研究报告 生猪月报 供需维持偏松格局，盘面维持低位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 后的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 9 月生猪期货主力合约期价在 12220-13710 元/吨之 间运行。整体来看，9 月生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡下行的走势， 当月总体大幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2511 下跌 1200 元/吨，跌幅 8.85%，报收 12355 元/吨。 【后市展望】 2025 年 9 月，生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡下行的走势，当月 总体大幅下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 展望后市，行业政策方面，9 月 16 日畜牧业协会召开生猪产 能调控企业座谈会，调控明年生猪出栏供给。从供给端来看，从 能繁母猪存栏量推算，供给端对猪价形成持续压力。8 月猪肉月 度进口处于历史低位。需求端来看，7 月末屠宰量环比小幅上升， 处于历史高位。随着气温 ...

据广东省发展和改革委员会官微消息，根据广东省价格监测中心监测，9月23日全省平均猪粮比价为 5.64∶1，连续三周处于5∶1~6∶1之间。进入广东省发展改革委等五部门联合印发《广东省完善政府猪肉储 备调节机制做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》设定的过度下跌二级预警区间。广东省将适时开展冻猪肉 储备收储工作。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the pig farming industry shows signs of recovery, with several companies reporting significant profit increases, driven by policy support and operational improvements [10][11][12]. Company Performance - Aonong Bio reported a net profit of 361 million yuan for the first half of the year, successfully reversing losses from the previous year [1][11]. - Other companies in the sector also showed strong performance, with New Hope expecting a net profit increase of 155.85%-164.07% and Zhengbang Technology projecting a profit growth of 249.03%-264.72% [11]. - Muyuan Foods, known as "Pig King," reported a substantial revenue increase of 34.46% and a net profit surge of 1169.77% for the first half of the year [11][12]. Market Conditions - The average price of live pigs has dropped significantly, with the price for external three yuan pigs falling to 13.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 31.69% year-on-year [3][7]. - The pig-to-grain price ratio has also declined to 5.78:1, indicating a severe compression of profit margins for pig farming [6][8]. Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated measures to stabilize pig prices, including the central frozen pork reserve collection [9][10]. - Policies aimed at reducing breeding stock and controlling production weights have been implemented to adjust supply and demand dynamics in the market [9][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the pig farming industry is likely to enter a phase of stable and high-quality development, with a focus on improving efficiency and eliminating outdated production capacity [12][13]. - The emphasis on cost control and production adjustments is expected to enhance the profitability and market position of quality pig farming enterprises [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the total social electricity consumption increased significantly, reaching 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and breaking through the one - trillion - kilowatt - hour mark for the first time globally. The pork price dropped slightly, and the national development and reform commission will carry out central frozen pork reserve purchases. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is cautious about the suggestion of extending trading hours [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to ten years ago. The pork price dropped slightly due to factors such as hot weather, weak seasonal consumption, and the release of second - fattened pigs. The national average pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range, and the government will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases [1] 3.1.2. Service Industry - At the HKEX's 2025 interim results meeting, there was a suggestion to extend trading hours. The HKEX is cautious about this and needs to consult all market participants as it has a significant impact on the market [2] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Black: The glass price dropped significantly. Agriculture: The egg price increased. Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas declined [3] 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: The PX operating rate increased. Energy: The coal consumption of power plants rose. Agriculture: The operating rate of pig products increased [3] 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities declined seasonally. Service: The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level [3] 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On August 21, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the egg price increased by 4.22%, while the glass price decreased by 3.80% [38]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage due to declining pork prices, which have been on a downward trend since early July 2023 [1][2]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Pork prices have been affected by weak demand and market sentiment, with the national average pork-to-grain price ratio falling below 6:1, entering a warning zone [2][5]. - The average price of lean pork in 16 provinces was reported at 18.08 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% week-on-week and 34.8% year-on-year [3]. - The average price of external three yuan pigs has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, with some regions seeing prices below 13 yuan per kilogram [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply pressures are significant, with the number of breeding sows remaining high at 40.43 million, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [3]. - Demand remains weak despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings, as high temperatures have kept pork consumption low [4]. Government Intervention and Market Impact - The government’s pork reserve is a crucial part of the food security system, with the latest storage plan involving 10,000 tons of pork, which is expected to stabilize prices and support market confidence [6][7]. - The storage of 10,000 tons is estimated to require the slaughter of about 200,000 pigs, which could alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices in the short term [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that pork prices will remain low with limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may see a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a new cycle characterized by smaller fluctuations and stable profitability [7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve collection due to a continuous decline in pork prices since early July, driven by weak demand and increased supply [1][2]. Price Trends - Since early July, pork prices have been on a downward trend, with the national average pork-to-grain price ratio falling below 6:1, entering a warning zone [2][8]. - As of August 19, the average price of lean pork was 18.08 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% week-on-week and 34.8% year-on-year [6]. Supply and Demand Factors - Supply pressures are significant, with the breeding sow inventory remaining high at 40.43 million, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [7]. - Demand remains weak, with low consumption during the hot summer months despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings [7]. Government Intervention - The government plans to collect 10,000 tons of frozen pork, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices [9][13]. - This collection is part of a broader strategy to ensure market stability and protect the interests of farmers [13]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that pork prices will remain low with limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [13]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may see a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a phase of "small fluctuations and stable profits" [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs is expected to have limited upward momentum in the short - term due to weak demand despite some price - holding intentions from the breeding side. The price of corn futures rebounded slightly, but the upside space is also expected to be limited [5][8] 3. Summary by Related Topics Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures closed at 14,135 yuan/ton last week, down 1.5% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 14.81 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of July 18, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was 90.89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 42.98 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 18.66 yuan per pig, a week - on - week decrease of 50.26 yuan. The pig - grain ratio was 6.17, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [5] - Market situation: The national live pig spot market was weak last week. Although there was some support from transportation and secondary fattening, the market was adjusted weakly due to the resumption of normal slaughter rhythm by breeding enterprises and weak demand. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction at the end of the second quarter was 40.43 million, 103.7% of the normal level. The inventory of medium and large pigs over 5 months old in June decreased by 0.8% compared with the previous month, indicating a possible decrease in slaughter volume in July and August [5] Corn - Futures: The C2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton last week, up 0.09% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16.57 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou, Bayuquan, and Guangdong Shekou all declined to varying degrees [6] - Industrial consumption: From July 10 to July 16, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1005 million tons of corn, a decrease of 57,300 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased by 1100 tons, and the output of corn starch increased by 800 tons. The DDGS industry's start - up rate decreased by 4.62 percentage points to 38.34%, and the output decreased by 9400 tons, a decline of 10.75% [7] - Inventory: As of July 16, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.27 million tons, a decrease of 3.74%. As of July 18, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.3 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 1.07 million tons [7] - Market situation: The national corn spot market continued to decline last week. The auction of imported corn was weak, but the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in North China rebounded after a continuous decline. The start - up rate of the corn starch industry was still at a low level, and the demand for wheat from feed enterprises decreased. With the new auction announcement, the decline of corn spot prices may narrow [8]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]

Core Viewpoint - The pork industry is facing significant pressure due to declining prices, with various companies reporting decreased sales revenue and a potential shift in policy aimed at stabilizing prices and improving profitability in the sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In May, TianKang Biological (002100) sold 229,700 pigs, generating sales revenue of 345 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.02 yuan/kg [1]. - From January to May, TianKang Biological sold a total of 1.2851 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 12.49%, with cumulative sales revenue of 1.902 billion yuan, up 4.22% from the previous year [1]. - Despite low pork prices, TianKang Biological managed to keep its breeding costs below 13 yuan/kg, allowing for profitability even with market prices at 14.02 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - As of June 10, the wholesale price of pork has dropped to 20.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.21% since the end of last year and nearly 27% from the peak in August of the previous year [1]. - The national pig-to-grain price ratio has been declining, falling from 7.95 yuan/kg to 6.29 yuan/kg, nearing the warning line for excessive decline [1]. - The government has initiated a reserve mechanism, with a plan to store 10,000 tons of frozen pork, marking the first storage action since 2025 [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that if recent policies to stabilize pork prices are fully implemented, the pig farming industry could return to normal profitability by 2025, with cost-competitive companies likely to achieve excess returns [2]. - The overall valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, with the Shenyin Wanguo pig farming sector's price-to-earnings ratio below the 10th percentile historically [3]. - TianKang Biological's current rolling P/E ratio is 12.45, the lowest in the pig farming sector, indicating potential for growth as the market stabilizes [3].