| | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油12(BMD) | 4369.00 | 0. 41 | -1. 64 | | 布伦特12(ICE) | 66. 01 | -0.06 | 0. 21 | | 美原油11(NYMEX) | 62. 34 | -0. 03 | 0. 27 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 25 | -1.44 | 0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 280. 20 | -1. 41 | 0. 25 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 49. 63 | -1.90 | 0. 38 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.29 | -0. 36 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1106 | -0. 03 | | | 马未林吉特(NYR/USD) | 4. 2040 | 0. 13 | | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16575 | 0. 44 | | | 巴西里亚尔( ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have declined due to market concerns that China may purchase U.S. soybeans as a substitute for palm oil, raising questions about whether this is a result of long positions being liquidated in advance [1] Group 1 - The decline in palm oil futures is linked to uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of U.S.-China talks [1] - Market participants are worried about the potential shift in China's procurement strategy, which could impact palm oil demand [1] - The situation has led to speculation about whether traders are preemptively exiting long positions in palm oil [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as currency exchange rates and central bank policies [1][2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and various currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given for different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 27th to 31st. The Midwest had rain and temperature drops over the weekend, and the 6 - 10 - day outlook shows a mix of dry and rainy conditions with lower - than - normal temperatures. Brazil's 9 - month rainfall pattern is weak, and the region will become warmer [3][5][6]. - **International Supply and Demand** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.19%. CBOT futures contracts had changes in long and short positions. Pro Farmer predicts high yields for US corn and soybeans. Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production and planting area are also expected to rise. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 12.9% [9][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - On August 22nd, the total trading volume of domestic soybean oil and palm oil increased by 3% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit increased, while the profit from purchasing piglets remained in the red. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly [13][14]. Macro - economic News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 91.1%. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for a September rate cut. Canada decided to cancel some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [16]. - **Domestic News** - On August 22nd, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The central bank conducted 3612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1232 billion yuan on that day and 13652 billion yuan for the week. On August 25th, the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. From January to July 2025, the country absorbed 4673.4 billion yuan of foreign investment [18][19]. Fund Flows - On August 22nd, the futures market had a net inflow of 144.8 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 16.11 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net inflow of 160.91 billion yuan. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures contracts [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given report for this section.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides insights into international and domestic supply - demand dynamics for various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and grains. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are provided, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 11 closed at 4529.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.51% and an overnight increase of 0.71% [1]. - Exchange rate data for major currencies are also presented, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.22 with a decline of 0.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For example, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China had a spot price of 9820 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 307 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 495 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from August 25 - 29 indicates that temperatures will be below normal and precipitation will mostly be near to below the median. Some parts of the US Midwest will experience rainfall and temperature drops [4][6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 17.5% according to AmSpec and 13.61% according to ITS compared to the same period last month [7]. - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 [8]. - Nebraska's soybean pod count is at a 22 - year high, while Indiana's is slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the three - year average [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 20, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,066 tons, a 152% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 114,900 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from the previous day [14]. - China's palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 47.22% month - on - month and 46.79% year - on - year. Soybean imports decreased by 4.86% month - on - month but increased by 18.39% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased by 4.61% month - on - month and 56.63% year - on - year [14][15]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 81.9% [16]. - The Eurozone's CPI annual rate in July was 2%, and the monthly rate was 0%. The Indonesian central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [17]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 20, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.1384, up 25 points (CNY depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [19]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On August 20, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 3.705 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 12.337 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 16.042 billion yuan [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

期货热点追踪 马棕油期货跌近2%，市场预期马来西亚7月棕榈油库存或激增10%，这波下跌只是开始？ 相关链接 ...

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive weekly declines, raising questions about the strength of the rebound despite production data aligning with analyst expectations [1] - The palm oil market is facing a significant inventory pressure with stock levels reaching 2.1 million tons, which may influence market dynamics and trading strategies [1] - The current market conditions prompt discussions on whether it is an appropriate time to short palm oil [1]

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have halted their upward trend as July exports have declined by nearly 10% [1] - The demand alarm has been raised, suggesting that the downward trend for palm oil may just be beginning [1] Industry Summary - The recent decline in palm oil exports indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, raising concerns about future demand [1] - The halt in the price increase of palm oil futures could signal a broader trend affecting the commodity market [1]