美国三权分立制度近日再度显现其制衡效能，特朗普政府推动的关税政策遭遇司法系统当头棒喝。 追溯至特朗普首个总统任期，2018年启动的首轮关税战构成中美贸易摩擦的起点。这批针对中国商品单独加征的10%-20%关税已成为既成事实，其法律基础 和实施框架经多年运作已趋稳固，短期内不存在调整可能。 真正的变量集中在今年新增的两项关税措施：2月与3月接连出台的"芬太尼关税"，以及4月推出的全球性"对等关税"。 "芬太尼关税"以打击毒品泛滥为名，实则延续了特朗普政府将安全问题与贸易议题挂钩的策略，该政策分两次对中国商品加征10%关税，形成20%的叠加效 应。值得注意的是，这项单边制裁迄今未遭遇司法挑战，其法律有效性仍在延续。 相较之下，4月启动的"对等关税"则呈现不同命运。央视报道明确提及"美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日'解放日'宣布的关税政策生效"，也就是 在中美联合声明发布后双方互加的10%关税。 根据美国国际贸易法院最新裁决，特朗普今年4月2日以"对等关税"名义对全球贸易伙伴加征的关税被阻止。那么是不是意味着美国不再对中国商品加关税 了？并不是这么理解的，要搞清当前局面，需从美国对华关税政策的时空脉络展开 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - April PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, marking the first contraction since the "926" policy[4] - April non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 177,000, a significant drop of 51,000 from the previous month[14] - Q1 2025 GDP growth rate was -0.3%, a decline of 2.7 percentage points from Q4 2024, the lowest in nearly four years[10] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, cross-regional mobility reached 33.27 million people, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%[7] - Consumer spending is recovering steadily, with travel and tourism showing significant growth, particularly in scenic areas where visitor numbers increased by around 20%[7] - The correlation between consumer spending and the "old-for-new" policy is low, indicating a rise in spontaneous consumption tendencies[9] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a noticeable decline in exports, with new export orders and backlogs decreasing significantly[4] - The cancellation of the tariff exemption for goods valued at $800 will significantly impact small businesses and cross-border e-commerce[5] - The increase in import rates due to tariff policies has contributed to a surge in inventory levels, negatively affecting economic performance[12]

Exchange Rate Trends - The CNY has recently appreciated against the USD, with the USD index closing at 99.84 on April 23, up 0.61% from the previous week, while the CNY closed at 7.293, up 0.12%[12] - Since Q2 2022, the USD has shown stronger performance compared to other currencies due to expansionary fiscal and industrial policies in the US, exerting depreciation pressure on the CNY[3] US Policy Impact - Trump's recent softening stance on tariffs has alleviated some market concerns, contributing to a slight recovery in the USD index[4] - The USD index has experienced two significant depreciations since March, contrary to actual interest rate trends, indicating heightened global economic risks due to US tariff policies[4] Future Outlook - The CNY's recent recovery may indicate a potential stabilization against the USD, but uncertainties remain due to ongoing US tariff strategies and potential fiscal expansions[5] - The Chinese government has prepared balanced policies to stabilize foreign trade, domestic demand, and exchange rates amid external shocks[5] Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the CNY at a reasonable equilibrium level, with a focus on avoiding excessive depreciation pressures[25] - The MLF net injection in April is projected to reach 500 billion, the highest monthly figure since 2024, indicating a shift in liquidity management strategies[25] Risks - There is a risk that the monetary policy easing may not meet expectations, which could impact the stability of the CNY[6]