编者荐语： 目前9月已接近尾声，整体震荡4周。相较5月份的震荡行情，已经接近当时的5周震荡时间。 短期展望节前，从过去10年两融数据看，只有去年节前两融是增加的，其他时间即使是2014年长假前也是减少两融。所以大概率节前还是缩量震荡为主。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 记得 8 月底的时候，我们对 9 月的整体判断是 "重心上移、斜率放缓、偏震荡的过程。 " 一方面，从过往大数据看，如果节前震荡调整，节后往往有表现。 另外，央行三季度货币政策例会中提到 " 保持流动性充裕 引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度 "、" 用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利 和股票回购增持再贷款 维护资本市场稳定"。政策层面的呵护意图依然明显。 方向上，短期海外算力成交金额占比略大，同时叠加从历史经验看，前三季度连续上涨的品种，四季度往往表现一般，所以下阶段科技行 情分化概率较大，但科技在四季度的催化依然有，例如降息、特斯拉机器人等。所以 总体偏向于四季度，科技、金融、周期会有望轮动表 现。 -------------------- 免责声明：本文内容为作者个人观点，本站只提供参考并不构成任何投资及应用建议。如需转载 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices showing substantial increases, driven by policy support and improved investor confidence [2][3][8]. Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen approximately 39%, the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 61.7%, and the ChiNext Index has surged by about 102% since the "924" market [2][3][4]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached approximately 104 trillion yuan, an increase of about 36 trillion yuan over the past year [4][5]. Policy Impact - A series of financial policies announced by the central government aimed at supporting economic growth have been pivotal in boosting market confidence [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to enhance capital market support and facilitate the entry of long-term funds [3][8]. Sector Performance - All 30 sectors tracked by Citic have seen gains, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Computer, Media, and Machinery, which have risen approximately 120%, 108%, 99%, 88%, and 76% respectively [5][6]. - Conversely, sectors such as Coal, Oil & Gas, and Utilities have shown minimal growth, with increases ranging from 6% to 24% [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Over 5200 stocks have risen since the "924" market, with 3089 stocks increasing by more than 50% and 424 stocks rising over 200% [5][6]. - The top three performing stocks have seen increases exceeding 1000%, with the highest being 1710% [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market has further potential, despite recent adjustments due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes [8][9]. - The market is expected to undergo structural shifts, with a potential focus on cyclical sectors and technology branches in the upcoming quarters [9].