近期，外资纷纷看好中国、纷纷加仓，居民存款搬家、跑步进场，基金销售再现火爆，券商开户大幅增长，00后也开始现身股海。 去年924之前市场一片悲歌之中，笔者鲜明提出"信心牛"和"东升西落"， 预判未来将启动新一轮大牛市，引发广泛关注和讨论。时隔一年，牛市气贯长 虹，在争议中迭创新高。这是继2014年"5000点不是梦"之后，再次从宏观层面成功预测牛市。 股市总是在绝望中重生，在争议中上涨，在狂欢中崩盘。 此牛市十年一遇，有三大驱动力、三大使命和两大前景。 一、此轮牛市将是十年一遇，堪称史诗级别 自2000年以来，我们经历了三轮量级较大的牛市，带来了史诗级的机遇，分别是：2004-2007年由于经济繁荣带来的超级"周期牛"，2014-2015年由于改革 转型预期和流动性充裕带来的超级"改革牛"，以及2024年924以来由于政策放松大幅超预期、流动性充裕和新一轮科技革命带来的超级"信心牛"。 从过去三轮大牛市来看，中国量级较大的牛市大约十年一轮，分别启动于2004、2014、2024年，与经济周期的"朱格拉周期"节奏一致。经济周期主要是三 大周期：50年左右的长周期康德拉耶夫周期、10年左右的中周期朱格拉周期、3年 ...

"科技牛"是资本市场2025年的最佳注脚。股市再上4000点，印证了科技是撬动经济增长的关键变量，资本市场支持创新已成为普遍共识。2025年，政策开 闸，资本市场向优质未盈利创新企业上市广开大门；市场共振，寒武纪一度登顶，超越茅台成为"新王"，股市"喜芯厌酒"让本轮IPO盛宴科技含量满满。创 新药打样、芯片企业排位、AI和机器人抢跑，中国科技公司的估值和预期、中国资本市场的含金量和信心，共同涌向了来之不易的"牛市"。 有何不同 2025年10月29日，A股重返4000点，并围绕着4000点展开了一场激烈的拉锯战。暂别几日后，11月，A股又先后两次突破4000点。 Wind数据显示，A股信息技术板块年内大涨50%，位居行业涨幅榜首位。截至11月20日，科创50指数年内累计涨幅也超过30%，并于10月9日刷新逾四年来 的新高。 经统计，1月2日—11月20日，科创50成分股中，芯原股份、拓荆科技、寒武纪等4股股价累计涨超100%。其中，备受市场关注的寒武纪自8月以来股价与贵 州茅台相互胶着，数次"问鼎"A股股王。 今年9月，证监会主席吴清表示，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4，已明显高于银行、非银金融、房地产行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trend in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, termed as the "confidence bull market," driven by unprecedented macro policies since late September 2024. It analyzes historical bull markets to identify patterns and potential future trends. Summary by Sections Historical Bull Market Analysis - A-shares bull markets require three conditions: policy shift, capital inflow, and low valuations, often starting amid controversy and despair, with subsequent valuation recovery igniting investor enthusiasm [6] - Bull markets typically go through three phases: policy-driven, capital-driven, and fundamental-driven, with initial phases less correlated to economic fundamentals [6] - A-shares exhibit characteristics of short bull markets and long bear markets, with average bull market duration of 17 months compared to 27 months for bear markets [8] - The first half of bull markets is primarily driven by policy, emotion, and capital, averaging 6.3 months with a 59% increase, led by technology, finance, and cyclical sectors [8] - Adjustments occur during bull markets due to various factors, but these adjustments can lead to stronger subsequent performance if sufficiently deep [8] - The second half of bull markets relies on economic fundamentals and corporate profit recovery, often resulting in a "Davis double play" where both valuation and profit growth occur [8] - Bull markets typically end due to high valuations, policy shifts, lack of new capital inflow, or economic recovery failures, often culminating in panic selling [8] Signals of Bull Market End - Key signals indicating the end of a bull market include: 1. Overvaluation, where high market valuations cannot be supported by corporate earnings [10] 2. Policy shifts that historically have marked the end of previous bull markets [13] 3. Absence of new capital inflow, which is crucial for sustaining market growth [15] 4. Economic recovery failures, where declining economic indicators lead to market downturns [15] Future Outlook - The current "confidence bull market" mirrors past bull markets, initiated during economic downturns with policy shifts and low valuations. Continued macro policy easing, interest rate cuts, and support for private sector investment are essential for sustaining this bull market [17] - The article emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of market signals, particularly regarding high valuations and potential policy changes, to avoid pitfalls associated with previous market cycles [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices showing substantial increases, driven by policy support and improved investor confidence [2][3][8]. Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen approximately 39%, the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 61.7%, and the ChiNext Index has surged by about 102% since the "924" market [2][3][4]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares reached approximately 104 trillion yuan, an increase of about 36 trillion yuan over the past year [4][5]. Policy Impact - A series of financial policies announced by the central government aimed at supporting economic growth have been pivotal in boosting market confidence [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to enhance capital market support and facilitate the entry of long-term funds [3][8]. Sector Performance - All 30 sectors tracked by Citic have seen gains, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Computer, Media, and Machinery, which have risen approximately 120%, 108%, 99%, 88%, and 76% respectively [5][6]. - Conversely, sectors such as Coal, Oil & Gas, and Utilities have shown minimal growth, with increases ranging from 6% to 24% [5]. Individual Stock Performance - Over 5200 stocks have risen since the "924" market, with 3089 stocks increasing by more than 50% and 424 stocks rising over 200% [5][6]. - The top three performing stocks have seen increases exceeding 1000%, with the highest being 1710% [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market has further potential, despite recent adjustments due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes [8][9]. - The market is expected to undergo structural shifts, with a potential focus on cyclical sectors and technology branches in the upcoming quarters [9].

