Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

二、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：新年行情港股大涨，金银价格快速下跌 当周，发达市场股指涨跌互现、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，恒生指数、英国富时 100、德国DAX分别上涨2.0%、0.8%、0.7%，纳指、道琼斯工业平均、标普500分别下跌1.5%、1.3%、 1.0%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、胡志明指数、开罗CASE30分别上涨4.4%、3.2%、1.4%，南非富 时指数、巴西IBOVESPA指数分别下跌1.1%、0.2%。 文 | 赵伟、董易、王胜、陈达飞、 李欣越、 赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越、董易 报告正文 当周，美国标普500行业多数下跌。能源、公用事业、工业分别上涨3.3%、0.9%、0.5%，可选消费、信 息技术、金融分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；欧元区行业多数上涨，科技、公用事业、能源分别上涨4.3%、 2.6%、2.0%，仅医疗保健下跌0.2%。 当周，恒生指数悉数上涨，行业方面涨跌互现。恒生科技、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数分别上涨 4.3%、2.0%、2.8%。行业方面，能源、资讯科技、原材料分别上涨4.2%、3.8%、3.7%，必需性消费 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that COMEX silver has reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce [2][30][35] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains during the Christmas trading period [2][3][11] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion and total revenues at $4.8 trillion [48][80] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven primarily by strong consumer spending [61][80] - The article notes that the unemployment claims data indicates stability in the U.S. economy, with initial claims at 214,000 and continuing claims at 1.923 million, both figures reflecting market expectations [64][65] Group 3 - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's recent actions, indicating that a rate cut in January remains likely, despite strong GDP data, as the market's expectations for rate changes have not significantly shifted [57][61] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's recent expansion of its balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) marks a new phase in liquidity management, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE) [76][78] - The article concludes that the current economic conditions do not warrant a return to QE, as the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than balance sheet expansion [79]

Group 1 - The core view of the report highlights that the US stock market is experiencing a "Christmas rally," with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, supported by a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, which exceeded expectations [2][9] - The report indicates that the year-end liquidity and holiday consumption season are likely to continue supporting market sentiment, although trading may become quieter after the Christmas holiday [2][9] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have surged significantly this year, with gold up over 70% and silver up over 170%, driven by risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [2][9] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the US Q3 GDP annualized growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 3.8% and market expectations of 3.3% [3][10] - The report mentions a decrease in initial jobless claims, with the number falling to 214,000 from the previous 224,000 [3][10] - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that NYMEX platinum had the highest increase at 24.70%, followed by COMEX silver at 18.04% and COMEX gold at 4.41% [31][33] Group 3 - In the equity market, the Shenzhen Composite Index had the largest increase at 3.53%, while the UK FTSE 100 saw a decline of 0.27% [36][42] - The report highlights that the materials sector in the US stock market had the highest increase at 3.20%, while the consumer staples sector experienced the largest decline at -0.11% [42] - The report indicates that the foreign exchange market saw the Korean won appreciate by 1.83% against the RMB, while the US dollar depreciated by 0.46% [43][44] Group 4 - The report updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone M3 money supply year-on-year [60][67] - It mentions an increase in the UK industrial trends orders index, indicating positive sentiment in the manufacturing sector [69] - The report states that Japan's PMI remains stable, reflecting consistent economic conditions [71]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in COMEX silver prices, reaching a historical high, and analyzes the factors contributing to this increase [2] Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX silver has recently hit a record high, indicating strong demand and market interest [2] - The price of silver has shown significant volatility, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Increased industrial demand and investment in precious metals are key drivers behind the rising silver prices [2] - Global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like silver [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upward trend in silver prices may continue if current economic conditions persist [2] - The potential for further price increases is linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [2]

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]

Group 1 - Global asset performance shows significant divergence, with developed markets in Europe rising while emerging markets in Asia decline [1] - The UK FTSE 100 and Vietnam Index have the highest gains, while A-shares experience a slight downturn, with the Wind All A Index dropping by 0.2% [1] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with COMEX silver increasing by 9.4% for the week and over 120% year-to-date, while oil prices continue to decline [1] Group 2 - The yield curves for both Chinese and US bonds exhibit a "bull steepening" characteristic, indicating a potential shift in interest rate expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve has moved its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 to March and July, with a projected cut of 25 basis points [1] - The US dollar index has risen by 0.3%, while the euro and yen have depreciated against the dollar, and the British pound and Chinese yuan have appreciated [1] Group 3 - Emerging markets are generally weak, with A-shares showing a slight decline, particularly in the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50, leading to a bearish outlook on A-shares [2]

Group 1: Major Economic Events - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the European Central Bank maintained rates unchanged [1] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 50,000 [58] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [60] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while the COMEX silver price surged significantly [1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% to 98.71, with most currencies depreciating against the dollar, including the Japanese yen which fell by 1.2% [25] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.6% to $56.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.2% to $4,354.0 per ounce [36][42] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index showed mixed performance across sectors, with consumer discretionary, materials, and healthcare sectors rising by 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively, while energy and real estate sectors fell by 2.9% and 1.4% [5] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a decline across most sectors, with technology and consumer discretionary sectors dropping by 2.8% and 3.0% respectively [9] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by 3.0 basis points to 4.16%, while yields in other developed markets showed mixed trends [15] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 175.5 basis points to 30.32% [20]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic developments, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][64][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data Asset Classes - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [2] - Major stock indices in developed markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% [3] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to 56.5 USD per barrel, while COMEX gold increased by 1.2% to 4,354.0 USD per ounce [2][45] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing expectations [74] - The CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, significantly lower than expected, with core CPI at 2.6% [76] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, while the European Central Bank maintained its rates [2][64] Commodity Prices - Most commodity prices saw increases, with WTI crude oil down 1.6% and COMEX silver up 9.4% [45][52] - The prices of various metals, including LME copper and aluminum, also increased [52]

Key Points - The article discusses the recent economic events, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data [2][70][76] - The Japanese government has approved a significant economic stimulus package amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately $118 billion), marking a 31% increase from the previous year's budget [64] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, which was above market expectations [74] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, significantly below market expectations, influenced by data quality issues due to the government shutdown [76] Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly, while COMEX silver saw a significant increase [3] - Developed market indices showed mixed performance, with the UK FTSE 100 and France's CAC40 rising by 2.6% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index fell by 2.6% and 1.1% [3] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices increased by 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.16% [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 4.6% [74] - The labor force participation rate was reported at 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [74] Group 3: Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%, both significantly lower than market expectations [76] - The data collection for CPI was affected by the government shutdown, leading to potential distortions in the reported figures [76]