当地时间11月27日，韩国央行召开金融货币委员会会议，决定将基准利率继续维持在2.5%不变。 值得一提的是，自去年10月韩国央行下调基准利率起，便转向了宽松的货币政策，11月再度再度降息。 就韩国经济来说，尽管建筑投资低迷，但增长继续呈现改善趋势，这得益于消费的持续复苏和出口的持续增长。 此外，韩元兑美元下跌的部分原因是居民的海外证券投资，以及外国投资者的国内股市净抛售。 展望未来，国内需求预计将继续在消费的带动下保持复苏态势。尽管出口增长预期会有所放缓，但由于半导体行业的强劲表现以及韩美协议的达成，出口增 长仍有可能保持在高于预期的水平。 韩国央行预计，2025年GDP增长1.0%，2026年GDP增长1.8%，2027年GDP增长1.9%。 而后，又因为内需疲软以及美国关税的影响，韩国央行今年2月、5月又经历了两次降息。但下半年以来，韩国央行在7月、8月、10月、11月连续四次冻结基 准利率。 Kiwoom Securities Co.分析师Ahn Yea-ha表示指出，鉴于明年经济增长预计在1.8%左右，我认为降息仍然是一个选项，我预计终端利率大约在2.25%， 就目前而言，韩国央行似乎更加侧重金融稳定 ...

2025.11. 14 本文字数：1926，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 在焦急等待近半个月后，韩国与美国终于就关税协定细则的说明书"虽迟但到"。 其实，在10月29日韩国庆州李在明与来访的美国总统特朗普举行会谈后，双方就贸易协议的具体条款达成一致。但是原定数日内发布关于关税与安保协 商成果的《联合情况说明书》迟迟未公布，韩国产业界普遍担心再生变数。如今，随着说明书的公之于众，韩国产业界松了口气。 据央视新闻报道，韩国总统李在明11月14日宣布， 韩国和美国就确定关税及安保协商达成一致。此外，韩国还将与美国在造船、人工智能和核工业方 面"建立新的伙伴关系"。 韩国产业界曾焦急等待 韩国承诺的3500亿美元对美投资计划分"两步走"（来源：新华社资料图） 7月30日，特朗普在社交媒体上称与韩国达成贸易协议，在韩方承诺向美国投资3500亿美元，且同意采购价值1000亿美元的能源产品后，美国对韩征收 的关税将从此前的25%降低至15%。但彼时，协议的细则，尤其是何时生效等细节，并未同时公布，韩国产业界陷入了漫长的等待中。 在韩国在一众产业中，韩国车企最为关注协议的走向。韩国汽车工业合作协会编制的数据 ...

在焦急等待近半个月后，韩国与美国终于就关税协定细则的说明书"虽迟但到"。 据央视新闻报道，韩国总统李在明11月14日宣布，韩国和美国就确定关税及安保协商达成一致。此外， 韩国还将与美国在造船、人工智能和核工业方面"建立新的伙伴关系"。 仅在今年第三季度，现代汽车和起亚汽车集团的数据显示，关税支出就分别达到1.82万亿韩元（约合 12.4亿美元）和1.23万亿韩元。受此影响，现代汽车营业利润同比下降29.2%，起亚汽车则同比大跌 49.2%。因此，韩国产业界认为，尽早确定15%关税税率的生效日期，将直接影响车企未来数月乃至全 年的盈利表现。 根据韩国产业通商资源部长官金 正宽本月4日在国务会议上表示，韩国政府正推动将关税削减追溯 至"提交对美投资基金相关法案的当月1日"生效，也就是11月1日。11月1日后已缴纳的超额关税将予以 退还。 此外，协议细节还显示，韩国承诺的3500亿美元对美投资计划分"两步走"，其中的2000亿美元为现金投 资，类似于日本的安排，每年投资上限为200亿美元，投资承诺将在2029年1月前最终敲定。剩余1500亿 美元将用于造船项目。14日，李在明还表示，韩美商定今后持续优化相关制度，争 ...

Group 1 - South Korea and the United States have reached an agreement on tariff and security negotiations, with South Korea's President Lee Jae-myung announcing the details on November 14 [1] - The agreement includes a commitment from South Korea to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of energy products, leading to a reduction of tariffs from 25% to 15% [2][3] - The South Korean automotive industry is particularly affected, with exports of auto parts to the U.S. projected to reach $8.22 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.5% of total auto parts exports [2] Group 2 - In the third quarter of this year, Hyundai and Kia reported significant tariff expenses, with Hyundai's reaching approximately $12.4 billion and Kia's at around $1.23 billion, leading to a decline in operating profits of 29.2% and 49.2% respectively [3] - The South Korean government is pushing for the tariff reduction to be retroactive to November 1, with excess tariffs paid after this date to be refunded [3] - The investment plan includes $200 billion in cash investments and $150 billion for shipbuilding projects, with a commitment to optimize related systems for both U.S. commercial and military vessels to be built in South Korea [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Korea reported a GDP growth of 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth since early 2024 [4] - The IMF has downgraded South Korea's economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 0.9%, citing trade friction and weak domestic demand as major challenges [4][5] - Citibank predicts that South Korea's GDP growth could reach 2.2% by 2026, driven by strong semiconductor exports and weak energy prices, suggesting a stable economic outlook [5]

