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政府债周报:下周新增债披露发行1719亿-20251027
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 10月27日至11月2日地方债披露发行2706.82亿元,其中新增债1719.10亿元,再融资债987.72亿元 [1][5] - 10月20日至10月26日地方债共发行2472.28亿元,其中新增债1136.52亿元,再融资债1335.76亿元 [1][6] - 截至10月26日,第五轮第二批特殊再融资债共披露19934.09亿元,第六轮特殊再融资债共披露544.89亿元,下周新增披露245.84亿元;2025年特殊新增专项债共披露12379.89亿元,2023年以来共披露24258.52亿元 [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - 10月20日至10月26日地方债净供给1658亿元,10月27日至11月2日地方债预告净供给1780亿元 [15] - 展示9月和10月地方债计划与实际发行情况,以及地方债近月发行计划与实际发行、净融资情况 [16][23] Local Bond Net Supply - 截至10月26日,新增一般债发行进度83.69%,新增专项债发行进度87.11% [28] - 截至10月26日,再融资债减地方债到期当年累计规模情况展示 [29] Special Bond Issuance Details - 截至10月26日,特殊再融资债统计情况展示,包括各轮发行额及各地区情况 [34] - 截至10月26日,特殊新增专项债统计情况展示,包括2023 - 2025年各地区情况 [37][38] Local Bond Investment and Trading - 展示地方债一二级利差及分区域二级利差情况 [41][42] - 展示新增专项债投向情况,最新月份统计只考虑已发行的新增债 [43]
政府债周报(10、12):下周新增债披露发行154亿-20251013
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-13 13:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoint The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance of local bonds, the progress of new bond issuance, the net supply of refinancing bonds, and the issuance details of special bonds. It also analyzes the investment and trading aspects of local bonds, such as the primary - secondary spread and the regional secondary spread [2][6][7]. Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 29 to October 12, local bonds were issued with a total of 825.28 billion yuan, including 258.89 billion yuan of new bonds (99.20 billion yuan of new general bonds and 159.69 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 566.38 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (454.33 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 112.05 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From October 13 to October 19, the forecasted issuance of local bonds is 213.46 billion yuan, including 153.65 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 153.65 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 59.81 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 34.86 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6][7]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, which are presented in relevant figures and tables [17][21]. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special bonds is 84.10% [31]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 12 is presented in a figure, with the statistical scope including both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [32][33]. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 12, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 19958.85 billion yuan, with no new disclosure this week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan), and Guizhou (1271.32 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 12, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 23907.80 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [45]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds for different regions from July 11, 2025, to October 10, 2025, are presented in a table [46]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The investment direction of new special bonds is presented in a figure, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [48].
政府债周报:9月地方债计划发行7658亿-20250902
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-01 23:30
Report Title - 9 月地方债计划发行 7658 亿——政府债周报(8/31) [1][4] Report Core View - 报告对 8 月 25 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债发行情况进行复盘与预告,同时展示特殊债发行进展 [2][4][5] Report Key Points 地方债发行情况 - 9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债披露发行 933.91 亿元,其中新增债 178.37 亿元(新增专项债 178.37 亿元),再融资债 755.54 亿元 [2][4] - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债共发行 3515.97 亿元,其中新增债 2232.89 亿元(新增一般债 353.10 亿元,新增专项债 1879.79 亿元),再融资债 1283.08 亿元 [2][5] 特殊债发行进展 - 截至 8 月 31 日,第四轮特殊再融资债共披露 44093.73 亿元,2025 年已披露 20208.48 亿元,下周新增披露 0.00 亿元,披露规模前三为江苏 5647.00 亿元、湖南 2787.32 亿元、河南 2556.26 亿元 [6] - 截至 8 月 31 日,2025 年特殊新增专项债共披露 4407.33 亿元,2023 年以来共披露 16312.46 亿元,披露规模前三为江苏 2102.35 亿元、湖北 1287.69 亿元、新疆 1188.60 亿元;2025 年披露规模前三为江苏 951.00 亿元、河北 391.43 亿元、湖北 369.13 亿元 [6] 地方债净供给与发行进度 - 8 月 25 日 - 8 月 31 日地方债净供给 2435 亿元,9 月 1 日 - 9 月 7 日地方债预告净供给 367 亿元 [12][13][19] - 截至 8 月 31 日,新增一般债发行进度 77.60%,新增专项债发行进度 74.18% [12][24] 特殊债发行统计 - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊再融资债统计情况,包含四轮发行额及各省市数据 [28][29] - 展示截至 8 月 31 日特殊新增专项债统计情况,包含 2023 - 2025 年各省市数据 [31][32] 地方债投资与交易 - 展示地方债一二级利差情况 [35][36] - 展示分区域二级利差情况,涉及多个省市不同时间数据 [37] 新增专项债投向 - 涉及新增专项债投向及项目投向逐月统计 [11][39]