炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：面包财经 华宝新兴消费混合A自2021年3月成立以来，业绩表现持续承压，中短期收益均大幅跑输业绩比较基 准。截至2026年1月29日，该基金不仅过去一年跑输基准超过15个百分点，且成立以来的累计净值仍处 于下跌状态，同类排名靠后。 在业绩表现不佳的同时，该基金也经历了频繁的人事变动，历任多位基金经理，目前由吴心怡独自管 理。 近期披露的基金四季报显示，华宝新兴消费混合重仓互联网平台和白酒板块。基金持股集中度较高，前 十大重仓股占基金净值的比例超过75%。 过去1年跑输业绩基准逾15个百分点 华宝新兴消费混合的基金合同生效日为2021年3月18日，基金投资目标为：主要投资于新兴消费主题的 优质上市公司，在控制风险的前提下，力争实现资产的稳健增值。基金的业绩比较基准为：中证800指 数收益率×55%+中证综合债指数收益率×30%+恒生指数收益率×15%。 | 基金简称 | 如興潔求麻術分 | | --- | --- | | 基金主代码 | 011153 | | 基金运作方式 | 契约型开放式 | | 基金合同生效日 | 2021 年 ...

在政策引导与市场趋势的双重推动下，金融促消费的发力方向也日益清晰。上海金融与发展实验室副主 任、招联首席研究员董希淼接受《中国经营报》记者采访时指出，金融机构大力发展数字消费金融，构 建更精准的用户画像，减少过度授信和多头借贷行为，有序压降利率和费率，加强消费者合法权益保 护。金融管理部门推动在食、住、行、游、购、娱、医等场景畅通"卡、码、币"支付渠道，继续提升支 付便利度。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 岁末新春消费旺季叠加政策红利，全国消费市场持续升温。 为实现精准促消费，各家银行着力打造"全场景覆盖"的消费支持体系：一方面，涵盖购物、餐饮、出 行、文旅、冰雪等多元场景，兼顾传统高频消费；另一方面，针对消费信贷推出利率优惠、审批提速、 额度提升等服务，降低居民消费成本，提升消费意愿。 值得一提的是，财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局发布《关于优化实施个人消费贷款财政贴息政策 有关事项的通知》指出，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年年底。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》将拉动内需明确为"十五五"时期推 动经济增长的关键抓手，提出促进形成更多由内需主导、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a consensus on a "slow bull" market, with a focus on "uncrowded growth" opportunities in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [2][13] - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, supporting a favorable capital market for 2026, with a recovery in investor risk appetite [2][13] - There is a recognition of potential valuation bubbles in certain industries, prompting a strategy to identify quality companies that are not overvalued and have solid performance [2][13] Group 2 - The investment outlook for 2026 includes a focus on the AI industry chain, semiconductor domestic substitution, and the expansion of China's advantageous manufacturing overseas [2][13] - The report highlights the importance of structural growth deepening, with a significant emphasis on sectors that are expected to benefit from global technological innovation [2][13] - The article notes that while some industries show signs of valuation bubbles, there is a commitment to continuously track areas with positive marginal changes to ensure sustainable returns for investors [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption patterns in China are steadily growing, with emerging models like instant retail and live-streaming e-commerce showing rapid development, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Online Retail Growth - From January to November, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7% year-on-year, outpacing the total retail sales of consumer goods by 1.7 percentage points [1] - Online retail now accounts for 25.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, highlighting its growing importance in the market [1] Group 2: Emerging Consumption Trends - Digital consumption, green consumption, and health-oriented consumption are becoming new hotspots, playing an increasingly significant role in supporting and leading overall consumption trends [1] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market has maintained rapid growth during the same period [1]

Group 1 - The global macroeconomic environment has gradually improved since 2025, with corporate profit expectations and favorable policies driving the A-share market upward, with major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index showing cumulative gains exceeding 20% [3][42] - The technology, consumer, and new energy sectors have emerged as the main leaders in the market rally, with trading activity significantly increasing, as evidenced by a 15% year-on-year growth in average daily trading volume [3][42] - Equity funds have benefited from asset value growth and optimized investment strategies, with average returns for mixed equity funds surpassing 25% this year, and several thematic funds, such as those focused on artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, achieving gains over 40% [3][42] Group 2 - The Dachen Consumer Selected Stock A fund has underperformed, with a cumulative return of -18.82% since its inception, despite the overall bullish market conditions [3][22][61] - The fund's performance has been hindered by a heavy allocation to traditional consumer sectors like liquor and duty-free, which are facing demand ceilings, while emerging consumption areas such as instant retail and experience economy have not been adequately represented in the portfolio [8][47][56] - The fund's holdings in leading companies have seen a weakening of their competitive advantages, while new consumer brands have rapidly gained market share, indicating a need for the fund to reassess its thematic positioning and investment strategy [8][56][58] Group 3 - The Dachen Yuexiang Life Mixed A fund, established on December 10, 2021, has a current net asset value of 146 million yuan, with a unit net value of 0.8782 as of December 5, 2025, reflecting a significant underperformance compared to its peers [8][47][58] - The fund's net asset value has decreased by 5.12% in the latest reporting period, indicating ongoing challenges in attracting new investments, as evidenced by consistent redemptions across multiple quarters [57][58] - The fund's investment strategy has included significant positions in stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, which have seen substantial price declines during the holding periods, further contributing to the fund's poor performance [10][52][70]

