行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然格陵兰岛风波有所降温但媒体报道美国筹划对古巴和伊朗动手，美元指 数偏弱回落提振贵金属的计价货币因素，而且国际投行高盛将 2026 年黄金目标价 提升至 5400 美元/盎司，贵金属板块在短期回落之后再次集体冲高，伦敦黄金逼 近 5000 美元/盎司大关。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内 部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经 济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需求等因素影响下，20 ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of international political and economic restructuring, the Fed's loose monetary policy, improved global economic growth prospects, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while controlling position sizes. Short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4] - The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase significantly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market Conditions - Due to the US raid on Venezuela over the weekend and the capture of the Venezuelan president, which triggered significant geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector generally rose during the Asian session on Monday, with London gold returning above $4,400 per ounce. The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within the precious metals. [4] - Domestic precious metals showed varying degrees of increase. The Shanghai Gold Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai Silver Index rose 6.81%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index rose 10.66%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index rose 6.38%. [5] Medium - term Market Conditions - Trump's 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. [5] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold. The industrial demand for silver is boosted by the global green energy transition, and the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is expected to improve due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, strictly control position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as early as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US President Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and claimed that the US would take over Venezuela, but the US military has not gained control of Venezuela, and the Maduro government is still in power and unwilling to cooperate with Washington. [16] - Venezuela's state - owned oil company PDVSA has started to cut crude oil production due to the US oil embargo, and Chevron's oil shipments have also stopped since Thursday. [16] - India is asking refiners to report their weekly purchases of Russian and US crude oil, and it is expected that Russia's crude oil imports will drop below 1 million barrels per day. [16]