Core Insights - The private sector in the U.S. added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still significantly lower than the average level from the previous year [1][3][7] - Employers are becoming more cautious in hiring decisions due to increasing economic uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies, leading to a generally weak demand in the labor market [1][7] Employment Data - The ADP report indicates that the increase of 104,000 jobs in July was above the expected 76,000 and a recovery from a previous loss of 33,000 jobs [3] - The growth in employment is primarily driven by the recovery in the service sector, with leisure, hospitality, and financial activities showing the most significant job growth [4] - However, the education and health sectors have experienced a net loss in jobs so far this year [4] Wage Trends - The year-over-year salary growth for employees remaining in the same position was 4.4%, the lowest rate since May 2021, while job switchers saw a 7.0% increase [6] Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index rose approximately 10 points, while U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuations, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a 0.2% increase [8]

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have seen a slight increase, raising questions about the sustainability of this bullish trend in the market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies is contributing to potential risks in the palm oil market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures have experienced a minor uptick, indicating a possible bullish sentiment among investors [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The increasing uncertainty related to Trump's policies is posing risks to the palm oil market, which may affect future pricing and demand [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - April PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, marking the first contraction since the "926" policy[4] - April non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 177,000, a significant drop of 51,000 from the previous month[14] - Q1 2025 GDP growth rate was -0.3%, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from Q4 2024, the lowest in nearly four years[10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, cross-regional mobility reached 33.27 million people, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%[7] - Consumer spending is recovering steadily, with travel and tourism showing significant growth, particularly in scenic areas where visitor numbers increased by around 20%[7] - The correlation between consumer spending and the "old-for-new" policy is low, indicating a rise in spontaneous consumption tendencies[9] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a noticeable decline in exports, with new export orders and backlogs decreasing significantly[4] - The cancellation of the tariff exemption for goods valued at $800 will significantly impact small businesses and cross-border e-commerce[5] - The increase in import rates due to tariff policies has contributed to a surge in inventory levels, negatively affecting economic performance[12]