Group 1 - The recent agreement between South Korea and the United States on tariff and security negotiations has alleviated concerns in the South Korean industry, which was anxious about potential changes in trade conditions [1][3] - South Korea has committed to investing $350 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $100 billion worth of energy products, leading to a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% [3][4] - The automotive sector in South Korea is particularly affected, with exports of auto parts to the U.S. projected to reach $8.22 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.5% of total auto parts exports [3][4] Group 2 - In the third quarter of this year, Hyundai and Kia reported significant tariff expenses, with Hyundai's reaching approximately $12.4 billion and Kia's at about $1.23 billion, resulting in a year-on-year profit decline of 29.2% and 49.2%, respectively [4] - The South Korean government is pushing for the new 15% tariff rate to take effect retroactively from November 1, which would allow for refunds on excess tariffs paid [4][5] - The investment plan includes $200 billion in cash investments, with a cap of $20 billion per year, and an additional $150 billion allocated for shipbuilding projects [5] Group 3 - The South Korean economy is projected to grow at a rate of around 1% this year, influenced by strong semiconductor exports, despite the negative impact of U.S. tariffs [6][7] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for South Korea from 2% to 0.9% due to trade tensions and weak domestic demand [6][7] - Citibank has a more optimistic outlook, predicting that South Korea's GDP growth could reach 2.2% by 2026, driven by strong semiconductor exports and declining energy prices [7]

经历一轮短暂回调后黄金正在迅速收回失地，目前金价已突破4200美元的关口。 尽管金价已从近期低点反弹约300美元，但一个关键动量指标——相对强弱指数（RSI）显示其尚未进入严重超买区域，暗示上涨动能或仍未耗 尽。 据追风交易台消息，花旗集团于11月10日发布的最新黄金展望报告更是预测，金价在特定情景下存在冲击6000美元的可能。 其分析师表示，在概率为30%的牛市情景下，金价可能在2027年底达到6000美元/盎司。这一预测基于大规模的全球财富重新配置，而体量相对较 小的实物黄金市场将无法承接，只能通过价格飙升来实现平衡。 花旗认为，美国投资者是这轮黄金上涨的主力军。数据显示，2025年迄今，美国市场的黄金ETF净流入占全球总量的60.9%。 不过，这份报告的核心观点却更为审慎。花旗将金价在2026年"步履蹒跚地走低"作为其基准情景，并赋予了50%的最高概率。该预测认为，随着 美国经济环境改善，金价届时将回落至3650美元/盎司。 这一情景的核心驱动力在于全球范围内的财富重新配置。报告指出，实物黄金市场规模过小，难以吸收大规模的财富转移。 花旗通过具体测算指出： "显然，财富转移无法被（供应）满足，价格需要发 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The continuous decline in oil prices may lead to a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 3.75%, reflecting the complex interplay between macroeconomic indicators [1] Group 2 - Oil price decline: International oil prices have been on a downward trend, with WTI crude oil prices falling from approximately $80 per barrel in January to below $58, nearing levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Factors influencing oil prices: The drop in oil prices is primarily driven by an oversupply of global crude oil and widespread concerns about slowing global economic growth [2] Group 3 - Impact of oil prices on bond yields: Lower energy costs typically ease inflationary pressures, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. A sustained decrease in inflation could enhance expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [4] - Recent bond market response: Since October, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by approximately 18 basis points, reflecting both expectations for future rate cuts and concerns about the stability of parts of the U.S. banking system [4] Group 4 - Unusual market phenomenon: A rare occurrence of simultaneous increases in both U.S. stock and bond prices suggests that investors anticipate a "Goldilocks" scenario, where economic growth slows enough to curb inflation without triggering a recession [5] Group 5 - Market focus: The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting and the release of the September core CPI data are critical, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, consistent with August [6] Group 6 - Analyst perspective on bond market: Even with ongoing economic growth, there remains potential for further increases in the bond market. Predictions indicate that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could drop to the 3.60%-3.70% range, levels briefly reached last year [7] Group 7 - Dual impact of falling oil prices: The decline in oil prices has a dual effect on the economy; it lowers energy costs, enhancing consumer purchasing power and stimulating demand, while also indicating a potential cooling of global economic activity [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the cautious optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which have led to historical highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, but warns of limited short-term upside for risk assets [1][2] - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that while the market is currently in an ideal "Goldilocks" state, investors should remain vigilant about macroeconomic risks that could lead to a market pullback [2][3] - The report anticipates a potential 5-10% correction in the S&P 500, with a target range of 5800-6000 points, should economic weakness signals become pronounced [1][2] Group 2 - Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with recent CPI and PPI data aligning with forecasts, indicating upward pressure on prices due to tariffs [3] - Despite the inflation concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains its prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by risk management considerations amid soft employment data [3] - The report emphasizes that the decision to maintain current policy rates will depend heavily on upcoming inflation and employment data [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly with the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, which has increased market optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine [4] - However, Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about the sustainability of any peace agreement, citing unchanged fundamental goals from Russia regarding Ukraine's NATO and EU aspirations [4] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley recommends a cautious cross-asset strategy, advising a reduction in risk assets and a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar [5] - The firm favors defensive sectors over cyclical ones in the stock market and sees European equities as undervalued compared to U.S. stocks [5] - In the fixed income space, emerging market rates are viewed as more attractive, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, while the firm suggests shorting copper as part of a hedging strategy [5]