东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：降温持续美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截至 2025/12/05，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动 +13.2%/-6.2%/-1.9%/-1.4%/-6.5%至1.3/2.3/2.8/2.9/2.6元/方。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 价格跟踪：降温持续美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截至2025/12/05，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚 JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动+13.2%/-6.2%/-1.9%/-1.4%/-6.5%至1.3/2.3/2.8/2.9/2.6元/ 方。 供需分析：1）预计降温持续，美国天然气市场价格周环比+13.2%。截至2025/11/28，储气量周环比-120 亿立方英尺至39230亿立方英尺，同比-0.4%。2）提取库存，欧洲气价周环比-6.2%。2025M1-8，欧洲 天然气消费量为2884亿方，同比+4.6%。2025/11/27~2025/12/3，欧洲天然气供给周环比-9.9%至 92490GWh；其中，来自库存消耗29819GWh，周环比-29.7%；来自 ...

东吴证券指出，2025M1-9，我国天然气表观消费量同比+0.7%至3188亿方，原因或为2024年冬季偏暖， 影响了2025M1-3采暖用气需求。2025M1-9，产量同比+6.5%至1949亿方，进口量同比-6.2%至1307亿 方。该行续指，2022-2025M9，全国65%(188个)地级及以上城市进行了居民顺价，提价幅度为0.21元/ 方。2024年龙头城燃公司价差0.53-0.54元/方，配气费合理值在0.6元/方以上，价差仍存10%修复空间， 顺价仍将继续落地。展望2025年，供给宽松，燃气公司成本优化；价格机制继续理顺、需求放量。 智通财经APP获悉，中国燃气(00384)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.27%，报8.52港元，成交额1.02亿港元。 消息面上，据新华社报道，随着气温逐渐走低，北京即将进入新一轮采暖季。据北京燃气集团介绍，北 京今冬燃气保供工作已全面就绪，气源结构进一步优化、应急调峰能力也显著增强，确保首都市民温暖 过冬。值得一提的是，经过严格工艺处理的生物质天然气今冬将首次在北京并网。据了解，生物质天然 气是将生活垃圾等原料进行厌氧发酵、净化提纯处理后形成的可再生绿色能源，体现了能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the US has sufficient gas inventory leading to a decrease in gas prices, while Europe is advancing its storage and domestic demand is slowly recovering, resulting in relatively stable gas prices across regions [1][4] - The investment outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment, cost optimization for gas companies, and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms with increasing demand [52] Price Tracking - As of October 17, 2025, the week-on-week price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -8.6%, European TTF -1.7%, East Asia JKM +0.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF +5.5% [9][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the US natural gas market is experiencing a price drop due to ample inventory, with a total storage increase of 80 billion cubic feet to 37,210 billion cubic feet year-on-year [15] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 265.4 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5% [17] - Domestic gas prices in China saw a week-on-week decrease of 0.4%, with apparent consumption from January to August 2025 increasing by 0.8% year-on-year to 283.2 billion cubic meters [21][26] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually being implemented, with 65% of cities having executed residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, all of which have attractive dividend yields [52][53] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry, specifically recommending New Hope Holdings for its stable profits and high dividend yield [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high temperatures in the US are driving up gas prices, while European storage efforts are leading to price declines. Domestic gas prices are weak [10][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with US gas sources, particularly in light of the recent reduction of import tariffs on US LNG from 140% to 25% [56]. Price Tracking - As of July 18, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 9.1% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 3.2%. Domestic LNG prices showed a slight decline of 0.1% [10][15]. - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,131 billion cubic feet per day, with total demand rising by 2.2% to 1,070 billion cubic feet per day [17][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that European gas consumption from January to April 2025 was 1,920 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [20]. - Domestic apparent gas consumption in China decreased by 0.6% year-on-year to 1,786 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions and trade war impacts [31]. Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report states that 64% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [40]. Important Events - The reduction of US LNG import tariffs is expected to enhance the economic viability of US gas imports [46]. - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding natural gas storage targets, allowing for a 10% deviation from the 90% storage goal [53][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing mechanism adjustments, particularly New Hope Holdings, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [56].

Core Viewpoint - Leading gas companies have released their 2024 annual reports, indicating that price differentials and connection numbers meet expectations, while gas volumes are slightly lower than anticipated due to a warm winter. The growth of dual business segments shows divergence. Looking ahead to 2025, supply is expected to be ample, with cost optimization for gas companies and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms alongside increasing demand [1]. Price Tracking - The overall gas prices in Europe and the U.S. remain stable, with a continued price inversion between domestic and international markets. As of March 28, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas markets are as follows: U.S. HH -1.4%, Europe TTF -5.1%, East Asia JKM -2.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.6%, and China LNG CIF -7.4%. The domestic and international price inversion has decreased to 0.2 yuan per cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Warm weather has led to a slight increase in total gas supply, with a weekly rise of 0.1% to 1,108 billion cubic feet per day, and a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Total demand has increased by 3.4% week-on-week to 1,077 billion cubic feet per day, but is down 5.5% year-on-year. The residential and commercial sectors saw a significant increase in consumption, while industrial consumption remained stable [3]. - European gas prices have decreased by 5.1% due to ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In 2024, European gas consumption is projected at 4,387 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The supply from Europe has decreased by 17% week-on-week, with significant reductions in inventory consumption [4]. Market Demand and Pricing - Domestic gas prices have decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in January and February 2025 down 1.2% year-on-year to 717 billion cubic meters. The production has increased by 3.9% to 433 billion cubic meters, while imports have decreased by 8.1% to 284 billion cubic meters. The average import prices for LNG and gas have also shown a downward trend [5]. Pricing Progress - As of February 2025, 60% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The price differential for leading city gas companies is between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [6]. Important Events - Starting February 10, 2025, a 15% tariff has been imposed on LNG originating from the U.S., yet imported U.S. LNG still maintains a price advantage of 0.27 to 0.74 yuan per cubic meter in coastal regions. Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue to impact the market. Additionally, New Hope Group plans to privatize New Hope Energy with a transaction value of 59.924 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance earnings per share post-acquisition [7].