Group 1 - The current bull market is characterized as a "confidence bull" driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, marking it as a once-in-a-decade opportunity [4][8][13] - Since September 2024, the bull market has seen substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 45% from its low of 2690, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 79%, indicating a strong market recovery [5][7] - The market capitalization has surged from 70 trillion to 100 trillion, creating a wealth effect of 30 trillion, which is significant for the overall economy [7][8] Group 2 - Three main drivers of the current bull market include continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and ample liquidity, which together create a robust "confidence bull" [8][13] - The policy shift since September 2024 has led to a historic turning point, with measures such as interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and significant infrastructure investments boosting market sentiment [8][11] - The technological revolution, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, is expected to lead the market, reflecting a shift towards new economic drivers [11][14] Group 3 - The bull market is expected to fulfill three historical missions: supporting the development of new productive forces, aiding in major power competition, and repairing household balance sheets [13][15] - The capital market's prosperity is crucial for financing new economy sectors, which are often unable to secure funding through traditional banking systems due to their high-tech and asset-light nature [15][18] - The recovery of household balance sheets is vital, as the stock market's growth can offset the wealth loss from the real estate market, potentially leading to increased consumer spending [15][18] Group 4 - The outlook for the bull market includes the potential for a prolonged "slow bull" phase, which would significantly benefit hard technology development and economic recovery [17][19] - Continuous macroeconomic policy easing is essential for sustaining the bull market, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to support demand [17][19] - The unique characteristics of the A-share market, dominated by retail investors, necessitate careful regulation of leverage to ensure healthy market development [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, emphasizing a "confidence bull market" driven by significant policy easing and a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding China's economic prospects [5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - Recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates a new high for RMB assets, coinciding with a weakening US dollar and strengthening RMB exchange rate [6]. - The "confidence bull market" is characterized by a historical turning point in macroeconomic policy, marked by substantial fiscal measures and ongoing monetary easing [7]. - The concept of "East rises, West falls" suggests that while the US economy may face a downturn, China's economy is poised for recovery and renewed interest from global investors [7]. Group 2: Historical Analysis of A-share Bull Markets - A-share bull markets require three conditions for initiation: policy shift, capital inflow, and low valuations, often emerging from periods of despair [9]. - Bull markets typically progress through three phases: policy-driven, capital-driven, and fundamental-driven, with initial phases less correlated to economic fundamentals [9][10]. - The average duration of A-share bull markets is 17.35 months, significantly shorter than the average bear market duration of 27.12 months [10]. Group 3: Economic Trends for the Second Half of 2025 - The global economic landscape is marked by rising populism and de-globalization, with Chinese companies increasingly seeking opportunities abroad [12]. - The ongoing US-China tariff conflict is expected to persist, with potential escalations in trade tensions [12]. - Key factors for economic recovery include restoring confidence in the private sector, stabilizing the real estate market, and fostering new productive forces [12][13]. Group 4: Strategies for Economic Recovery - The concept of "debt migration" is proposed as a strategy to revitalize the economy, emphasizing the need for government and central bank intervention to alleviate debt burdens on households and businesses [14][15]. - Three main strategies for implementing "debt migration" include aggressive economic policies, establishing a housing reserve bank, and investing in new infrastructure [16][17]. - The focus on new infrastructure aims to support long-term economic growth and technological advancement, positioning China for future economic prosperity [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current bull market in A-shares is characterized as a "confidence bull" driven by a significant shift in macroeconomic policy and an increase in risk appetite, rather than being fundamentally driven by corporate earnings [6][10][13] - A-shares have shown remarkable performance, with major indices reaching new highs and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating a strong market sentiment [2][3] - The increase in retail investor participation is evident, with a notable rise in new account openings and a shift of funds from savings to the stock market [3][4] Group 2 - The current bull market is not fundamentally driven, as