Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

跨 资产比较： 商品表现强于股债。上周，（ 1 ）资产表现： 大宗商品整体上行，贵金属与原油领涨。权益市场震荡调整。美股三大股指回调； A 股逆势上 涨，科创板表现亮眼。中债市场整体承压，三大债指均小幅下行。美元指数上涨 0.6% ，美元兑日元走强 1.0% 。 （ 2 ）相关性： 1 年滚动相关系数显 示，与上上周相比， A 股与中债国债间负相关、与港股间正相关的程度均显著下降。 （ 3 ）相对价值： A 股、美股相对 10Y 国债的风险溢价均边际下降； A 股相对商品的风险溢价边际上升。金油比、金铜比、金银比均边际下降。 权益：全球权益指数回调， A 股上涨且科创亮眼。 上周， MSCI 全球指数结束连续三周的上涨趋势，下跌 0.5% 。从区域表现看，新兴市场跌幅高于发 达，亚洲市场跌幅高于欧洲和北美。（ 1 ）发达市场中，美国三大股指均小幅下跌；港股恒指与恒科均跌逾 1.5% 。相较之下，欧股普遍走强， STOXX50 （ +0.8% ）、富时 100 （ +0.7% ）及德国 DAX （ +0.4% ）均录得正收益，日经 225 亦上涨 0.7% 。（ 2 ）新兴市场中， A 股表现亮眼，科创 50 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening U.S. employment data, which has led to an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][54][62] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4% during the week [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 13.0 basis points to 4.1%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.74 [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [62][73] - The ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, also below the expected 68,000 [62] - Job openings in July were reported at 7.181 million, lower than the expected 7.382 million, indicating a weakening demand in the labor market [62] Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of various sectors, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors showing increases of 5.1%, 1.6%, and 0.3% respectively in the S&P 500 [7] - In the Hang Seng Index, healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors rose by 7.1%, 6.6%, and 3.6% respectively [10] - Conversely, energy, financials, and utilities sectors in the S&P 500 saw declines of 3.5%, 1.7%, and 1.1% respectively [7] Group 4 - The article highlights that the market is now shifting from rate cut expectations to recession trading due to the disappointing employment data [72] - The Federal Reserve's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in September has increased following the weak employment figures [54][62] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming CPI data and the potential for further adjustments in employment figures [54][62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening U.S. employment data, which has led to an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][54][62] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4% during the week [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 13.0 basis points to 4.1%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.74 [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [62][73] - The ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, also below the expected 68,000 [62] - Job openings in July were reported at 7.181 million, lower than the expected 7.382 million, indicating a weakening demand in the labor market [62] Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of various sectors, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors showing increases of 5.1%, 1.6%, and 0.3% respectively, while energy, financials, and utilities sectors declined [7][10] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors rose by 7.1%, 6.6%, and 3.6% respectively, while telecommunications and consumer staples fell by 3.7% and 0.4% [10] Group 4 - The article highlights that the market is shifting from rate cut expectations to recession trading due to the disappointing employment data [71][73] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance is reinforced by the recent employment figures, with expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September increasing [54][58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak US employment data and dovish statements from Fed officials provide support for precious metal prices at high levels. The labor market in the US has shown signs of weakening, with the ADP employment number in August lower than expected and the initial jobless claims in the week ending August 30th higher than expected [2]. - New Fed Governor Milan's monetary policy views will be significantly influenced by Trump. New York Fed President Williams believes that the risks in the employment market are rising, and it will be appropriate to cut interest rates over time [3]. - The non - farm payrolls data to be released tonight is expected to show a slight increase above the expected 75,000. Precious metal prices will wait for further economic data and monetary policy statements, maintaining a high - level sideways movement in the short term. In the interest - rate cut cycle, gold and silver prices will rise significantly. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 801 - 836 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 9526 - 10300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3597.10 per ounce, down 0.27%; Shanghai gold (Au(T + D)) closed at 809 yuan/gram, down 0.12%. The price of London gold was $3546.30 per ounce, down 0.28%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 981.97 tons, a decline of 0.23% [2][4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver closed at $41.25 per ounce, down 0.40%; Shanghai silver (Ag(T + D)) closed at 9770 yuan/kilogram, down 0.10%. The price of London silver was $40.97 per ounce, up 0.26%. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons, a decline of 0.33% [2][4]. - **Other Related Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.17%, and the US dollar index was 98.29. The major stock indices in the US and other countries generally rose, with the Dow Jones index up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq index up 0.98% [2][4]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold was $3602.40 per ounce, down 0.48% from the previous day; the trading volume was 230,000 lots, up 6.59%; the open interest was 443,800 lots, up 1.19%. The inventory remained unchanged at 1212 tons. The closing price of SHFE gold was 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23%; the trading volume was 475,000 lots, up 13.86%; the open interest was 439,900 lots, down 0.46%. The inventory increased by 7.46% to 43.25 tons [6]. - **Silver**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX silver was $41.32 per ounce, down 1.18% from the previous day; the open interest was 158,600 lots, up 0.10%. The inventory increased by 0.26% to 16093 tons. The closing price of SHFE silver was 9773 yuan/kilogram, down 0.48%; the trading volume was 1,537,400 lots, up 36.19%; the open interest was 838,100 lots, down 1.51%. The inventory increased by 2.68% to 1259.95 tons [6]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Gold**: The SHFE - COMEX spread was - 7.43 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 3.21 yuan/gram on September 4, 2025 [55]. - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 359.92 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 441.51 yuan/kilogram on September 4, 2025 [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strong performance of US economic data released last night put short - term pressure on gold and silver prices, but Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook further weakened the Fed's independence, and it is certain that the Fed will shift to a dovish stance in its medium - term monetary policy [2][3]. - The US economic data such as durable goods orders, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, and consumer confidence index were better than expected, causing a short - term decline in gold and silver prices after the durable goods orders data was released [2]. - Trump's removal of Cook may lead to a new dovish - leaning理事 entering the FOMC, driving the Fed to implement further interest rate cuts. Based on the current weak US employment data and moderately rising consumer price index, there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year [3]. - Silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold prices under the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and the main Shanghai silver contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Prices - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.21% to 781.86 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 0.30% to 9326.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.24% to 3441.10 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 98.24 [2]. - Other price data such as Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, SLV silver ETF holdings, etc. are also presented in the report [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - The US July durable goods orders had a month - on - month value of - 2.8%, higher than the expected - 4% and the previous value of - 9.4%. The US August Richmond Fed manufacturing index was - 7, higher than the expected - 11 and the previous value of - 20. The US August Conference Board consumer confidence index was 97.4, higher than the expected 96.2 [2]. 3.3 Policy Impact - Trump's removal of Fed Governor Cook due to suspected financial crimes has a major impact on the Fed's monetary policy independence. If Cook's position is ultimately removed, new dovish - leaning理事 will enter the FOMC, potentially leading to further interest rate cuts [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Based on the historical price movements of precious metals, gold prices benefit from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver prices are more driven by the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is believed that there is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices will rise more than gold prices, with the gold - silver ratio further downward - corrected. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [3]. 3.5 Data Charts - The report includes a large number of data charts showing the relationship between precious metal prices, trading volumes, open interests, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of precious metals [6][11][18][23][24][31][34][41][43][50][55][56][58]

