Group 1 - Global asset performance shows significant divergence, with developed markets in Europe rising while emerging markets in Asia decline [1] - The UK FTSE 100 and Vietnam Index have the highest gains, while A-shares experience a slight downturn, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 0.2% [1] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with COMEX silver increasing by 9.4% for the week and over 120% year-to-date, while oil prices continue to decline [1] Group 2 - The yield curves for both Chinese and US bonds exhibit a "bull steepening" characteristic, indicating a potential shift in interest rate expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve has moved its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 to March and July, with a projected cut of 25 basis points [1] - The US dollar index has risen by 0.3%, while the euro and yen have depreciated against the dollar, and the British pound and Chinese yuan have appreciated [1] Group 3 - Emerging markets are generally weak, with A-shares showing a slight decline, particularly in the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50, leading to a bearish outlook on A-shares [2]

Group 1: Cross-Asset Overview - The report indicates a general pullback in equity markets, with safe-haven assets outperforming risk assets. The Hong Kong stock market led declines in developed markets, while South Korea's stock market led declines in emerging markets. Commodity prices showed increased divergence, with oil prices rebounding but copper prices plummeting over 20% due to policy impacts. The overall bond market in China showed signs of recovery, while the US dollar strengthened against other currencies [7][20][57]. Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - The global equity market experienced a widespread pullback, with developed and emerging markets declining simultaneously. In developed markets, major US indices fell over 2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped 4.2%. In emerging markets, South Korea's KOSDAQ fell 4.2%, driven by concerns over tax reforms proposed by the government, which included raising capital gains tax thresholds and increasing corporate tax rates [20][21][25]. Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10Y-2Y yield spread narrowed, indicating a stable bond market environment. In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve also moving downward but the 10Y-2Y spread widening. The market anticipates an 80.3% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data [38][39]. Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity prices shifted from rising to falling, with copper prices experiencing a significant drop of 23.3%. The report highlights that oil and gold prices increased, while other commodities faced declines. The US dollar index rose by 1% during the week, supported by strong GDP growth and employment data from the US, leading to a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies [57][58][62].