Group 1: Traditional Market Dynamics - The Lu Tai market in Tianjin, with a history of 350 years, serves as a significant rural market, attracting over 20,000 participants on market days, showcasing its role as a cultural and commercial hub [1] - The market has evolved from a simple trading venue to a comprehensive platform that integrates regional culture, folk experiences, and urban-rural commerce, thus stimulating consumer potential [1] Group 2: Consumer Market Resilience - From January to October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, indicating strong market resilience [2] - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 37.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9%, demonstrating sustained internal market momentum [2] - The implementation of consumption policies has led to significant increases in the replacement of old products, with over 11.2 million vehicles and 128 million home appliances replaced under the "old for new" policy [2] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - Domestic travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival saw 888 million trips, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16%, highlighting the recovery of tourism and related industries [3] - Pilot programs in elder care services have been initiated in regions like Zhejiang and Shandong, providing subsidies for elderly care, which enhances the quality of life for seniors and creates new consumer segments [3] Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - The AI translation earphone market has seen explosive growth, with sales reaching 382,000 units in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 960.4%, and projected annual sales of 1.527 million units, reflecting a threefold increase [4] - The rise of smart home products is evident, with significant increases in the retail share of smart appliances, indicating a shift towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing [4] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The overall economic foundation remains strong, with a long-term positive trend expected to continue, as China progresses towards high-quality development and modernization [6]

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that Asian markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, are key diversification choices for investors who are currently overexposed to US equities [1][4]. Group 1: US Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with a terminal rate of around 3.5% by mid-2026 [2]. - Zeng notes that the likelihood of the Fed choosing to cut rates is greater than maintaining the current rates, although the exact timing remains uncertain [2]. - Fixed income is highlighted as a core tool for capital preservation amid macroeconomic volatility, with a shift in return drivers expected from credit spreads to interest rate spreads by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng Yonghui, Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific equities, points out that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and are now reallocating to Asian assets [4]. - The current low allocation of global investors to Asian stocks presents a significant opportunity, especially as Asian stocks have a low correlation with US stocks [4]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include innovation in technology, corporate reforms in major Asian economies, supply chain diversification, and emerging consumer trends [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines five strategic areas for attention, including modern industrial systems, technological breakthroughs, a unified domestic market, human-centered urbanization, and international cooperation [8]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Investment Strategies - Allianz's Head of Growth Multi-Asset, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond US equities [10]. - The traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio remains viable, but flexibility and inclusion of non-core risk exposures like emerging market bonds and gold are essential for resilience [10]. - Gold is reaffirmed as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [10]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [11]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets, supported by clearer standards for outcomes and reporting [12].