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold futures (Au) dropped 0.13% to 775.04 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 9225.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to 3378.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.19% to 38.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.34%, and the US dollar index was at 98.11 [1]. - In the detailed data, Au(T + D) closed at 774.80 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day; Ag(T + D) closed at 9227.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.42%. London gold was at 3332.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.09%, and London silver was at 37.73 dollars/ounce, down 1.53% [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - There is an expectation of further easing of overseas geopolitical risks, which has a negative impact on gold prices. After the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, it was reported that Ukraine will buy weapons worth hundreds of billions of dollars from the US, and Trump will arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, leading to a phased release of overseas geopolitical risks [1]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on the evening of August 22, Beijing time. The impact of imported inflation in the US is gradually emerging, and the Trump administration is putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates due to US debt interest payments. Powell's speech will significantly affect the prices of gold and silver. There is a driving force for the expectation of an interest - rate cut to further increase in the fourth quarter when the new Fed chairperson will be announced [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Currently, in the precious metals strategy, it is recommended to wait for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to enter long positions in silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold futures is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver futures is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 4: Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data is provided, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and historical quantiles for different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc. For example, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3381.70 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 11.55 million lots, down 28.99% from the previous period [5]. - The report also presents various charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [10][19][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations, with the year - on - year PPI at 3.3%, the month - on - month PPI at 0.9%, and the month - on - month import price index at 0.4%. Fed officials have different views on inflation, and the Trump administration's selection of the new Fed chair has influenced their statements [2]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium on August 22. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting with a probability of 92.1%, and also prices in another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed chair, which may further boost the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to wait for Powell's statement. If it is dovish, consider going long on gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On August 18, Shanghai Gold fell 0.01% to 775.08 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.10% to 9217.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.04% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.13% to 38.02 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index was 97.85 [2]. - For other market data on August 18, such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc., specific closing prices, changes, and percentage changes are provided [4]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on August 15, COMEX Gold's closing price, trading volume, open interest, and inventory had different changes compared to the previous day, with the closing price down 0.02%, trading volume down 28.99%, open interest down 0.78%, and inventory down 0.02%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators like LBMA Gold, SHFE Gold, and Au(T + D) are also presented [6]. - For silver on August 15, COMEX Silver's closing price, open interest, and inventory had changes, with the closing price down 0.04%, open interest down 3.00%, and inventory up 0.11%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators like LBMA Silver, SHFE Silver, and Ag(T + D) are also provided [6]. 3.3 Charts and Their Information - Multiple charts show the relationships between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure. For example, there are charts of COMEX Gold price vs. the US dollar index, COMEX Gold price vs. real interest rates, etc. [11][12] - There are also charts showing the near - far month structures of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, and related spreads, as well as similar charts for silver [20][21][37][38] - Charts about the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX Gold and Silver and their prices are presented [40] - Charts of the total holdings of Gold ETFs and Silver ETFs are provided [47] - Charts of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver, including their MA5 and seasonal patterns, are shown [50][51][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the US July CPI data last night is generally favorable for the Fed to implement further easing policies. With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) fell 0.11% to 776.28 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.39% to 9205.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.11% to 3402.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.11% to 37.96 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.05 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal varieties and related indicators are presented in detailed tables, including Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan or - 0.35% from the previous trading day [5]. US CPI Data Analysis - The US July CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%. The core CPI year - on - year value was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.2% [2]. - The lower - than - expected overall CPI in July was due to the decline in oil prices, and the higher - than - expected core CPI was due to the "sudden" increase in used - car inflation compared to the previous month, along with the impact of imported inflation on household prices. In terms of overall CPI, the energy - related CPI year - on - year value decreased by 1.6%, and the month - on - month value decreased by 1.1%, mainly driven by the decline in oil prices. In terms of core inflation, the housing inflation with a high proportion continued to decline slowly, and the used - car price index year - on - year value in July was 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, and the month - on - month value rose from - 0.7% in June to + 0.5%, which was the main contributor to the higher - than - expected core CPI year - on - year value [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [4]. Data Graphs and Analysis - Multiple graphs are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, the price and volume relationship of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and silver, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds, the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [12][22][41].