Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the spot price of pork is steadily rising, while the futures price has limited downside potential [3] Group 2 - Recent pork spot prices have shown a trend of oscillating upward, with the average price for live pigs in China reaching 6.58 yuan/kg on January 22, 2026, up from 5.79 yuan/kg on December 25, 2025, representing a cumulative increase of approximately 13.6% [5][6] - In Henan Province, a major pig production area, the price for external three yuan pigs was 13,200 yuan/ton (6.6 yuan/kg) on January 22, 2026, slightly above the national average, reflecting a 20% increase from 11,000 yuan/ton on October 15, 2025 [7][9] Group 3 - The number of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million heads, or 2.9%, indicating a slow adjustment in industry capacity that may impact future pork supply [10] - As of the end of December 2025, the total number of pigs in China increased by 0.5% year-on-year, ending a trend of consecutive quarterly declines, with a total of 43.68 million pigs [11][13] Group 4 - On January 22, 2026, the closing price for the main pig futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 11,600 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.09% increase from the previous trading day, indicating market optimism regarding future pork price trends [14][15] Group 5 - The latest data shows that the pig-to-grain price ratio was 5.51:1 on January 16, 2026, below the breakeven point of 6:1, suggesting that pig farming is currently unprofitable, which may lead some farmers to reduce breeding or eliminate capacity, affecting future market supply [16][18] Group 6 - Short-term expectations (1-3 months) indicate that due to storage policy expectations and the upcoming Spring Festival consumption peak, pork prices may continue to rise moderately, with live pig prices potentially reaching 7-7.5 yuan/kg [19] - Mid-term expectations (3-6 months) suggest that as the number of breeding sows continues to adjust and market supply-demand relationships improve, pork prices are likely to gradually return to reasonable levels, enhancing farming profitability [20] - Long-term outlook indicates that the pig market will continue to exhibit cyclical fluctuations, with price trends influenced by capacity adjustment speed, changes in consumer demand, and macroeconomic conditions [21]

Market Overview - As of January 9, the profit from self-bred and raised pigs is a loss of 11.54 yuan per head, improving from a loss of 34.59 yuan per head the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets is a loss of 2.31 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 48.35 yuan per head the prior week [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center reports that as of January 7, 2026, the price of live pigs is 12.67 yuan per kilogram, corn is 2.30 yuan per kilogram, and the pig-to-grain price ratio is 5.51. Compared to December 31, 2025, the price of live pigs has increased by 2.10%, corn prices remain stable, and the pig-to-grain price ratio has risen by 2.04% [1] Daily Market Prices and Forecast - The daily prices for live pigs across various regions show a range from 11.70 yuan per kilogram in Xinjiang to 13.38 yuan per kilogram in Guangdong, with most regions experiencing stability in prices [2] - Year-on-year comparisons indicate a significant decline in prices, with reductions ranging from 13.58% in Guangdong to 21.35% in Xinjiang [2] - The forecast for the next day indicates stability in prices across most regions, with some areas showing slight upward trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a peak in supply due to high pig slaughter rates, while demand is also increasing as the holiday season approaches, leading to a stable yet slightly rising trend in pork prices. Group 1: Pig Prices and Supply - Pig prices have slightly decreased, with a stable slaughter rhythm and alleviated overcapacity pressure. In October, the slaughter volume reached 38.34 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1] - The average market price for pork in November was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 19.7% year-on-year. The average market price for live pigs was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month and down 27.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pig Grain Ratio - The pig-to-grain price ratio has increased slightly to 5.44:1 in November, up by 0.07 points from the previous month, although it remains below 5.5:1. The price of feed corn was 2.43 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 3.3% year-on-year [2] - Farmers are facing losses, with self-breeding farmers losing an average of 80 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets for fattening losing about 270 yuan per pig [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - In October, China's imports of fresh and frozen pork were 71,100 tons, down 11.1% month-on-month and down 21.1% year-on-year, with an import value of 144 million USD, down 11.7% month-on-month and down 25.0% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative imports from January to October were 859,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while exports increased significantly by 51.6% to 33,200 tons [3] Group 4: European Market Trends - European pork prices have been declining for four consecutive months due to increased production, export obstacles, and seasonal consumption declines, with wholesale prices at 1,700.45 euros per ton, down 4.7% month-on-month and down 11.8% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Price Expectations - As the supply of pigs reaches its annual peak and with effective measures in place to control production, pork prices are expected to remain stable with slight increases leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by rising consumer demand during the holiday season [5]

