final stage of Middle - East summer power - generation demand. However, traders are worried that the increasing supply will put pressure on the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [3] - The basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 26 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of September 10 was 23.039 million barrels, a decrease of 270,000 barrels [3] - The disk: The price is near the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3] - Main positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, and the short position is decreasing; the main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, and the long position is decreasing [3] 2. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: There may be an increase in sanctions against Russia [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 2733 to 2787, a rise of 54 or 1.98%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 3288 to 3353, a rise of 65 or 1.98%. The FU basis decreased from 164 to 26, a decrease of 138 or 84.03%. The LU basis decreased from 144 to - 23, a decrease of 167 or 116.22% [5] - Spot market: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 475.00 to 465.00, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.11%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 495.00 to 485.00, a decrease of 10.00 or 2.02%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 393.10 to 384.60, a decrease of 8.50 or 2.16%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 467.50 to 458.50, a decrease of 9.00 or 1.93%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 370.77 to 362.27, a decrease of 8.50 or 2.29%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 646.70 to 638.15, a decrease of 8.56 or 1.32% [6] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis other than the futures price and basis changes [3][5] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory: On July 2, it was 21.329 million barrels, a decrease of 1.42 million barrels; on July 9, it was 20.809 million barrels, a decrease of 0.52 million barrels; on July 16, it was 20.359 million barrels, a decrease of 0.45 million barrels; on July 23, it was 19.909 million barrels, a decrease of 0.45 million barrels; on July 30, it was 20.279 million barrels, an increase of 0.37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 20.749 million barrels, an increase of 0.47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 22.639 million barrels, an increase of 1.89 million barrels; on August 20, it was 23.919 million barrels, an increase of 1.28 million barrels; on August 27, it was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels; on September 3, it was 23.309 million barrels, an increase of 1.42 million barrels; on September 10, it was 23.039 million barrels, a decrease of 0.27 million barrels [8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market is waiting for more news from the US and Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. In the short term, it will be in a state of stable oscillation. Fuel oil will follow this trend, with FU2509 operating in the range of 2670 - 2730 and LU2510 in the range of 3450 - 3500 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has slightly declined, partly due to concerns about an abundant supply of short - term arbitrage cargoes. However, traders expect the market fundamentals to gradually stabilize as the market shifts to trading September second - half cargoes. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although tight shipping schedules support the downstream bunker market demand, traders are worried that the decline in power generation demand after the Middle - East summer peak may increase the supply pressure in Singapore [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 162 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: There may be an intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 5 to 2700, a decline of 0.18%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased by 11 to 3459, an increase of 0.32%. The basis of FU decreased by 21 to 162, a decline of 11.24%. The basis of LU decreased by 33 to 75, a decline of 30.84% [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 486, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 3 to 505, an increase of 0.60%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 387.97, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 482.5, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 368.24, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.84 to 606.32, a decline of 1.44% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: On August 13, the inventory was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the fuel oil market is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory operation. The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) is expected to operate in the range of 2720 - 2770, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) is expected to operate in the range of 3460 - 3500. Overnight crude oil showed weak performance, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The market is waiting for the US - Russia talks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread has narrowed to the smallest discount level in six weeks, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly. Although regional supply is still abundant, it is expected that the market will not reach the lows of previous weeks. Supply is expected to decrease from September, which will support the market [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 141 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 85 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract's short position is decreasing, while the low - sulfur main contract's long position is increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 141 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 85 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) main contract futures price decreased by 5 to 2769, a decrease of 0.18%. The low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) main contract futures price increased by 30 to 3499, an increase of 0.86%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 77 to 141, a decrease of 35.30%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 57 to 85, a decrease of 40.02% [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 5 to 492, an increase of 1.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6 to 506, an increase of 1.20%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9.73 to 392.54, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 to 486.5, a decrease of 0.61%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 10.11 to 373.18, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.63 to 619.66, a decrease of 1.37% [6]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 47 million barrels to 2074.9 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear overall industry investment rating is provided, but individual factors are evaluated as follows: neutral for fundamentals, bullish for basis, bearish for inventory, bearish for the market trend, bearish for high - sulfur main positions and bullish for low - sulfur main positions [3] Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly recovered, but concerns about sufficient supply and the decline of seasonal utility power generation demand remain. More low - sulfur blending components are expected to flow into the Asian market in August. The fuel oil market is generally weak due to factors such as the continued decline of crude oil prices, insufficient news support, and weak downstream demand. The expected operating ranges are 2790 - 2830 for FU2509 and 3500 - 3550 for LU2510 [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - In terms of fundamentals, the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has a slight recovery, but supply and demand concerns persist. For basis, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils have positive basis, with spot prices higher than futures. Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 370,000 barrels to 20.279 million barrels in the week of July 30. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. High - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The fuel oil market is expected to be weak, with specific operating ranges provided for different contracts [3] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the weak upstream crude oil prices. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - The previous and current values, changes, and change amplitudes of the futures prices and basis of FU and LU main contracts are presented. For example, the FU main contract futures price increased from 2818 to 2819 with a 0.04% increase, and its basis increased by 23 to 173 with a 15.13% increase [5] 4. Spread Data - Not explicitly elaborated in the provided content 5. Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from May 21 to July 30 are shown. The inventory on July 30 was 20.279 million barrels, an increase of 370,000 barrels compared to the previous period [8]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil market is expected to be neutral in terms of fundamentals, with a short - term outlook of strong performance. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the 2890 - 2930 range, and the LU2510 is expected to trade in the 3600 - 3640 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fuel oil market's fundamentals are neutral, with the spot window stabilizing. High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - surplus and weak demand in the utility sector. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory decreased in the week of July 23. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are mostly short. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term due to news of US sanctions on Russia [3] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Summer power generation demand is expected to increase [3][4] - **Likely to Fall**: Demand optimism needs verification, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Market may be briefly weak, but the spot window is stable. August's arbitrage shipments from the West to Singapore are expected to decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil has supply surplus and weak utility demand in summer; neutral [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 403.25 dollars/ton with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is at 506.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 172 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels; bullish [3] - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [3] - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, low - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing; bearish [3] 5. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific content on spread data [2] Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels. The inventory has shown a downward trend recently [3][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market are still supported due to the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components, despite a slight increase in the arrival volume of arbitrage vessels from the West. The downstream marine fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong and is also supported by the peak summer power generation season. The intensifying Israel - Iran conflict may boost the sales of Singapore marine fuel in the short term [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, and the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upward. However, the high - sulfur main position has a long position with a decrease in long positions, while the low - sulfur main position has a short position with an increase in short positions [3]. - After the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the geopolitical concern has been raised again. Crude oil prices opened higher, and it is expected that fuel oil will follow the upward trend. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the range of 3380 - 3450, and the LU2508 in the range of 4000 - 4050 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil are positive, with the basis showing a spot premium, inventory decreasing, price above the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur main position being long (although long positions are decreasing) and the low - sulfur main position being short (with an increase in short positions). It is expected that fuel oil will follow the upward trend of crude oil due to geopolitical factors, with specific operating ranges for different contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The shortage of medium - sulfur blending components, strong downstream demand for high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on increasing the demand for refueling of detouring ships, the decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory, and the geopolitical concerns caused by the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high - sulfur main position has a decrease in long positions, and the low - sulfur main position has an increase in short positions [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The arrival volume of arbitrage vessels from the West has increased slightly, but the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components has led to a tight supply of compliant 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream marine fuel demand for high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the peak summer power generation season also provides support. The conflict may increase the demand for refueling of detouring ships [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 211 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 142 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are still supported due to the shortage of medium - sulfur blending components despite a slight increase in the arrival of arbitrage vessels from the West. The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream marine fuel demand remains strong and is also supported by the peak summer power generation season. With the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict, the shipping market's unease has increased, and the increased demand for refueling of detouring vessels may boost Singapore's marine fuel sales in the short term. Although the short - term geopolitical sentiment has eased to some extent, it remains at a high level. The fuel oil is expected to continue to operate at a high level in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 3380 - 3450 range, and the LU2508 in the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight, and high - sulfur fuel oil demand is strong. The conflict affects shipping and may increase fuel sales. Overall, it is a bullish factor [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 220,000 barrels to 22.899 million barrels in the week of June 18, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position has more long positions and an increase in longs, which is bullish; low - sulfur main position has more short positions and an increase in shorts, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The short - term geopolitical sentiment has eased but remains high. The detour demand supports the strength of fuel oil. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 3380 - 3450 range, and the LU2508 in the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the expected increase in summer power generation demand [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The current price of the FU main contract is 3337, up 19 or 0.57% from the previous value; the LU main contract is 3943, up 51 or 1.31%. The FU basis decreased by 31 to 219, a decrease of 12.54%; the LU basis decreased by 11 to 92, a decrease of 10.76% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The current price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil is 550, up 5 or 0.92%; Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil is 556, up 4 or 0.72%. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 486.69, up 0.5 or 0.10%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 556.5, up 9 or 1.64%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil is 463.61, up 0.87 or 0.19%; Singapore diesel is 685.42, up 20.88 or 3.14% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations. In the week of June 18, the inventory was 22.899 million barrels, a decrease of 220,000 barrels [8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report provides a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread from September 7, 2021, to June 7, 2025, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is given [13].