固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 2241 亿 ——政府债周报（1123） 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日地方债披露发行 3296.9 亿元。其中新增债 2241.2 亿元（新增一般债 87.5 亿元，新增专项债 2153.7 亿元），再融资债 1055.7 亿元（再融资一般债 663.9 亿元，再 融资专项债 391.9 亿元）。 11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日地方债共发行 1846.6 亿元。其中新增债 1026.7 亿元（新增一般债 203.6 亿元，新增专项债 823.1 亿元），再融资债 819.9 亿元（再融资一般债 466.6 亿元，再融资专项 债 353.3 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - From November 10 - 16, local government bonds are scheduled to be issued worth 2850.66 billion yuan, including 1519.16 billion yuan of new bonds (125.18 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1393.99 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 1331.50 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (854.25 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 477.25 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From November 3 - 9, local government bonds were actually issued worth 916.07 billion yuan, including 452.11 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 452.11 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 463.97 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (336.64 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 127.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Local Government Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local government bonds with pre - issuance disclosures, but specific data presentation is mainly through figures [14]. - **Planned Issuance vs. Actual Issuance**: Compares planned and actual issuances of new and refinancing bonds, with specific data presented in figures [16]. - **Local Government Bond Net Supply**: From November 3 - 9, the net supply of local government bonds was - 360 billion yuan; from November 10 - 16, the forecasted net supply is 2428 billion yuan [19]. - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 91.65% [28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of November 9 is presented in a figure [28]. 2.2 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 19962.24 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 1111.43 billion yuan, with an additional 537.69 billion yuan newly disclosed for the next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round second - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1189.24 billion yuan) [8]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of November 9, 2025 special new special bonds totaled 12518.43 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 24397.06 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in 2025 were Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [8]. 2.3 Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Compares the primary - secondary spreads of local government bonds on November 2 and November 9, presented in figures [40]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: Compares regional secondary spreads of local government bonds, presented in a figure [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: Presents the investment directions of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds, presented in a figure [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From September 29 to October 5, local bonds are expected to be issued at 10.7153 billion yuan, including 5.9341 billion yuan in new bonds (992 million yuan in new general bonds and 4.9421 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.7811 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (3.5178 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.2633 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4] - From September 22 to September 28, local bonds were actually issued at 19.6051 billion yuan, including 15.5194 billion yuan in new bonds (560.4 million yuan in new general bonds and 14.959 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.0857 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (582.7 million yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3.503 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][5] - As of September 28, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 120.1225 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 238.9088 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan), and Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (10.2748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 22 to September 28, the net supply of local bonds was 12.25 billion yuan; from September 29 to October 5, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 9.81 billion yuan [10][12][15] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The planned and actual issuance of local bonds in August and September are presented through charts, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [10][14][16] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.29%, and that of new special bonds is 83.73% [10][25] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The chart shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of September 28 [10][25] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: The chart shows the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds in various regions as of September 28, including five rounds and two batches in the fifth round. The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [28][29][30] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 28, the statistical situation of special new special bonds in different regions from 2023 to 2025 is presented, and the statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [31][32][33] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The charts show the primary - secondary spreads of local bonds and the secondary spreads by region, including the changes from September 19 to September 26 [35][36][37] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The chart shows the investment direction of new special bonds, and the latest monthly statistics only consider the investment directions of issued new bonds [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 15th to September 21st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 18.8519 billion yuan, including 11.8538 billion yuan of new bonds (2.0715 billion yuan of new general bonds and 9.7823 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.9981 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.3888 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.6093 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From September 8th to September 14th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 30.1672 billion yuan, including 14.6601 billion yuan of new bonds (1.4732 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.1868 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 15.5072 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (8.7045 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 6.8026 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. - As of September 14, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 102.7566 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 221.8079 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (12.7460 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (8.7087 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Local Debt Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 8th to September 14th, the net supply of local government bonds is 19.28 billion yuan; from September 15th to September 21st, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 3.09 billion yuan [14][17]. - **Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance**: In August, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds; in September, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][18]. Local Debt Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 77.18%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds is 75.83% [25]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of September 14 shows the net supply situation of refinancing bonds [25]. Special Debt Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds for various regions [29]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 14, it shows the issuance statistics of special new special bonds in 2023 - 2025 for various regions [32]. Local Debt Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: It shows the primary - secondary spread and regional secondary spread of local government bonds [36][37]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: It shows the investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From August 25th to August 31st, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 351.597 billion yuan, including 223.289 billion yuan of new bonds (35.31 billion yuan of new general bonds and 187.979 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 128.308 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (65.693 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 62.615 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][4]. - From August 18th to August 24th, the actual issuance of local government bonds is 369.15 billion yuan, including 248.807 billion yuan of new bonds (9.539 billion yuan of new general bonds and 239.268 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 120.343 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (46.873 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 73.47 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Local Government Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From August 18th to August 24th, the net supply of local government bonds is 208.8 billion yuan [13]. - **Comparison between Plan and Actual Issuance**: In July, there are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds. In August, there are also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][20]. - **Net Supply of Local Government Bonds**: The forecasted net supply of local government bonds from August 25th to August 31st is 243.5 billion yuan [18]. - **Issuance Progress of New Bonds**: As of August 24th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 71.67%, and that of new special bonds is 69.54% [28]. - **Net Supply of Refinancing Bonds**: As of August 24th, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities is presented in the report [28]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 4409.373 billion yuan, with 2020.848 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 29.123 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hunan, and Henan [6]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of August 24th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 440.733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 1631.246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu, Hubei, and Xinjiang [6]. 3. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds and the secondary spreads by region [39][40]. - **New Special Bond Investment Directions**: The report shows the investment directions of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From August 11th to August 17th, local government bonds issued a total of 9.1432 billion yuan, including 4.9356 billion yuan in new bonds (3.0321 billion yuan in new general bonds and 1.9034 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.2076 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (2.8632 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.3445 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds). From August 18th to August 24th, local government bonds are expected to issue 36.915 billion yuan, including 24.8807 billion yuan in new bonds (953.9 million yuan in new general bonds and 23.9268 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 12.0343 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (4.6873 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 7.347 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4][5] - As of August 17th, the fourth round of special refinancing bonds has a total disclosed amount of 435.5743 billion yuan, with 196.7218 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 9.164 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the fourth - round disclosure scale are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Hunan (27.8732 billion yuan), and Shandong (24.1398 billion yuan). As of August 17th, the special new special bonds in 2025 have a total disclosed amount of 44.0733 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 163.1246 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (11.886 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities with separate planning in terms of the 2025 disclosure scale are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Hebei (3.9143 billion yuan), and Hubei (3.6913 billion yuan) [6] Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - From August 11th to August 17th, the net supply of local government bonds was - 1.37 billion yuan; from August 18th to August 24th, the forecast net supply of local government bonds is 20.88 billion yuan [10][15] - A comparison of the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in July and August is presented, showing differences in the issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [13][17] - The monthly issuance plan, actual issuance, and net financing situation of local government bonds are also shown [21] Local Bond Net Supply - As of August 17th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 70.47%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.10% [25] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of August 17th is presented [25] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of August 17th, the statistics of special refinancing bonds show the issuance amounts in different rounds for various provinces and municipalities [29] - As of August 17th, the statistics of special new special bonds show the issuance amounts from 2023 to 2025 for various provinces and municipalities [31] Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [36] - The second - level spreads of local government bonds in different regions are presented, showing the spread changes in different regions from May to August 2025 [39] New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [42]