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs as of November 19 is 12.24 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 1.61% compared to November 12 [1] - The wholesale market price of corn is 2.28 yuan per kilogram, which represents an increase of 0.88% since November 12 [1] - The pig-to-grain price ratio stands at 5.37, showing a decline of 2.36% from November 12 [1]

Market Focus - As of October 29, the national live pig ex-farm price is 12.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.59% compared to October 22 [1] - The main wholesale corn price is 2.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.88% compared to October 22 [1] - The pig-to-grain price ratio is 5.54, up 5.52% from October 22 [1] Industry Events - A hearing on anti-dumping cases related to pork and pork by-products was held by the Ministry of Commerce, attended by approximately 80 stakeholders including representatives from the EU and various countries [1] Profitability Analysis - As of the week ending October 31, self-breeding pig farming incurred a loss of 89.33 yuan per head, an improvement from a loss of 185.68 yuan per head the previous week [1] - The profitability for purchased piglets was a loss of 179.72 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 289.07 yuan per head the prior week [1] Market Trends - The live pig futures contract has reached a new low, with supply pressure suppressing the so-called peak season logic [3] - Previous rebounds were supported by secondary fattening, but the delayed pressure is expected to be released before the year-end, aligning with the anticipated oversupply [3]

Core Insights - The national pig-to-grain price ratio for the third week of October is 5.22, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 4.40% [1] - The national pig feed price ratio stands at 4.56, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.00% [1] - Current projections indicate that the average profit per pig in the future fattening model will be -281.88 yuan based on current prices and costs [1] - The average price of live pigs continues to decline week-on-week, driven by high supply and weak downstream demand [1] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing a decrease in slaughter volume, contributing to the oversupply situation that is pressuring pig prices downward [1]

Core Insights - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province has been declining, prompting the government to initiate frozen pork reserve collection [1] Price Monitoring - As of September 9, the average pig-to-grain price ratio was 5.93:1, entering the excessive decline warning zone [1] - By September 23, the ratio dropped to 5.64:1, remaining between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks, thus entering the second-level warning zone [1] - On October 15, the ratio further decreased to 4.98:1, entering the first-level warning zone [1] Government Actions - The Guangdong government plans to start frozen pork reserve collection to stabilize the pig market [1] - Slaughtering and processing enterprises are advised to take the opportunity to replenish their inventories [1] - Breeding farms are encouraged to manage their production capacity rationally [1]

Core Insights - On October 15, the average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province reached 4.98:1, entering the first-level warning zone for excessive decline as defined by a joint plan from five provincial departments [1] - In response, the Guangdong government will initiate the storage of frozen pork reserves to stabilize the live pig market [1] - The government also advises farming operations to make informed decisions to maintain stable production capacity and normal rhythms for both slaughtering and restocking [1]

Core Insights - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province has reached 4.98:1, entering the excessive decline warning zone as defined by a joint notice from five departments [1] - In response, the Guangdong government will initiate the reserve collection of frozen pork to stabilize the live pig market [1] - The government advises farming operations to make informed decisions to maintain stable production capacity and normal rhythms of market entry and replenishment [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Live Pigs and Corn" [1][2] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Tian Jinlian [3] Group 2: Live Pig Market Market Performance - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 12,140 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous week's settlement price [4] - Spot: The national average price of external ternary live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, down 1.03 yuan/kg week-on-week [4] - Profit: As of October 10, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.26, down 0.18 week - on - week [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Group farms continued to increase supply, and although some retail farmers had the psychology of delaying sales, the overall market supply did not decrease [4] - Demand: After the holiday, demand declined, and market transactions were weak [4] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the live pig market is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of farmers and the performance of secondary fattening [4] Group 3: Corn Market Market Performance - Futures: The C2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous week's settlement price; the C2601 contract closed at 2,125 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [5] - Spot: The national average price of corn was 2,308.43 yuan/ton, down 60.2 yuan/ton week - on - week [5] - Port: Prices at major ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port all declined [5] Industrial Consumption - Deep - processing: From October 2 to October 8, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, an increase of 31,700 tons week - on - week [6] - Starch: The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons; the weekly output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up from the previous week [6] - Alcohol: The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 54.96%, up 3.49 percentage points; the weekly production was 111,840 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 6.78% [6] Inventory - Processing Enterprises: As of October 8, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.334 million tons, an increase of 14.64% [6] - Ports: As of October 10, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 700,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 320,000 tons [6] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is gradually being listed, and the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has increased [7] - Demand: The operating rate of the industry is gradually increasing, and there is still an expectation of further improvement [7] - Outlook: In the short term, corn prices are still under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton on the futures market [7]