国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————内需维持稳定，外需压力初现 袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 5 月 5 日 内容提要 4 月 PMI 的量价和分项数据表明，美国对华关税政策升级以来出口明显降 温，总需求收缩压力有所增加，二季度经济相对一季度或将减速。 五一期间人员流动、景区游客人数和消费数据表明，居民消费活动在稳步恢 复。居民出行与以旧换新政策相关性较低，这暗示居民消费的恢复更多源于自发 的消费倾向回升，这一趋势在中期有望维持。 4 月美国新增非农就业数据大幅减速，失业率维持高位，工资增速小幅下滑， 这些数据表明美国劳动力市场在持续降温。一季度 GDP 数据与 4 月劳动力市场 数据显示特朗普政策不确定性对经济的影响已经显现，未来这一影响或将延续。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@es ...

Exchange Rate Trends - The CNY has recently appreciated against the USD, with the USD index closing at 99.84 on April 23, up 0.61% from the previous week, while the CNY closed at 7.293, up 0.12%[12] - Since Q2 2022, the USD has shown stronger performance compared to other currencies due to expansionary fiscal and industrial policies in the US, exerting depreciation pressure on the CNY[3] US Policy Impact - Trump's recent softening stance on tariffs has alleviated some market concerns, contributing to a slight recovery in the USD index[4] - The USD index has experienced two significant depreciations since March, contrary to actual interest rate trends, indicating heightened global economic risks due to US tariff policies[4] Future Outlook - The CNY's recent recovery may indicate a potential stabilization against the USD, but uncertainties remain due to ongoing US tariff strategies and potential fiscal expansions[5] - The Chinese government has prepared balanced policies to stabilize foreign trade, domestic demand, and exchange rates amid external shocks[5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the CNY at a reasonable equilibrium level, with a focus on avoiding excessive depreciation pressures[25] - The MLF net injection in April is projected to reach 500 billion, the highest monthly figure since 2024, indicating a shift in liquidity management strategies[25] Risks - There is a risk that the monetary policy easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the stability of the CNY[6]