Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a notable upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, indicating a potential shift towards a bull market, although skepticism remains among investors regarding the sustainability of this rally [1] Group 1: Formation of Consensus - The essence of bull market consensus is the shift in market sentiment from a minority of optimism to a majority belief, often triggered by positive economic fundamentals, national policies, or industry trends [2] - Initially, positive signals are often weak and only perceptible to informed investors, while ordinary investors may remain skeptical due to recent bearish market memories [2] Group 2: Challenges in Consensus Expansion - The first challenge is overcoming cognitive inertia, where investors conditioned by previous downturns may hesitate to trust new positive signals [3] - The second challenge involves the need for tangible profit generation to validate the bullish narrative, requiring consistent performance and data to attract broader participation [3] - The third challenge is breaking through key psychological and technical levels in the market, where significant price points serve as both technical barriers and psychological burdens [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - The current market is in a critical phase of consensus formation, characterized by accumulating positive signals such as the Shanghai Composite Index's recovery and increased trading volume, indicating new capital inflow [4] - However, there remains significant divergence in market sentiment, with fluctuations around key levels like 4000 points, reflecting ongoing debates about market leadership [4] Group 4: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to maintain strategic focus and avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations, as the formation of consensus requires time and is often accompanied by volatility [5] - Emphasis should be placed on understanding the core logic driving the current market trends, rather than fixating on daily price movements, as this will provide opportunities for re-entry or portfolio optimization [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the MSCI China A50 Connect Index declining approximately 1.3%, led by stocks such as Pudong Development Bank, Agricultural Bank, and Haiguang Information [1] Market Performance - The A50 ETF (159601) is following the index adjustment, highlighting the value of low-position layouts [1] - The current market volatility is expected to be less than that of April, with the VIX index rising less than in April, and declines in U.S. stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and Chinese stock index futures being significantly smaller than in April [1] Investor Sentiment - There has been a positive shift in investor sentiment since the rise in April, with a stronger consensus on a bull market, which will serve as a source of confidence in facing external pressures [1] ETF Characteristics - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a one-click package of 50 leading interconnected assets, offering balanced coverage of core leading assets in the A-share market [1] - Compared to other "beautiful 50" indices, the MSCI China A50 Connect Index emphasizes liquidity and industry balance during its compilation, featuring significant large-cap characteristics [1]

昨天尾盘貌似某队拉了一下指数，于是各种自媒体兴奋得不得了，高呼护盘的来了，大家都有救了。 其实这是典型的弱者思维，看过电视剧《天道》的都懂。 还记得3.14日那天吧，护盘动作多么强烈，茅台都快拉冒烟了，结果呢，恰恰是最高点的前奏。 前些天的300点暴跌不是一个小事情，不要以为事情过了就没了，然后一边嘲笑老特，一边喝着饮料就能在大国自信中轻松跨越前高：瞧！咱是打不死的 小强，呵呵。 多么美好而遥远的救世主啊！ 什么是憋屈型结构，之前我写过一篇这方面的内容《 憋屈、深陷与舒展：大结构上的量价关系 》 就是价格高点梯次下降的同时，成交量也梯次下降，意味着每次向上都会遭遇不信任和暴击。所谓的牛市共识也逐渐在其中消磨殆尽。 当然，现在下过于悲观的结论确实也没必要，只是作为一个散户也没必要天天这么乐观，成交量在统计意义上可以表达市场情绪，反弹中缩量是不太可能 指向逼空上涨的。 虽然反弹强度尚可，但真正形成反转尚需一些合理的结构和外部环境。况且，能不能恢复到牛市结构还两说呢。半年来我第一次有这种顾虑。 要是从中证A500看，已经非常难看了，是一个典型的憋屈型整体量价结构： ...