economic indicators show signs of slowing down, including declines in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales [4][5] - The bull market is influenced by a liquidity trap and a lack of alternative investment options, leading to a surge in capital inflow into the stock market as investors seek returns [5][9] - The driving forces behind the bull market include a significant increase in risk appetite and a decrease in the risk-free interest rate, which have been mutually reinforcing since the macroeconomic policy shift on September 24, 2023 [9][10][11] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy shift on September 24, 2023, marked a turning point, leading to a series of measures that boosted market confidence, including monetary easing and support for the real estate sector [10][14] - The bull market is expected to have strategic significance for the development of new economies and hard technologies, providing necessary capital market support for these sectors [17] - The current bull market is seen as a potential driver for wealth effect recovery, which could positively impact consumer spending and the real estate market [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese market is experiencing a "confidence bull market" due to significant policy easing, leading to a turnaround in confidence towards Chinese assets and economic prospects [2] - The historical turning point for macroeconomic policy was marked by the introduction of a 10 trillion yuan debt relief plan and continuous easing in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts [2] - The report suggests that a large-scale economic stimulus plan and protection for the private economy could lead to a scenario where the East rises and the West declines, indicating a potential recovery for the Chinese economy [2] Group 2 - The analysis of A-share bull markets reveals that three main conditions are necessary for a bull market to start: policy shift, capital inflow, and low valuations [5] - A-share bull markets typically go through three phases: policy-driven, capital-driven, and fundamental-driven, with the initial phase being less correlated with economic fundamentals [6] - The average duration of A-share bull markets is 17.35 months, significantly shorter than the average duration of bear markets at 27.12 months [6] Group 3 - The report identifies ten key trends for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year, including the need for a new round of large-scale economic stimulus due to downward pressure on the economy [8][9] - The recovery of the private economy, a soft landing for the real estate market, and the development of new productive forces are highlighted as critical points for economic recovery [10] - The fourth technological revolution is expected to create new opportunities in fields such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and commercial aerospace [11] Group 4 - The concept of "debt migration" is proposed as a strategy to restart economic recovery, emphasizing the need for government and central bank intervention to alleviate debt pressure on residents and businesses [15][16] - Three main strategies for implementing "debt migration" include aggressive economic policies, the establishment of a housing reserve bank, and the promotion of new infrastructure projects [17] - The report draws lessons from Japan's economic stagnation and the successful responses of the U.S. during the financial crisis and pandemic, advocating for a focus on repairing the balance sheets of residents and businesses to stimulate consumption and investment [18]

Group 1 - The index is expected to consolidate and gather strength before reaching new highs, with the recent tariff delay being fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3555.22 points [3][14] - The market's optimistic sentiment is currently prevailing, but there is insufficient risk pricing for potential negative surprises regarding tariffs, which may hinder further declines in risk evaluation [3][14] - The market's recent rise is primarily driven by an increase in risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and All A Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][15] Group 2 - Short-term themes are expected to rotate between policy expectations and industrial trends, with a focus on the "anti-involution" sector and real estate, which has seen a 6.1% increase this week due to anticipated policy developments [6][16] - The "anti-involution" sector, particularly in steel, pork, and certain segments of new energy, is highlighted as a potential area of focus due to high policy expectations following recent government meetings [6][16] - The trading of industrial trends is expected to continue, with short-term attention on sectors such as stablecoins, rare earths, nuclear fusion, military industry, deep-sea economy, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][17]

INVITATION 邀请函 亲爱的朋友们： 12 / 20 7 泽平宏观 1 9 : 0 0 中国·深圳 士泽亚 a 始 再出友 2025 | 来预测 好 > 花 * 下 下 战略合作伙伴 我们这个时代，不仅是变化，堪称巨变。 逆全球化潮涌，地缘动荡加剧，特朗普重返白宫，以人工智能和新能源为代表的第四 次科技革命如火如荼，企业千帆竞发出海全球，中国拉开大规模经济刺激计划的序幕，公 共政策全力拼经济，促进房地产止跌回稳，股市"信心牛"一波三折，新质生产力被寄予厚 望 ...... 在这个巨变的时代，光有勤奋还不够，比勤奋更重要的是顺势而为。不要用战术上的 勤奋，掩盖战略上的懒惰。 像马斯克、 黄仁勋 、张一鸣、 雷军、王传福 这些新一代 企业家的领军人物 ，我认为 除了勤奋，更重要的是 抓住了时代的机遇。 打个比方，大家都是跑步，你在正确的方向上跑步，就好像在高铁上跑步一样，自带 200公里时速。200公里时速是什么？就是时代给你的机会。 毫无疑问，这是一个大变革、大动荡、大转型、大有可为 的大时代，百年未有之大变 局，也是百年未有之大机遇。 我们唯一所需要做的就是，看到变化，拥抱趋势，顺势而 为，勇敢再出发 ...