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that the Asian market, particularly the Chinese stock market, is a key diversification choice for investors who are currently overexposed to the US stock market [10][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Allianz Investment's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates, with the terminal rate expected to be around 3.5% by mid-2026 [5][7]. - Zeng notes that recent US policy signals suggest a potential stabilization in inflation data, although employment data may weaken [6][7]. - The investment return drivers are shifting, with 2025 returns driven by credit spread narrowing, while 2026 returns are likely to be primarily driven by spreads [8]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng highlights that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and there is a trend of Asian investors reallocating funds back to Asian assets [11]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include: 1. Innovation in technology manufacturing, especially in semiconductors, AI, and biotechnology [12]. 2. Corporate reforms in China, Korea, Japan, and Singapore aimed at enhancing shareholder value [12]. 3. Supply chain diversification benefiting markets like India due to reduced geopolitical concentration [12]. 4. Emerging consumer trends driven by domestic consumption and digital infrastructure, particularly in China and India [12]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz Investment's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests five strategic areas to watch: 1. Building a modern industrial system with a focus on advanced manufacturing and green transformation [15]. 2. Achieving substantial technological breakthroughs to enhance innovation capabilities [15]. 3. Establishing a strong domestic market to promote free flow of production factors [15]. 4. Promoting human-centered urbanization for balanced regional development [15]. 5. Strengthening international cooperation to enhance bilateral investments [15]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Gold - Allianz Investment's Head of Multi-Asset Growth, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond the US stock market [19]. - Gold has reestablished its status as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [20]. - Hartwig Kos anticipates that the trend of investing in gold will continue until 2026, supported by retail investment flows and geopolitical tensions [20]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz Investment's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [21]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets [21]. - Allianz has developed proprietary tools to integrate ESG and impact risk analysis into portfolio construction, enabling scenario testing and risk mitigation strategies across asset classes [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, concerns about liquidity due to the US government shutdown and negative feedback from high copper prices have caused copper prices to fall from their highs. However, in the long - term, the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease, and emerging consumption such as energy storage and AI has become a growth point. It is still recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Long - term non - US supply is generally tight, and after the inventory declines later, inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) can be considered. After the import ratio rebounds, there are also opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - aspect**: The record - high shutdown of the US government has increased short - term liquidity concerns in the market, and the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. But in the long - run, the expectation of US monetary easing remains unchanged, and the short - term liquidity problem will be resolved after the government reopens [7] - **Copper Mine**: In September, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 2,263.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances in copper mines have increased, with the production of Grasberg, QB Phase II, etc. falling short of expectations. On November 7, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.04 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.11 US dollars per ton from the previous period [7][30] - **Scrap Copper**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 21.23 million tons of scrap copper, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 169.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [38][42] - **Refined Copper**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. In December, after the concentrated maintenance in October and November, production may increase slightly, but some smelters have a low willingness to increase production due to high copper prices [5][48] - **Consumption**: Domestically, demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning industries have declined significantly. The main support for the market in the later stage comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, but there is an increase in purchases around 85,000 yuan per ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 0.32 million tons to 20.33 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 2.07 million tons compared with last Thursday, showing a continuous 5 - week weekly inventory accumulation. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons to 8.82 million tons. As of November 7, the LME inventory decreased to 13.5 million tons, but it is expected to increase later. The COMEX inventory has increased to over 35 million tons, and the COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4% [10][14][17] - **Price Difference and Ratio**: The COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4%, and a large amount of copper from South America is still being shipped to the US. It is recommended to consider inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) after the inventory declines later. After the previous export window opened, the LME inventory is expected to increase periodically, and the import ratio may rebound slightly. After the ratio rebounds, there are opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [10] 3.2 Copper Price Trends in 2025 - Throughout the year, copper prices have been affected by multiple factors such as US trade policies, production plan adjustments of major mines, and supply - side disturbances. For example, in March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on copper, which drove up copper prices; in April, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted panic - stricken; in September, Grasberg adjusted its production plan [12][13] 3.3 Copper Market Data - **Copper Concentrate Market**: In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production decreased. In Peru, the copper production from January to August was about 1.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In August, the copper production was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In Chile, due to a collapse accident in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine in July, the state - owned copper company Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast [31][32][36] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi [38] - **Crude Copper Market**: In July 2025, the crude copper production was 1.0585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.76%. In September, China imported 50,100 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year decrease of 32.84%. From January to September, the cumulative import of anode copper was 578,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58% [44][46] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. From January to September, China imported 2.5416 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%; the export of refined copper was 489,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15% [48][52] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In October, the operating rates of refined - copper rod, copper tube, enameled wire, and copper cable enterprises all decreased month - on - month, but are expected to increase slightly in November. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased in October and is expected to continue to rise in November. The operating rate of SMM's copper plate and strip enterprises decreased slightly in October and is expected to increase slightly in November [58] - **Consumption Areas** - **Air - Conditioning Consumption**: In September 2025, China's domestic air - conditioning production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In November, the production schedule of domestic air - conditioners was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% [62] - **Automobile Consumption**: In September, automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [66] - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to September 2025, China's power grid investment reached 437.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, but the growth rate dropped significantly compared with that from January to August [69] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing in China was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the housing completion area was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [70][74] - **Overseas Data**: In the US, the sales of newly - built houses and the number of newly - started private residential buildings, as well as automobile sales, and in Europe, the registration volume of passenger cars all show certain trends and changes [76][77] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to September 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 79.39GW or 49.34%. From January to September, the new wind - power installed capacity was 61.09GW, a year - on - year increase of 21.97GW or 56.16% [80] - **Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales**: In August 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales were 1.7134 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%. From January to September, the new - energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.2903 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.01% [87] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased month - on - month. The CSPT group did not set a TC guidance price for the fourth quarter in its third - quarter meeting. Indonesia granted Amman Mining a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. The US and euro - zone manufacturing PMIs showed different trends. Anglo Asian Mining signed a sales contract for copper concentrates. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter in Canada. Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast. The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity. The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization. The US included copper in its new critical - mineral list. The Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [88]

Core Insights - Nanhua Fund's actively managed equity funds ranked 20th among 152 comparable fund managers in absolute return over the three years ending September 30, 2025, indicating strong performance in the industry [1] - The company emphasizes a clear investment style and strategy to cater to various risk preferences, aiming for wealth enhancement through well-researched products [1][3] Investment Strategies - Nanhua Fenghui focuses on investing in stocks of companies with sound governance, stable operations, excellent performance, and sustainable growth potential, employing a diversified and flexible investment strategy [1] - Nanhua Fengchun, managed by Xu Chao, targets high-end manufacturing sectors such as humanoid robots and solid-state batteries, aiming for steady asset appreciation through a forward-looking and research-driven approach [2] - Nanhua Ruiying demonstrates strong flexible allocation capabilities, with a stock asset ratio of 60%-95%, focusing on emerging consumption and AI applications to capture multi-layered investment opportunities [2] Research and Management - Under the leadership of experienced fund managers, Nanhua Fund aims to balance value and growth in its product line, translating research capabilities into tangible results [3] - The company maintains a long-term investment philosophy, prioritizing the interests of its investors while managing risks and capturing opportunities in a complex market environment [3]