~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 这波涨势的核心推手之一是围绕美国市场的套利活动和关税预期。提单数据显示，12月下旬美国铜进口 量激增至多年高位，COMEX铜相对于LME铜继续保持溢价。市场正在为持续到6月的关税风险定价， 这支撑了非美国地区的定价和价差。花旗的基本假设是，虽然市场在交易关税风险，但最终美国精炼铜 关税可能不会实质性落地，或者通过对智利等伙伴的豁免来缓解，但在此之前，这种不确定性仍是多头 的燃料。 对于基本面投资者而言，供给侧的反应不容忽视。花旗警告称，当前13000美元/吨的价格水平已经足以 刺激废铜回收的增加（以及替代效应），这将导致2026年全球实物市场趋于平衡： "我们认为，超过13000美元/吨的进一步涨幅最终都会被市场回吐。高价格有可能触发看跌 的实物信号，例如库存可见度和可用性的上升。" 虽然基准预测是回调，但花旗也保留了20%概率的"牛市情景"，即铜价冲向15000美元/吨。但这需要一 系列完美的宏观配合：投资者对美国经济"非常软着陆"的激进定价、美元进一步走弱、美联储更大幅度 的降息引发周期性增长复苏，或者是供应端出现意外冲击（如矿山供应问题或废铜对高价反应迟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Citigroup predicts that gold prices could potentially reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027 under a specific bullish scenario driven by global wealth reallocation, although the base case suggests a decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 [1][5][7]. Group 1: Price Predictions - In a bullish scenario with a 30% probability, gold prices may hit $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, driven by significant global wealth reallocation [5][6]. - The base case scenario, which has a 50% probability, anticipates gold prices to decline to $3,650 per ounce by 2026 due to an improving U.S. economic environment [7][8]. - A bearish scenario with a 20% probability suggests that gold prices could fall to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 or 2027 if geopolitical and economic concerns ease significantly [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. market has been the primary driver of recent gold price increases, with U.S. gold ETF net inflows accounting for 60.9% of global totals in 2025 [13][17]. - The current physical gold market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, estimated to exceed 1,000 tons annually, indicating that new buying demand far exceeds the supply from mining and recycling [17]. - The report highlights that gold currently represents only about 0.1% of global household wealth, suggesting that even a slight increase in allocation could require a substantial amount of gold, potentially leading to price surges [9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The report indicates that the investment demand, particularly from U.S. investors, is a key factor in the recent surge in gold prices, with net investment demand running at an annualized rate exceeding $350 billion [13]. - The valuation of gold is currently considered "very expensive," with multiple indicators reaching 50-year highs, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [10][14]. - The proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has risen to nearly 35%, the highest level since the mid-1990s, reflecting increased central bank interest in gold as a reserve asset [15].