ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 玉米系数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/25 整体来说,短期基层借售,东北物流紧张,下游低库存等因素带来阶段性供应紧张,现货价格坚挺,盘面跟随反弹。卖压预期后置,供应 压力未充分释放前建议谨慎看多,关注农户售粮节奏变化和物流情况。 玉米主力合约基差(锦州港平舱价) 玉米淀粉主力合约基差 数据来源:WIND、钢联 ttp://19/20 ===== 19/20 ====== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 23/24 = ======21/22 ==========22/23 == == first and the state of the succession war in the of the province of the may AX x with ! 2 : Milling 200 H -200 -200 400 -400 02/21 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The corn market is expected to trade in a range, with the C2601 contract oscillating between 2000 and 2300 yuan/ton. The cost support at around 2000 yuan/ton is strong, and there is rigid demand for corn. However, the traditional selling pressure in the fourth quarter and the bumper harvest of new - season corn limit the upside potential of prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Corn spot and futures prices are strong, and the national corn selling progress is 24%, with a 2% week - on - week increase but a slowdown in growth rate. North China's selling progress is 23%, and Northeast China's is 19%, both relatively fast year - on - year. However, the progress in each province has slowed down to some extent. The price increase is due to factors such as price hikes by state - owned grain depots and traders, but there are issues with export ports, and downstream enterprises' willingness to build inventories at high prices is average [10]. Corn Import - Corn import volume has significantly decreased. In September 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, an 80.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 890,000 tons, a 92.92% decrease compared to the same period last year. The USDA estimates that China's corn import volume in the 2025/26 season will be 8 million tons, 2 million tons less than the previous forecast [17][18]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat is out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has increased. In September 2025, the import volume of barley was 1229300 tons, a 30.86% year - on - year increase, and the import volume of sorghum was 674600 tons, a 30.53% year - on - year decrease [21][23]. Demand Feed and Livestock Farming - The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the farming profit is poor. In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 88.0%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Self - breeding and self - raising pig farming, broiler farming, and egg - laying hen farming are all in a loss state [33][34]. Deep - processing - The production profit of deep - processing has deteriorated again, and the consumption of alcohol is relatively high. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises has increased, with Shandong at around 78% and Heilongjiang at around 92%. The production of corn starch has increased to 328,400 tons, and the downstream pick - up volume has remained stable at 383,400 tons. The consumption of corn by alcohol enterprises has slightly decreased to about 420,000 tons [52]. Inventory - Channels and downstream inventories are still low, while starch inventories are significantly high. As of November 7, the inventory of the four northern ports is about 1.07 million tons, the inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized at about 20 days of available inventory, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is about 2.74 million tons. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises is about 1.13 million tons, a record high in the same period in the past eight years [69][70][71]. Basis and Spread - The spreads between different corn contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9), starch contracts, and the spread between corn and starch contracts are provided, showing different price differences at different times [129][131]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On November 13, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [133].

Group 1: Market Overview - Pro Farmer's final yield estimate report indicates that the total corn production in the U.S. for 2025 is projected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, marking a historical high but still below the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [1] - As of September 1, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 1,689 contracts in corn futures warehouse receipts, totaling 67,737 contracts [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina's corn harvest is nearing completion, with 97.2% of the 2024/25 crop harvested as of August 27, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures notes that as September begins, the pricing weight of the new season corn increases, with main futures prices entering last year's pricing range. There is no concentrated port pressure this year, and the low carryover inventory along with excessive rainfall risks in major production areas persist. Despite lower planting costs due to decreased land rental costs, the likelihood of breaking last year's price range is considered low under the current policy environment aimed at stabilizing prices and increasing farmers' income [2] - Zhongyuan Futures highlights that new grain is gradually entering the market, with low inventory levels among Northeast traders and continued imports suppressing market sentiment. Demand from feed consumption is under pressure due to policy impacts, and deep processing enterprises are exerting price pressure to create pricing advantages for new grain. Currently, there is intense competition around the 2,200 yuan level, with actual prices breaking the previous support level of 2,150 yuan. It is advised to maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on the rhythm of new grain listings and the potential breakthrough of the 2,200 yuan resistance level, with risks associated with a concentrated new grain market potentially leading to price corrections in the 2,150-2,170 yuan range [2]