大家好 今天是2025年的5月26号星期一我是董小姐在美国市场遭遇新一轮的波动的时候我们看到跟美国市场以及国际市场联通比较紧的香港市场也是同步出现了调整今天我们看到的一些香港市场当中的权重股龙头股尤其是包括一些新能源车以及电池等等方向上的大龙头 三日是出现了6%到8%的跌幅那么带动整个的指数向下回调那么这种情况是集体发生的它并不是单独的一家公司所以你很难说是某一家上市公司基本面出现了问题我个人更倾向于看到的是香港市场当中可能资金出现了一些麻烦或者是流动性上出现了一些麻烦 要知道在大概上周的时候我们看到很多的中国的一些大的公司到香港市场当中去上市去新的IPO那么也因为这种上市的动作带动了一系列的舆论旋风这个舆论就是捧场的那么带动了很多的资金也涌入到了这个市场当中当时我们就跟大家聊到过说一方面是一些的龙头公司阶段性的短期之内迅速的拉伸创了历史性的阶段新高 那么短期之内又恰逢美国这边出台了一个政策所以催化剂一下子就引燃了市场那么这对于这种板块在弱势当中突然之间崛起的板块我们个人的理解的就是打打顺风牌就可以了顺其自然但是不要强求太多因为毕竟现在整体市场的成交量还是不够市场的热情度还是不够尤其是最近这段时间我们跟大家分 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The June non-farm payroll report revealed a significant increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.3% [1][3] - The job growth was primarily driven by a surge in government employment, particularly in education-related positions, which accounted for nearly half of the new jobs, indicating a structural imbalance in employment growth [3][9] - The report raised concerns about the sustainability of job growth, as private sector job additions were only 74,000, reflecting a moderate economic vitality [3][10] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm data, the financial markets experienced a rapid shift, with the dollar index rising by 0.6%, marking the largest single-day increase in three months, while gold prices fell sharply [5][6] - The expectations for a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve plummeted, with the probability of maintaining rates rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, indicating a fundamental shift in market pricing logic [4][5] Group 3: Political and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The release of the non-farm data sparked a heated debate in the U.S. political and financial spheres, highlighting the tension between political influence and the independence of monetary policy [7][8] - President Trump claimed credit for the job growth, labeling it the "Trump effect," despite the fact that a significant portion of the job increase came from government sectors, undermining the narrative of private sector prosperity [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Concerns - The report highlighted three major concerns: the sustainability of job growth, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies, and the potential for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [9][10] - Analysts expressed differing views on the Fed's future actions, with some suggesting that the likelihood of rate cuts has diminished, while others warned that economic indicators could still prompt a policy shift later in the year [8][10]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, significantly exceeding expectations, marking the fourth consecutive month of surpassing forecasts [1] Group 1 - The job growth in June is attributed to the "Trump effect," indicating a positive impact on employment due to current policies [1]