ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 玉米系数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/25 整体来说,短期基层借售,东北物流紧张,下游低库存等因素带来阶段性供应紧张,现货价格坚挺,盘面跟随反弹。卖压预期后置,供应 压力未充分释放前建议谨慎看多,关注农户售粮节奏变化和物流情况。 玉米主力合约基差(锦州港平舱价) 玉米淀粉主力合约基差 数据来源:WIND、钢联 ttp://19/20 ===== 19/20 ====== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 23/24 = ======21/22 ==========22/23 == == first and the state of the succession war in the of the province of the may AX x with ! 2 : Milling 200 H -200 -200 400 -400 02/21 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明 * 合约:c2601 ® 观点： 玉米 区间震荡, 区间为[2000,2300] ® 狸婦， 2025/26年度王米树植成本侨盘面的最低价格约在2000元/吨，成本支撑好强，叠加五米润用需求存在列性，五米价格下方存在支撑，四季度是传统售根压力明，新季玉米丰宁因力规则，因都压米价格上方空间，综 合来看，预计C2601合约区间震荡为主，震荡区间为[2000,2300]。 【玉米周报20251115】阶段性供应压力放缓，玉米期现货价格反， 覧。 日期: 2025-11-16 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【玉米周报20251115】阶段性供应压力放缓，玉米期现货价格反弹。 | | | | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形号向 | 现货做口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | | | | | 100%比例卖 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Pro Farmer's final yield estimate report indicates that the total corn production in the U.S. for 2025 is projected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, marking a historical high but still below the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [1] - As of September 1, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 1,689 contracts in corn futures warehouse receipts, totaling 67,737 contracts [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina's corn harvest is nearing completion, with 97.2% of the 2024/25 crop harvested as of August 27, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures notes that as September begins, the pricing weight of the new season corn increases, with main futures prices entering last year's pricing range. There is no concentrated port pressure this year, and the low carryover inventory along with excessive rainfall risks in major production areas persist. Despite lower planting costs due to decreased land rental costs, the likelihood of breaking last year's price range is considered low under the current policy environment aimed at stabilizing prices and increasing farmers' income [2] - Zhongyuan Futures highlights that new grain is gradually entering the market, with low inventory levels among Northeast traders and continued imports suppressing market sentiment. Demand from feed consumption is under pressure due to policy impacts, and deep processing enterprises are exerting price pressure to create pricing advantages for new grain. Currently, there is intense competition around the 2,200 yuan level, with actual prices breaking the previous support level of 2,150 yuan. It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the rhythm of new grain listings and the potential breakthrough of the 2,200 yuan resistance level, with risks associated with a concentrated new grain market potentially leading to price corrections in the 2,150-2,170 yuan range [2]