Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn market is "oscillating" [4] Report's Core View - The recent counter - seasonal rise in corn prices is due to the extremely tight downstream inventories caused by the market's previous unanimous bearish expectations, combined with factors such as logistics and grain quality issues, essentially reflecting the low carry - over of old crops. In the short term, before the spot market contradictions are resolved, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, the trends of the 03 and 05 contracts need to closely monitor the changes in the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas, the arrival of imported corn, and policy trends [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress has exceeded 30%, which is relatively fast compared to the same period in history. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant. Imported Brazilian corn is arriving at ports successively [4] - **Demand**: Bullish. As of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 38.0%, a 2.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term. Feed enterprises have low inventories and a rigid demand for replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, and channel traders have a strong willingness to purchase new - season corn [4] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation rate at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at southern ports has dropped to a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises also have low corn inventories [4] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level, and the spread is at a high level [4] - **Profit**: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs, meat and egg - laying poultry, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are all in the red [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the absolute futures price, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The railway administration issued a loading - limit notice, increasing the short - term expectation of logistics tightness [4] - **Investment View**: Oscillating. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, closely monitor the grain - selling rhythm, import situation, and policy trends for the 03 and 05 contracts [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, and arbitrage is on hold. Pay attention to policies and weather [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, national average prices, port prices, starch prices, and futures contract positions. These charts show the historical data from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the price trends and position changes of corn in different periods [6][8][12] Part Three: Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grass - roots grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China is presented through charts, showing the data from 2019/20 - 2025/26 [23] - **Channel Supply**: The channel supply has increased, and relevant data on the arrival volume at northern ports and the remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises are presented [25] - **Import**: In October, corn imports increased, while imports of sorghum and barley decreased [35] - **Port Inventory**: The inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports are at low levels [41] - **Feed Industry**: The inventory days of feed enterprises are presented, and the monthly feed production from 2021 - 2025 is also shown. The data shows that as of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase [46][48] - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are in the red. The pig price has declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious [50][54] - **Deep - Processing Industry**: The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased seasonally, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is being depleted. The alcohol start - up rate has increased seasonally, but the processing profit has declined [65][73][93] - **Substitute Products**: The wheat price has risen, and the flour demand is weak [100] Part Four: Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **USDA Report**: The corn stock - to - use ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The global corn production and its distribution are presented, with the United States accounting for 32%, China 23%, Brazil 10%, Ukraine 3%, Argentina 4%, and other countries 28% [113][117][118] - **US Corn Exports**: US corn export sales are performing well, and the export sales and cumulative export sales to China are also presented [119]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. The recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to the combined effect of temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. Although the Northeast production area faces pressure from concentrated grain sales and downstream demand has not recovered significantly, factors such as poor grain flow, low inventory in the trading and downstream sectors, and possible strengthening of farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a strong - oscillating price trend during the traditional supply - pressure period. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [5][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of November, the price of the main corn contract rose from the previous low (2000 - 2100 yuan/ton) and then entered a high - level oscillation pattern due to lack of subsequent driving forces. Frequent snow and rain in the Northeast improved new - grain storage conditions, strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell, and restricted logistics, reducing the outflow of grain and supporting the corn price in the production area. However, downstream demand was weak, enterprise inventory was relatively sufficient, and losses in the breeding sector suppressed feed consumption, resulting in low market trading activity. The current price increase is supported by short - term supply - demand mismatches, and its sustainability and upward space need further observation [7]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with 01 at a discount to 05 and 05 at a discount to 09 [8]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose Supply in the Corn Market Lays the Foundation for Low Prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared with 2024. The Northeast had significant production increases, while the North China's output was flat due to weather. Since July 1, the auction of imported corn and the increasing substitution of wheat for corn in feed use have jointly promoted the transformation of the corn market from a structurally tight balance to an overall loose one [11]. - The new - season corn planting cost in the Northeast in 2025/2026 is 1078 - 1379 yuan/mu, a decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/mu compared with the previous year. After adding other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, but due to production and rent adjustments, it is reduced to 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is in the range of 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Although the national corn output has increased, there are still prominent regional and structural contradictions. In North China, about 20 - 30 million tons of corn cannot be used for feed due to quality problems, increasing the demand for Northeast corn. Logistics bottlenecks have also exacerbated the supply - demand mismatch between production and sales areas. Currently, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is about 19% and in North China is about 23%, and there will still be supply pressure from concentrated grain sales later [15]. - In October 2025, China imported 12.028 million tons of grain, and from January to October, the cumulative import was 118.775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%. In October, the corn import volume was 359,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year. From January to October, the corn import volume was 1.2928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.15%. The import volumes of wheat, sorghum, and barley also decreased significantly, indicating that domestic supply basically meets demand and the proportion of imported corn in the market has shrunk rapidly [16][17]. - In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4%, and due to weak downstream demand, wheat had a price advantage over corn, resulting in a substitution of 20 - 30 million tons in the feed sector. As the corn - wheat price difference reversed, the substitution effect of wheat weakened, and the diverted demand returned to the corn market [22]. 3.2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but Without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Corn consumption is mainly concentrated in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The current downstream market shows "stable rigid demand but lack of significant growth momentum" [26]. - In the feed - breeding sector, since July, policies have been promoting the reduction of the inventory of breeding sows, but the process of capacity reduction is slow. As of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of breeding sows was still high. The pig index has fallen below the breeding cost, and the pig futures and spot prices are expected to remain at the bottom, and the industry will gradually enter the capacity - reduction stage [27]. - In the deep - processing sector, after the new - season corn price dropped, deep - processing enterprises in the north and south generally turned from losses to profits. The deep - processing starch profits in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Shandong were about 81.92 yuan/ton, 41.04 yuan/ton, 33.06 yuan/ton, and - 76.06 yuan/ton respectively [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory at a Phased Low Increases Price Elasticity - As of November 21, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.4 million tons, and the inventory in Guangdong Port was 599,000 tons, both at a medium - low level in recent years. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grassroots surplus grain and traders' reluctance to sell, while the decline in southern port inventory reflects reduced arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffering effect of the market, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33][37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose, and the recent "inverse seasonal increase" is due to temporary and regional supply - demand mismatches and structural support factors. The short - term upward space for corn prices is limited, and the market will focus on the grain - selling rhythm in production areas, the recovery process of downstream demand, and market sentiment changes [39].

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is showing resilience against expected price declines due to slow new grain listings caused by continuous rainy weather and strong downstream demand [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of September 26, the national average corn price is 2300.81 yuan/ton, down 0.17 yuan/ton from the previous working day, with a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year increase of 10.25% [1] - Continuous rainy weather has negatively impacted both the listing process and quality of new corn, leading to a slower supply in the market [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of corn in the North China market is lower than the same period last year, with strong support for prices due to limited old grain stocks among traders [1] - As of September 26, corn inventory at six northern ports has decreased to 1.488 million tons, down from 1.981 million tons last year, representing a reduction of 493,000 tons or 24.89% [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The corn starch industry has seen a slight increase in operating rates, with the operating load at 58.09% as of September 25, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The short-term supply-demand mismatch is expected to persist, but with anticipated increases in corn supply from Shandong and Hebei in October, prices may face downward pressure [1]