Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing a positive trend with an increase in the logistics business volume and an improvement in the overall economic climate, as indicated by the logistics prosperity index reaching 50.8% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Industry Performance - The logistics prosperity index for June stands at 50.8%, indicating expansion, with the total business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months since 2025 [1] - The central and western regions of China have business volume indices that exceed the national average [1] Sector Analysis - Various sectors including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal express services are all in the expansion zone, with the postal express and air transport indices at 69.3% and 52% respectively, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh produce [3] - The logistics demand is particularly strong in the e-commerce sector, with improvements in service timeliness and fulfillment rates supporting growth in logistics for fresh agricultural products [5] Seasonal Trends - June's logistics development shows seasonal characteristics, with increased coal transport demand due to summer peaks, and a rise in orders for home appliances driven by trade-in programs [7] - The demand for rail transport, road transport, and e-commerce express services continues to recover [7] Investment Insights - Logistics infrastructure investment remains stable, with the fixed asset investment completion index rising to 54.5% in June, marking a continuous monthly increase since February [10] - Key projects in transportation logistics hubs are progressing smoothly, with fixed asset investment indices for water transport, air transport, and postal express services increasing by 0.5, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points respectively [10] Future Outlook - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for four consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the logistics sector [11] - However, early onset of flood season and extreme weather conditions may pose challenges to efficient logistics operations, necessitating robust transport capacity and emergency plans [11]

Core Insights - The overall logistics demand in China shows a steady but slowing growth, with a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1][2] - The logistics supply remains robust, with the logistics industry revenue reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [4][5] Logistics Demand Trends - In May, the logistics demand growth rate decreased to 5.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating a stabilization in logistics demand recovery [1][2] - Industrial product logistics maintained a steady growth of 5.6% year-on-year in the first five months, with May's growth at 5.5% [2][3] - The logistics for units and residents' goods saw a significant increase, with a total growth of 6.4% in the first five months and 8.3% in May [3] Structural Optimization - The logistics structure is improving, driven by industrial upgrades and supportive policies, with equipment manufacturing logistics demand leading the growth [2][5] - New consumption trends such as live streaming sales and instant retail are maturing, contributing to the acceleration of logistics demand in May [3] Logistics Supply Dynamics - The logistics supply continues to expand, with a logistics industry prosperity index of 50.6% in May, indicating ongoing expansion despite a slight decrease [4][5] - Efficient transportation methods are on the rise, with air cargo transport volume increasing by 16.6% year-on-year in May [4] Future Outlook - The logistics demand is expected to remain stable, supported by policies promoting equipment updates and trade-in programs, although challenges in international logistics and price competition may persist [5] - The logistics prosperity index's business activity expectation remains above 55%, indicating positive market expectations in sectors like intermodal transport and low-altitude economy [5]