投资亮点 2025 年10 月29 日公司公告收到某型外贸产品发动机装药合同4.66 亿元，特种贸易有望为公司打开长期 空间。公司IPO项目A 区、B 区专业化产线产能逐步释放，生产效能得到快速提升；动力模块现有产能 改造优化和扩能建设项目有望助力公司突破产能瓶颈，为业绩快速释放奠定基础。 我们与市场的最大不同：市场认为制导装备和弹药装备长期业绩持续性存疑，但我们认为其储备特性叠 加外贸需求增加，增长确定性较高，同时公司积极跟研新型号和扩充产能，业绩有望快速增长。 潜在催化剂：1）订单超预期；2）扩产进度超预期。 盈利预测与估值 我们预计公司2025/2026 年EPS 分别为1.10/1.41 元，2024-2026年CAGR 为21.8%。当前对应2026 年43x P/E。考虑到公司作为国内少数具有制导装备固发动力和安全控制模块、弹药装备生产能力的企业之 一，长期成长确定性高，我们首次覆盖给予"跑赢行业"评级，目标价70.61 元，对应2026 年50x P/E，潜 在空间18%。 风险 首次覆盖国科军工（688543）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价70.61元，对应2026 年50x P/E。理由如下： 制 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the aerospace technology industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the resonance of domestic and international demand, particularly with the commencement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2026 [2][5] - The article highlights that global defense spending is projected to increase by 9.4% year-on-year to approximately $2.72 trillion in 2024, marking the largest annual increase since the Cold War, which will drive demand for specialized equipment [2][6] - The domestic aerospace sector is expected to benefit from the modernization of special equipment and the release of new application models, with a focus on the continued growth of domestic demand [2][5] Group 2 - The demand for new domain and new quality equipment, such as hypersonic, unmanned, and intelligent systems, is anticipated to be released gradually, with significant growth potential in the supply chain's core segments [3][9] - The article notes that by 2026, the penetration rate of hypersonic equipment is expected to increase rapidly, driven by the demand for mid-to-long-range guided equipment [3][9] - Unmanned systems are projected to penetrate various demand fields, with high growth potential expected to be realized by 2026 due to the combination of domestic and international demand [3][9] Group 3 - The article discusses the emergence of new industries driven by technology spillover, including large aircraft, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace, which are entering a new stage of development [4][14] - By September 2025, the domestic commercial aircraft manufacturer COMAC is expected to have delivered 22 C919 aircraft, with production and delivery capabilities anticipated to continue improving [4][14] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to accelerate its industrialization process, with satellite internet construction entering a normalized networking phase by 2026 [4][15] Group 4 - The article suggests that the aerospace technology industry should focus on three key directions: core equipment, new domain and new quality equipment, and the growth of emerging industries driven by technology spillover [4][16] - The resonance of domestic and international demand is expected to sustain the prosperity of core equipment in 2026, while new domain and new quality equipment are anticipated to realize their growth potential [4][16] - The booming development of large aircraft, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy is expected to gradually lead these industries into a new phase of development [4][16]